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I heard somewhere that the Edmonton Oilers’ run to the finals this spring justified a status-quo for the Maple Leafs in the current off-season.
It’s true that there have been many parallels between the Oilers and the Leafs in recent years.
Good. Management’s confidence in their core led Edmonton to a single Stanley Cup victory. By way of comparison, the Oilers’ 15 wins in 2024 represent more than the Maple Leafs’ number of playoff victories… in the last four seasons.
Faith hasn’t brought the two franchises to the same place.
I guess the logic behind this statement has to do with patience, consistency and confidence. I normally agree with these principles, which suggest that a championship team isn’t built in a single season, and that constantly changing the main ingredients only delays the development of the perfect recipe.
If your mix has too much flour, not enough eggs and a little too much milk, and this is the sixth time you’ve tried to achieve the consistency of a crêpe… Drop the vanilla essence and the cinnamon, and change your basic proportions .
So let’s start with common sense, that is, things that can be explained without the need for fancy statistics.
It’s obvious that the Oilers’ core gave the decision-makers reason to believe. Before reaching the Stanley Cup Final (not the ultimate goal, mind you), Connor McDavid led his team to the Western Final in 2022, only to lose to the champions in the second round in 2023.
The Panthers lost in the final before lifting the trophy. The Golden Knights played in two Final Fours and one Final before becoming champions. The Avalanche had reached the second round in three consecutive seasons before going all the way. And in the case of the Lightning, we’re talking about one final, two Final Fours and a tough loss to the Blue Jackets in the first round, before winning back-to-back rings.
One first-round series win in eight years isn’t adversity. It’s a series of failures that clearly require change.
You’ll understand that I don’t agree with the statement quoted in the first sentence.
First, let’s analyze the parties involved: the Oilers’ core, and the Maple Leafs’ core.
For the purposes of this exercise, let’s focus on the offensive base of the recipe. In Toronto, the window opens with the signing of John Tavares in 2018, since accompanied by Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander. In Edmonton, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are the only two forwards left from Connor McDavid’s rookie year.
1 – Mountains of cash (and what’s left of it)
A four-star core earning $46.65 million per season leaves less money on the table – $42.91 million – to build the rest of Toronto’s defensive brigade and goaltending tandem.
In Edmonton, the Oilers’ three forwards earn $26.5 million per season.
Even if you extrapolate to four players, you’re only looking at $35.3 million, more than 10.3 million less than the Leafs. And if extrapolation doesn’t do it for you, Zach Hyman earns $5.5 million, giving a figure of $32 million per season for the club’s top four forwards.
2 – Does Nuge belong in the conversation?
3 – The cream of the crop
Even if RNH is the worst of the seven, the Oilers have the best two of the seven. It’s not as if Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner live on the same planet as Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, when it counts.
The Leafs’ Core Four ? 3.44 points per game. Divided into four, I remind you.
4 – The cream of the crop
It’s even worse when it comes to puck distribution.
Connor McDavid (76 assists in 61 games) and Leon Draisaitl (57 assists in 61 games) combined for more assists per game (2.16) than Toronto’s top four players (2.09).
By distributing the puck, McDavid and Draisaitl (who are capable of scoring 50 or 60 goals if they want to) and Nugent-Hopkins (a natural passer) leave many more chances for complementary players to contribute significantly to the team’s success.
5 – Sharing is key
We’re getting close to something.
The Maple Leafs put a lot of pressure on their big guns to score goals. Over the past five seasons, the Core Four has scored more goals than the team’s other sixteen regular-season players.
In Edmonton, the McDavid-Draisaitl-RNH line was in a similar position from 2018 to 2023. Between the three of them, they were almost on a par with the Oilers’ seventeen other players.
And that’s when a complementary player – Zach Hyman, ironically a former Leaf – can get the opportunities he needs to become an impact player who still knows his role.
Let’s repeat: McDavid and Draisaitl can win the Maurice-Richard.
Through Connor’s legendary point haul over four intense playoff rounds, it’s worth noting that he scored just 8 of his team’s 86 goals. Even with Leon, the figure is only 18, or 20.1% of total production. Hyman (16), Nugent-Hopkins (7), Bouchard (6), Ekholm (5), Holloway (5), Henrique (4), Kane (4), Janmark (4), McLeod (4), Ceci (2), Brown (2), Nurse (2), Broberg (2), Perry (1) and Kulak (1) contributed a considerable team effort to what they accomplished.
It’s not impossible that they’d have us lie, but it seems obvious that a major change would be the next logical step.
So if Mitch Marner refuses to waive his no-trade clause, Brad Treliving’s hands are tied.
And the Oilers story shouldn’t be a glimmer of thoughtful hope for the Maple Leafs.
It’s hard to capture the essence of a team and the reasons behind its successes and failures, given the differences in composition and the balance to be struck between offense, defense and the goalie in front of your net.
The aim of this article, from a more attack-oriented angle, is simply to take a closer look at these two teams, both of which have undergone major rebuilds.
