David Reinbacher: 72% chance of playing 200 or more NHL games

The latest National Hockey League draft generated a lot of attention, obviously because of prodigy Connor Bedard, but also because of the other excellent prospects available.

But above all, we were all curious to know which team would draft the controversial prospect Matvei Michkov.

We finally had our answer, as seven teams (rather six excluding the Chicago Blackhawks, who selected Bedard) passed over Michkov, who ended up with the Philadelphia Flyers at No. 8.

This generated a great deal of reaction and criticism, especially in Montreal, given that the Canadiens drafted defenseman David Reinbacher rather than the Russian superstar.

One of the first justifications for this selection was that Reinbacher is a much more cautious choice, and that it’s virtually certain he’ll play a lot of games with the Bleu Blanc Rouge in the NHL.

Well, according to advanced NHL prospect statistics site HockeyProspecting.com, the CH was right to think Reinbacher had a good chance of playing many games in the NHL.

In fact, the site gives Reinbacher a 72% chance of playing 200 or more NHL games.

These are good odds, but they’re not the best for the prospects in the most recent draft.

Obviously, Bedard is first with 99%, but surprise (or not), the risky pick, Matvei Michkov, would have a 99% chance of playing 200 or more NHL games.

Well, well.

Of course, HockeyProspecting takes into account Michkov’s potential and talent, not all the risks associated with the fact that he plays in Russia and has a KHL contract for a few more seasons.

The 99% chance does not take into account the fact that Mishkov’s development in the KHL may not go well.

Michkov was left out of his team’s last game, something over which the Flyers have no control.

Still, it proves that Michkov has far more talent and potential than any other draft prospect besides Bedard.

Coming back to Reinbacher, 72% is very respectable and logical for the defender who is seen as a reliable source.

The Austrian was described as a complete defenseman who will always be reliable for his team and play big minutes for many years to come.

The CH thinks it’s got the defenseman it’s most likely to play a lot of games in the NHL, but according to HockeyProspecting, two defensemen are more likely than Reinbacher.

Mikhail Gulyayev (89%) and Lukas Dragicevic (78%) are ahead of Reinbacher, even though they were both drafted much higher than the CH prospect.

In fact, Gulyayev was selected 31st by the Colorado Avalanche (the CH traded for Alex Newhook) and Dragicevic was selected 57th by the Seattle Kraken.

So not all analyses saw Reinbacher as the defenseman most likely to become an NHL regular with ease.

In short, we can’t yet compare the careers of these players and their reliability and consistency in the best league in the world, the NHL, but these kinds of probabilities give us a good idea of what’s to come.

Let’s just say that Reinbacher had better perform if he wants to avoid CH fans revolting against the team’s management.

In a gust

– Please consult.

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– What a start!

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Thanks to Rodger Brulotte for this nice interview, more focused on my youth. Lots of memories and confidences 🙏

A must read👇https://t.co/qfEkqzyavm pic.twitter.com/UARBaRVlUa

– Pat Laprade (@PatLaprade) August 27, 2023

– A good first career start for Jordan Wicks.