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Michkov’s potential greater than Bedard’s according to advanced statistics model

The NHLP is an advanced statistical tool that attempts to project a prospect’s NHL point production potential into his prime, based on his performances in recent years.

The idea is to create a unit of measurement that takes into account all the differences between leagues, positions and a prospect’s age.

This statistic is based on the NHLe, a league’s conversion rate to the NHL. For example, 0.63 is the conversion rate from the SHL to the NHL, while it’s 0.80 in the KHL.

The problem with NHLe is that it doesn’t calculate long-term potential, only transition. That’s where the NHLe comes in, to try and fix this flaw.

Those are the broad outlines to give a little context. For full details, click here.

According to PNHLe, which ranks all prospects not yet in the NHL, Matvei Michkov’s offensive potential is slightly higher than that of Connor Bedard. He is predicted to score 155 points, while Bedard follows with 151.

Two things.

First, it’s very important to specify that Michkov’s passage with the SKA is not counted. I agree that it may not be representative, and that his loan spell in Sochi is more representative, but are we really going to completely ignore those three games so that the statistic is advantageous?

Anyway, the bottom line is that Mishkov’s potential is astronomical, despite the various doubts about him, and that the figures support this thesis.

Then, if you’ve looked at the rankings… Lane Hutson is ranked 4th among all prospects on the circuit, with an NHL production potential of 111 points. The downside is that defensemen have a factor of 1.3 when trying to compare them with forwards – so the real figure would be 85 points, which is still nothing to complain about.

Nonetheless, after a stellar season, he finds himself in first place among defensemen, ahead of David Jiricek.

Other interesting notes:

  • Gabe Perreault is the fifth-highest-ranked prospect in the 2023 draft.
  • Shane Wright is ranked 22nd and Juraj Slafkovsky is not in the top-30
  • The next Canadian on the list is Joshua Roy, ranked 37th (70 points), followed by Sean Farrell, 45th (67 points).

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