PNHLe measures NHL point potential in a prospect’s prime.
It is based on historical values & adjusts for age, production, league and position to normalize a player’s future value.
* Michkov’s value doesn’t include his games w/ SKA, which would decrease his value pic.twitter.com/IMpaTJbd9a
– Mason Black (@NHLRankKing) May 20, 2023
The NHLP is an advanced statistical tool that attempts to project a prospect’s NHL point production potential into his prime, based on his performances in recent years.
The idea is to create a unit of measurement that takes into account all the differences between leagues, positions and a prospect’s age.
This statistic is based on the NHLe, a league’s conversion rate to the NHL. For example, 0.63 is the conversion rate from the SHL to the NHL, while it’s 0.80 in the KHL.
The problem with NHLe is that it doesn’t calculate long-term potential, only transition. That’s where the NHLe comes in, to try and fix this flaw.
According to PNHLe, which ranks all prospects not yet in the NHL, Matvei Michkov’s offensive potential is slightly higher than that of Connor Bedard. He is predicted to score 155 points, while Bedard follows with 151.
First, it’s very important to specify that Michkov’s passage with the SKA is not counted. I agree that it may not be representative, and that his loan spell in Sochi is more representative, but are we really going to completely ignore those three games so that the statistic is advantageous?
Anyway, the bottom line is that Mishkov’s potential is astronomical, despite the various doubts about him, and that the figures support this thesis.
Then, if you’ve looked at the rankings… Lane Hutson is ranked 4th among all prospects on the circuit, with an NHL production potential of 111 points. The downside is that defensemen have a factor of 1.3 when trying to compare them with forwards – so the real figure would be 85 points, which is still nothing to complain about.
- Gabe Perreault is the fifth-highest-ranked prospect in the 2023 draft.
- Shane Wright is ranked 22nd and Juraj Slafkovsky is not in the top-30
- The next Canadian on the list is Joshua Roy, ranked 37th (70 points), followed by Sean Farrell, 45th (67 points).
– News in two races.
Hearing that #Flyers Associate Coach Brad Shaw is among those still in the running for the Head Coaching jobs in Anaheim and Washington.
– Anthony Di Marco (@ADiMarco25) May 21, 2023
– An important role.
– Guillaume Lepage (@GLepageLNH) May 21, 2023
– All the way from Mauritius!
Matthew Tkachuk is the 3rd player in NHL history to score an OT goal in each of the 1st 2 games of a playoff series and the 2nd to do it on the road. The other was Hall of Famer Maurice Richard for the Canadiens in the 1951 Semifinals. pic.twitter.com/F5IgcCoSTN
– ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 21, 2023