If you were Kent Hughes, would you target Kreider or Marchenko?

Tony Patoine
If you were Kent Hughes, would you target Kreider or Marchenko?
Credit: Capture d'écran/Twitter

So it seems that Chris Kreider, a “fan favorite” in Montreal since 2014—and THE player Trevor Timmins would have drafted in 2009 instead of Louis Leblanc, had it not been for those very same fans—is on the verge of returning to the East.

Rumor has it—with “rumor” primarily coming from Renaud Lavoie—that the Habs could be very interested in him, given that during his long stint in New York, he forged very close ties with some key figures on the Habs: Martin St-Louis, Jeff Gorton, and the director of medicine and performance as well as head sports therapist, Jim Ramsay.

At 35, Kreider is still worth his weight in gold, as evidenced by his 22 goals and 50 points last year with the Ducks. His -4 rating was in line with the average for his team's forwards, and he still looks fairly good in the rest of the advanced statistics, although he was somewhat “protected,” starting more than 62% of his shifts in the offensive zone.

At this stage of his career, Kreider is a statistically “solid” third-line winger; he's still fast, physical, very steady on his skates, and creates space in front of the net, where he remains an effective scorer at 6'3”, 232 lbs.

While he may not be the player he was in his early thirties, he would still bring another dimension to the Canadiens' second line.

And best of all, he'd cost the organization nothing but Mr. Molson's money.

In short, for a year—or two, or three—at no cost and in the right role, Kreider could serve the Canadiens well, much like Corey Perry, another specialist in the crease, has been able to do in recent years with various teams.

The other beast… 

Although he, too, stands 6'3” and weighs over 200 lbs, at just 26 years old and at the peak of his career, Kirill “The Thrill” Marchenko is obviously a different kind of beast… and would cost quite a bit more.

Marchenko is far superior to Kreider when it comes to creating scoring chances, and his WAR (Wins Above Replacement) stands at a very respectable 2.53 according to hockeystats.com, whereas Kreider's 1.08 doesn't exactly set the world on fire.  

However, last year, when Kreider was on the ice, the Ducks generated slightly more shots than when Marchenko was on the ice for the Jackets, even though the latter was given even more favorable offensive zone faceoffs than the former Duck, with 66.5% of his faceoffs starting in the offensive zone, compared to about 62% for Kreider.

While not terrible, Marchenko wasn't a particularly effective shooter last year, converting only 27 of the 45 expected goals he was projected to score. The opposite was true for Kreider, who—generally shooting from closer range—converted 15.8% of his shots into goals, while the Russian had to settle for a more modest 12.4%. But he also took 79 more shots than the American—an average of more than one shot per game…

In short, if the Habs have what it takes to satisfy Don Waddell and are willing to offer a “reasonable golden bridge” to retain Marchenko's services next July, he would be far from a bad hockey player.

What would an acceptable offer look like for Waddell?

The Jackets' general manager is well aware of the loss in production that his star player's departure would entail. We're talking about roughly 30–35 goals and between 65 and 75 points per season—and there's no reason to believe that, under more favorable circumstances, the Russian wouldn't be capable of even better numbers.

In addition to a quality prospect, it's safe to assume he wants players who can produce right now.

Mathias Brunet suggested this week that the Habs “would likely be willing to part with their top prospect, Michael Hage, or Alexander Zharovsky, along with a first-round pick and another prospect” for the Jackets' star.

Even if that doesn't seem to meet Waddell's demands, from the Habs' perspective, they'd be crazy not to part with Zharovsky, a first-round pick, and another prospect.

But would they let Hage go instead of Zharovsky?

Much, much, much less certain…

At the same age—Hage won't turn 21 until next spring—he seems slightly ahead of Marchenko. The 21st overall pick in 2024 also plays center, a more challenging and crucial position than wing.

Let's also remember that Marchenko was originally a more modest 49th overall pick for Columbus in 2018 and managed only 25 points in 59 games upon his arrival in the NHL at age 22. Then, for what it's worth, he clearly wasn't the best forward at the 2020 World Junior Championship, as Hage was last winter…

In short, aside from Zharovsky, I'm not quite sure who the “other prospect” in such a trade might be, but I'd be willing to give up another good one—as long as his name isn't Hage, Fowler, or Reinbacher.

Zharovsky, Bolduc, and a first-round pick—would you do it?

Bolduc can play right now and score around 20 goals, and he's still improving. A market with less pressure could also work in his favor.

In the long run, Zharovsky could become the key player in the trade, but we'll have to be patient.

As for the first-round pick, it should be viewed as a “formality,” as Caïus Pupus would say.

But if Waddell—who's in a bit of a bind, and he knows it—is dead set on getting players who can play and produce right now, in addition to the first-round pick, he could also pick out, say, two or three players from a pool consisting of Kirby Dach, Bolduc, Kapanen, Struble, Xhekaj, and Engstrom.

Will he get more than that elsewhere?

And what about the contract?

Marchenko, as we know, is a client of Dan Milstein, who has maintained an excellent relationship with Kent Hughes for several years now.

Milstein—who, among others, represents Demidov, Texier, Zharovsky, and Pugachyov—is well aware of the philosophy behind the Habs' salary structure: winning above all else. Players who want to sign a long-term deal with the Canadiens should expect to leave a few dollars on the table.

In a case like Marchenko's—who will be one year away from full free agency next July—what might an acceptable “Montreal-style” contract look like?

If he's looking for a deal that would pay him more than $14 million a year, the Habs would probably be better off passing on him. Even in today's market, Marchenko isn't worth that much.

That would be about the same salary as Connor Bedard and more money than Leon Draisaitl!

Whoa, that's a lot!

But if Marchenko wants to settle in Montreal with a long-term contract that would pay him around $10–12 million per season, that would be a good deal for everyone.

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