CF Montréal Can’t Afford to Lose to the Forge

Yesterday, there was only one name on everyone's mind in Montreal when it came to sports: the Canadiens.

The young Sharks were in town, Jakub Dobes was trying to reclaim his spot as the number-one goaltender, and the Habs were looking for their first regular-season win this season at the Bell Centre.

Unfortunately, young Macklin Celebrini had the last word, Jakub Dobes (truly) didn't reclaim his starting goaltender spot, and the Canadiens still haven't won their first regular-season game in front of their fans. That will have to wait until October 31 against the Penguins…

Today, the sports story of the day in Montreal has nothing to do with the Canadiens, who even have the day off from practice. It concerns CF Montréal.

The Impact, currently in last place in the MLS Eastern Conference—and on track for the worst season in its MLS history—will be playing for a trophy at Stade Saputo. Gabriel Gervais told me two years ago that winning a trophy was the ultimate goal of a season at CF MTL. It would certainly be something if the club were to achieve its ultimate goal (along with the Canada Cup), even while enduring the worst season in its history.

But still, that's the scenario the Impact finds itself in today.

CF Montréal and Forge: Two Leagues… and Different Trajectories

CF Montréal is at the bottom of a league stronger than the CPL.

The Forge, on the other hand, is at the top of a league weaker than MLS.

Which is better?

CF Montréal has won only two of its last 12 games across all competitions.

The Forge, on the other hand, hasn't lost a single game in over two months (12 matches). And they've just racked up three straight wins, including two clean sheets (3–0 and 5–0).

We can all agree that when it comes to confidence and momentum, the Forge has the edge.

Except that the Forge struggled immensely to eliminate FC Supra (2–1) and CS St-Laurent (3–2) in the previous two rounds of the Canada Cup. CF Montréal, on the other hand, has just eliminated the best team in the competition (the Whitecaps).

CF Montréal has an interim coach who is highly unlikely to be back in 2027, while the Forge has relied on Bobby Smyrniotis since its first season in the CPL in 2019. The Forge's identity is clear, and its stability is evident.

On the field, CF Montréal has players with a combined value estimated at over 34 million euros, according to Transfermarkt. The Forge, on the other hand, has players with a combined value estimated at just under 4 million euros.

Want more comparisons?

CF Montréal's payroll is currently around 10 million USD. The Forge's? It's about 1.3 million CAD. So Prince Owusu alone earns more than the entire Forge team, once the USD–CAD conversion is made.

As for player experience, you might think CF Montréal has the edge, but no! The average age of CF Montréal's starting XI is 25.8 years
. The Forge's? 27.3 years! It would have been even higher if Kyle Bekker hadn't suffered a serious injury and retired.

Who will win?

In 2021 and 2023, CF Montréal knocked the Forge out of the competition. In 2021, it took about ten penalty kicks—including one by goalkeeper Sebastian Breza—but they still managed to pull off the win.

However, 2024 and 2025 were more challenging for the Impact. They were eliminated over 180 minutes with an aggregate score of 3–2. And they didn't even manage a win at Stade Saputo during the 90 minutes at home!

So the big question on everyone's lips this morning is: Who's going to win tonight?

Mise O Jeu has CF Montréal as the heavy favorite (1.82 vs. 4.25). In fact, I explained to Gavino De Falco (IMFC Radio) on Monday why CF Montréal simply couldn't lose. Under any circumstances!

However, the Forge has stacked the odds in its favor by arriving in Montreal two days before the game rather than the day before, as is customary.

The Forge decided to arrive in MTL two days before the Final, not the day before. #CFMTL https://t.co/BHOabSGdnl

— Maxime Truman (@MaximeTruman) October 20, 2026

And no one spotted any Forge players at Cathcart, Flyjin, or Palma—are those places too expensive for CPL players?

Although the people hanging out there probably wouldn't have recognized the Forge players anyway…

The Forge has nothing to lose, while CF Montréal has everything to lose. Philippe Eullaffroy reiterated this during Monday morning's press conference.

Kickoff is set for around 7:00 p.m. tonight at Saputo Stadium. The stadium won't be full, but there should still be enough fans to create an electrifying atmosphere.

We're in for some excitement tonight. It remains to be seen whether it will be positive…

If CF Montréal wins, they'll lift a trophy that will secure their spot in the CONCACAF Champions League and provide some consolation for what has been (yet another) extremely difficult season for the team's fans.

On the other hand, if the Impact loses to the Forge for the third consecutive year, it will be a disaster. And we could see some emotional outbursts…

See you at the stadium later?

Extra Time

– If CF Montréal manages to qualify for the CONCACAF Champions League, it will have to play a home game in February. For now, there is no stadium in the Montreal area ready to host such a competition. The Impact may therefore have to play its home game in Florida or elsewhere further south.

– What would your starting XI be if you were Philippe Eullaffroy? Mine:

Rios – Owusu – Synchuk
– Longstaff – Sanchez – Piette
– Petrasso – Vera – Neal – Bugaj
– Breza

I don't want to see guys who don't “care,” like Dani Pereira…

– Sebastian Breza told the media he doesn't view the match as a rematch of the games from the past two years. Samuel Piette, on the other hand, said the opposite yesterday on BPM Sports. Every player has his own way of looking at things and approaching each game.

– One day, a CPL team will win the Canadian championship. It's going to happen. I just hope it won't be tonight. Although it was a playoff game against the Forge that forced CF Montréal's management to write us a letter last year. Another loss would clearly force other consequences…

I'm afraid a win might obscure the facts and prevent the Montreal front office from seeing that something is seriously wrong in MLS.