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Nine months after tearing his ACL at Arrowhead in a crushing defeat to the Los Angeles Chargers that seemingly ended the Kansas City Chiefs dynasty, Patrick Mahomes walked back onto the same field and helped Kansas City flatten Denver 31-10 to kick off the new campaign. The 6-11 mess of 2025 now looks like a detour.
Mahomes and Allen Return to Form
The Chiefs came from behind in the fourth quarter to edge the Raiders 30-27 in Las Vegas, took their Week 5 bye at 4-0, then brushed aside the Chargers 22-6 on Sunday to remain the AFC’s only unbeaten side. Kenneth Walker III, signed from Seattle in March, has 665 rushing yards, an NFL record for a player’s first five games with a new team, leaving Mahomes, past 1,300 passing yards, free to pick his moments.
Josh Allen has done it the harder way. Third in MVP voting last season after Buffalo surrendered the AFC East to New England, he has dragged the Bills to 5-1 despite a 29-26 home defeat to those same Patriots. The 37-34 overtime win over the Rams, built on 210 passing yards and 121 rushing yards, ended his 0-7 career record in overtime, and two touchdown passes in a 33-30 win in Las Vegas drew him level with Jim Kelly’s franchise record before the Week 7 bye.
Online betting sites now make both men frontrunners to win the MVP award this term. The popular 7Signs online casino and bookmaker prices Allen as a +185 favourite to win the MVP award, with Mahomes a +850 third-favourite.
Both look like genuine Super Bowl contenders. But while those two stars have returned to form, three other quarterbacks who were supposed to have blockbuster years of their own have headed sharply in the opposite direction.
Justin Herbert
What does it say about Justin Herbert that he started the season with the same MVP odds as Mahomes? The sixth overall pick in 2020 and Offensive Rookie of the Year delivered back-to-back 11-win seasons under Jim Harbaugh, yet he’s 0-3 in playoff games after January’s 16-3 wild-card loss at New England, capping a 2025 of 54 sacks and a fractured left hand. Mike McDaniel replacing Greg Roman, with Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt healthy again, was supposed to unlock him.
Instead, the engine never turned over. Arizona and Las Vegas, two of the worst teams in the league by consensus opinion, both beat the Chargers 26-14, with the Raiders game bringing two interceptions and three fumbles. In Buffalo, leading 13-10 early in the fourth, Herbert forced a ball to C.J. Gardner-Johnson at the goal line, and Tom Brady told Fox viewers it was “poor awareness, poor decision.”
Seattle and Denver followed, then Week 6’s 22-6 loss in Kansas City: 204 yards, no touchdowns, one interception. He now has five touchdowns, eight interceptions, 21 sacks, and a sub-60 completion rate. Kurt Warner, on The Rich Eisen Show, wondered, “What is he looking at?”
Not all of it is on Herbert. Slater and Alt were both hurt in Week 4, and the Chargers are 0-6 for the first time since 2000. The playoffs are almost certainly out of reach, and considering the upcoming schedule, a miserable 0-9 start looks to be a distinct possibility. Protecting the ball and finally clicking with McDaniel is the task now.
Baker Mayfield
Traded away by Cleveland and waived by Carolina after going first overall in 2018, Baker Mayfield rebuilt his career on a 2023 prove-it deal in Tampa: A Divisional Round run, two Pro Bowls, two NFC South titles and 41 touchdowns in 2024. Then 2025 delivered a 6-2 start, and the former Oklahoma Sooner was suddenly the MVP favourite. His side would go on to lose seven of their next nine and miss the playoffs.
In the summer, Mike Evans left for San Francisco, Zac Robinson arrived as his fourth offensive coordinator in four seasons, and a contract standoff ended days before the opener with a three-year, $165 million extension. Tampa were still division favourites.
So, how does a team hand its quarterback that kind of money and then watch him miss three games within a month? It started with three lost fumbles in a 33-27 loss in Cincinnati, a defeat Mayfield personally took responsibility for.
A week later, his final throw towards Emeka Egbuka sailed long in a 23-19 home defeat to lowly Cleveland. Against Minnesota, he was sacked six times, and in the dying moments of a 23-16 loss, his throwing hand struck Blake Cashman’s arm, dislocating his thumb. Tampa were 0-3 for the first time since 2014; he’d managed 615 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels has gone 1-2 since, leaving the Bucs 1-5 and the extension looking expensive. Yet the story can still turn back on that thumb. Todd Bowles said Mayfield was finally expected to practice in the build-up to Week 7, and Carolina lead the division at just 3-2. The upcoming clash in Charlotte is the chance to make it a race again.
Cam Ward
Can a No. 1 overall pick shake the bust label in his second season? Cam Ward’s rookie year was brutal, with a league-high 55 sacks, but 3,169 yards, 15 touchdowns, and seven interceptions hinted at more, and he threw 10 touchdowns against one interception over his final eight starts. Tennessee then hired Robert Saleh as head coach and Brian Daboll as offensive coordinator, gave Wan’Dale Robinson a four-year deal, and drafted Carnell Tate fourth overall, providing their supposed franchise QB with the attacking arsenal to finally deliver some wins.
Instead, the Titans lost their first five, including a 12-7 defeat to the Giants in which they opened with five straight three-and-outs before Ward threw an end-zone interception with 17 seconds left. A 24-18 loss in Baltimore followed, then 26-3 to Houston with just 187 total yards, after which Ward said flatly, “No, I’m not a loser.” Week 6’s 26-20 win in Indianapolis leaned on Joey Slye’s four field goals and a blocked-punt touchdown, not Ward’s 11-of-22 for 102 yards. He has one 200-yard game in six, with four touchdowns and four interceptions.
Jarvis Landry said on the 4th and South podcast that, as an offensive coordinator, he’d be “afraid of this kid,” and Warren Sharp noted Ward was blitzed on just 20.5% of dropbacks, the league’s lowest rate, yet ranked 35th in yards per attempt.
Saleh’s answer has been blunt: “Cam is our starting quarterback.” At 1-5, this is a development season, and only a sustained run of games will quieten the debate.
