Three Big MLB Surprises of the 2026 Season So Far

The 2026 MLB season has had it’s far share of surprises. Both good and bad. For Canadian fans, the Toronto Blue Jay’s poor form after much preseason hype will be top of the list, but for the most the surprise contention of the Tampa Bay Rays and the Chicago White Sox are probably the biggest talking points.

This is what you need to know about the biggest surprise packages.

Tampa Bay Rays Top the American League East while Blue Jay’s Struggle

One of the biggest surprise packages of the year undoubtedly comes from the AL East. Before the season, few sportsbooks and analysts could pick between the Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles or the Red Sox to take the division this year. Most discounted the Tampa Bay Rays. Yet it is the Florida team that top the standings at this relatively late stage of the season.

Luck and close calls have played a part sure. But record-breaking Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda have all done bits this year for the Rays, when no-one gave them much of a shot. With the Yankees falling apart due to injuries, and the Toronto Blue Jays disappointing once more, its the Rays league to lose as this point.

Meanwhile the Jays. Much was pinned on Canadian hero Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at the start of the season for the Toronto team, after an impressive preseason including eight home runs. But so far he hasn’t hit that peak form fans remember him being capable of. His averages suggest he will improve, but it could be too little too late for the Jays once again.

MLB still has a strong following Canada, despite the Blue Jay’s struggles, and it is a popular sport for betting on across the country. 2026 storylines have produced plenty of betting angles, and upsets and surprise packages can have significant upside for bettors who stay on top of developments.

Currently Canadian bettors are in a fragmented national market. So they often turn to resources like Oddspedia’s list of the best sportsbook promos Canada offers, for the lowdown on what’s available. These sites offer information on not only bonuses but market depth, odds comparisons and payment options – which can heavily influence bettors choices when there’s a lot of competition.

When odds are constantly being recalculated, especially at a pivotal point in the season approaching the trade deadline, such information can swing opportunities for sports bettors in the know. Interestingly, despite the Blue Jays 40-46 record, some sportsbooks are still pricing them fairly close to the 49-33 Rays to be MLB winners.

Odds vary but you can get the Blue Jays to win the World Series at as wide as +2800 or around 3.4% implied probability. While the superior-record Rays have a low end of around +2500 or 3.8% implied. Which is a very narrow difference given their form comparison, and suggests the market either has no faith in the Rays or thinks the Blue Jays will improve. More likely the former, but it’s hard to tell.

National League Central Teams are Stronger than Ever

At the beginning of the season, many would have had the AL East pegged as being the league’s most competitive division. But, after at least 80 games played by all teams, it is the NL Central that has been the real points engine of the league.

All five teams in the division are still in the race for playoffs, and four teams have a .500 or more winning record.

The St. Louis Cardinals’ Jordan Walker has been among the division’s revelations, finally coming good on his top prospect status from a few years ago. Rookie JJ Wetherholt has also impressed, after an offseason in which the St. Louis team faced a big rebuild and several veteran losses. So, all in all, the Cardinals have been one of the bigger surprises of the season so far and could still take that even further.

Between 2022 and 2024 only one team from the NL Central made playoffs. In 2025 that was three, and this year it could easily be four.

Even the Pittsburgh Pirates, who had the official worst scoring record in the league last season, have turned things around and currently have a top 10 offense for the season. Brandon Lowe and Ryan O’Hearn have stepped up a gear in the careers, and Spencer Horwitz has been getting career high averages across the season.

The White Sox Resurgence is Still On

The legendary Chicago team have been one of the biggest disappointments of the past few seasons in the MLB, losing more games than any other team. In 2024 they set an unwelcome record, losing 121 games across the season.

However, 2026 looks like the year the White Sox might finally turn it around. They currently top the AL Central with a 45-40 record and have won six from their last 10. That puts them well in playoff contention,

The improvement of Tristan Peters, who has been both offensively and defensively sound all season, has been a big factor in the Sox’s surprise resurgence. As has been the (recently-injured) Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami and his home run power.

Even if the Sox’s season ended without a playoff place, the improvement so far would still probably be considered a success given recent standards.