Hockey

5-on-5 efficiency: Ivan Demidov and Oliver Kapanen are subject to regression
Félix Forget
5-on-5 efficiency: Ivan Demidov and Oliver Kapanen are subject to regression
Credit: YouTube

Since the start of the season, Ivan Demidov and Oliver Kapanen have been paired on the same line. The two kids, who had shown great things together at the rookie camp, had the opportunity to repeat the experience in the regular season.

And generally speaking, it works quite well.

What's impressive, though, is that both rookies are scoring a lot. Kapanen has scored eight goals so far this season, while Demidov has six.

What we've noticed, though, is that both kids are a bit lucky. In fact, when you look at the percentage of shots converted into 5-on-5 goals since the start of the campaign, Demidov and Kapanen have the two highest percentages in the NHL this season.

In concrete terms, this means that both guys are scoring a little over their heads at the moment. And that makes them subject to regression.

It's a similar situation to that of Jake Evans last year, when he was scoring non-stop in the first few months of the year. That said, it was all due to a (very) high efficiency rate… and his goal production eventually plummeted for the rest of the season.

It would be a miracle if both kids continued to convert 17-18% of their shots into 5-on-5 goals for the rest of the season. Eventually, that rate will drop.

That said, there's still plenty of reason for optimism, especially in Demidov's case. We know he's a very talented kid… but he's often afraid to shoot.

Even if his efficiency rate drops, increasing the number of shots means that Demidov is likely to maintain a relatively similar level of production. Especially since, in his case, he also plays big minutes on the powerplay (unlike Kapanen or Evans).

What's clear is that we have to be cautious before thinking that the two youngsters will continue to score as often. Because right now, it's true, they're a bit lucky.

Keep an eye on them.


Overtime

– An injury to keep an eye on.

– Of note.

– Transaction in the MLB.

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