How do the Blue Jays stack up against the American League? MLB Postseason predictions!

Before we take a look at the competition, we’ll analyze some strengths, weaknesses, and trends that help make up the identity of this Toronto Blue Jays team.

The Jays aren’t a power team; they haven’t been all season long. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has just started finding his power after managing just 13 home runs in his first 102 games, and his 20 dingers are the most on the team, with Barger and Springer both with 18, and Bo Bichette four away at 16. After combining for 77 combined home runs in 2021, the “power duo” of Vladdy and Bo is projected to combine for fewer than 50 this season.

Toronto’s “struggles” with power prove that the team isn’t thriving on individual performances. The Blue Jays lead the league in five offensive categories: hits, team batting average, on-base percentage, strikeouts, and line drives. Toronto is dominating with smart hitting, not power. The Jays aren’t hot, they’re thinking. The Jays aren’t really struggling on the power side; they’re just playing small ball, and it’s working.  

As much as the Jays team offence and defence both stack up admirably against the league, the most glaring issue is relief pitching. Toronto has the eighth-worst relief pitching in the league by WAR, ERA, and hits allowed. It’s an issue the Jays knew about (see the acquisition of Louis Varland at the deadline) and improved on already, but it’s still something to note.

If you’re going to be weak in bullpen depth, though, you need to have a strong starting rotation; something the Jays do. Jose Berrios, Gevin Gauseman, Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt and Eric Lauer are a mighty fine five, and if Shane Bieber gets healthy and ready, it could be one of the best rotations in baseball. I should also add that I think the Jays’ bullpen is better than the statistics imply. The Jays have serious strikeout power in the bullpen and have had success all season long relying on their relievers. You can’t lead the league in comeback victories with an incapable bullpen. What the Jays lack are elite individual players, not good pitchers.  

This Toronto team makes you think that they’ve caught lightning in a bottle. Realistically, what we’re seeing is a team mentality coming to fruition through players buying in and a front office that is in tune with management. The Blue Jays aren’t glaringly weak in any place; they’re also not individually dominant – they’re dedicated to their approach at the plate and have collected a roster of players willing to play ball.    

The Red Sox are sitting a game back of the Mariners for the fourth seed in the American League, making them the second most likely team to face the Blue Jays mathematically, but I believe by the end of the season, the Red Sox will finish in the fourth seed.

The Red Sox present a threat and an opportunity for the Blue Jays. Streaky, but offensively explosive, and slightly too reliant on top-of-the-lineup hitters, the Red Sox represent everything the Jays aren’t, while possessing some of their weaknesses.

In a five-game series, Toronto has three clear advantages over the Red Sox: starting pitchers, infield defence, and offensive efficiency. With Shane Bieber in the lineup, Toronto could have a pitcher with ace potential pitching in all five potential games of the ALDS. Toronto’s infield defence has shone this season, with Alejandro Kirk, Andrés Gimenez, Ernie Clement, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. all putting together positive defensive metrics.

The defining factor in a series between the Red Sox and the Blue Jays may be the Red Sox’s streakiness. So far this season, Boston has put together four winning streaks of more than seven games; they’ve also had two losing streaks of five or more games. They’re one of only two teams currently in a playoff spot with that level of volatility. When the Red Sox are hot, few teams can stop them; when they’re cold, they get rolled over.

The final step in projecting a matchup between these two teams is to examine their season records, which Toronto dominates. The Blue Jays own a 7-3 record against the Red Sox this season, but in those 10 games, they have only outscored Boston 45-44, thanks to two blowout victories for the Red Sox, making their run differential slimmer than it should.

The Red Sox are exactly the kind of team that Toronto should want to face in the ALDS – in a five-game series, I think their offence falls apart.  

My prediction: 3-1 Blue Jays series win.

Ah, the ‘Stros, everybody’s favourite team to hate. Houston is currently sitting third in the American League with a winning percentage of .561. Similar to the Jays, the Astros have a well-rounded offence that’s somewhat lacking in power. Where they differ significantly is their team defence. The Jays have one of the better defensive infields in the MLB, and their outfield defence has also been among the top in the league over the last two months.

Offensively, these teams are relatively similar, with the top-of-the-lineup batters owning similar statistics. Both teams boast lineup depth that can bail out their stars when they falter, and both squads have been consistent over the last three months.

On the pitching side, with a healthy Shane Bieber, I think Toronto could have the edge with its starting squad. Still, Houston certainly has the better bullpen and if Toronto is Bieber-less, certainly a better rotation as well. Statistically, the Astros have the second-best relief pitching crew in the league, and their starters aren’t far off; both have performed better than the Blue Jays’ all season.

In a matchup between these squads, both teams would be wary of similar trends. Both teams boast starting pitchers capable of taking over a game and lineups that can come together to dominate with stifling on-base percentages. The Astros have yet to lose to the Blue Jays this season, owning a record of 3-0 and a run differential of 16-2. This is the team the Jays should be scared of.

My Prediction: 3-2 Astros series win

Led by three power bats, the Mariners currently sit tied with the Red Sox for fourth in the AL. The Mariners are a dark horse coming out of the American League. They’ve been fantastic as of late, and the history between the Mariners and Toronto may lie dormant in the heads of the Jays, but Seattle isn’t a perfect team by any stretch of the imagination.

The Mariners might be one of the hardest-hitting teams in the league, but their chase rate is ridiculous. Seattle has 10 per cent more strikeouts than the league average without having a single player in the top-20 of strikeout percentage, meaning it’s not an individual, it’s a team mentality. That being said, it’s the only glaring weakness that Seattle has. Elite power hitting, dominant defence in the outfield, and a starting rotation capable of stealing games make Seattle a legitimate threat, not a pretender.

The trick for Toronto will be not to overextend its starters early in the series. The Blue Jays’ swing-and-miss ability comes from their bullpen; let them take the rudder and steer the ship. The Blue Jays offence has proven that they’re resilient; get on base and overwhelm.

What Toronto needs to be careful of is the explosiveness. Cal Raleigh is putting together one of the greatest seasons of all time at his position. In a matchup against the Mariners, Toronto needs to get through the bottom of the lineup cleanly every game because Seattle’s big three are that good.

My Prediction: 3-2 Blue Jays series win

Seeing the Yankees in the ALDS would be… surprising to say the least, but New York currently owns the sixth seed in the AL, so it’s certainly mathematically possible.

The Yankees have been in freefall for more than a month, having just slowed their fall over the last ten days, winning six of their last nine, though they’ve been taking advantage of the bottom of the AL.

Much like the Mariners, the Yankees are a power squad led by one MVP-calibre hitter. On paper, the Yankees look significantly better than the Mariners, but plate struggles from new arrivals and shockingly bad team defence have left the Yankees just nine games above .500.

The only factor I see swinging this series in favour of New York is if Toronto’s hitters have trouble with the Yankees’ relief squad. The Yankees will find a way to get runs across; Toronto will have to produce at their offensive average to win this series.

That being said, when you add the fact that the Rogers Centre has been a nightmare for New York so far this season, seeing the Yankees in the ALDS would most likely bring an expectant smile to Blue Jays fans’ faces. The Jays are better than the Yankees this season, that’s just a fact.

My Prediction: 3-1 Blue Jays series win

The Tigers have been the team to beat in the American League so far this season, and for good reason. They have the best pitcher in the league this year in Tariq Skubal, and an incredibly well-rounded offence that also features an individual player with enough pop to take over a game.

Though the Tigers and Blue Jays have similar strengths, they differ in one key aspect: much like the Mariners and Red Sox, the Tigers strikeout a ton. Detroit has the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the MLB at more than 23 per cent. With a bullpen full of strikeout pitchers, it’s a weakness the Jays can take advantage of. Much like the Mariners, the Jays should look to be conservative with their starters and lean on their relievers to get the job done.

The Tigers are sitting half a game back of the Blue Jays in the American League. I expect these teams to be the top two seeds, though I’m unsure which will win the league. It’s very possible we see these teams in the ALCS, and in a seven-game series, it could go either way. The dealbreaker between these two teams will probably end up being high-end pitching talent.

My Prediction: 3-2 Blue Jays series win

All statistics credited to mlb.com; baseball-reference.com; and statmuse.com