It is important to be careful with Evans: His shooting efficiency percentage is not normal

At 28 years old, Jake Evans is having the best season of his career.

He is on pace for over 45 points, and it is also the last year of his contract with the Canadiens.

Now, Kent Hughes has to make an important decision regarding his center. Do we extend his contract, or do we take advantage of his value to get something in the trade market?

There is a “strange” aspect to Evans’ game this season: he is scoring more goals than usual, placing him today at 3rd among the top scorers for the CH (tied with Brendan Gallagher and Emil Heineman).

What stands out is his shooting percentage, which stands at 28.6% since the start of the season.

Evans has scored 10 goals on only 35 shots:

Jake Evans file: is this a breakout or an anomaly on his part? pic.twitter.com/0tUK5q8der

— L’Antichambre (@Antichambre) January 10, 2025

My colleague Maxime Truman talked about it on the radio yesterday on the show with Georges Laraque and Stéphane Gonzalez (BPM Sports), but this can’t last forever.

Evans may be on fire… but no bottom-6 NHL player can maintain that pace for several years.

There are a few exceptions, but even the best NHL scorers have a lower success rate (see the category highlighted in yellow to the right of the chart below):

Does this take credit away from Jake Evans? Absolutely not.

But we also need to be realistic in saying that he hasn’t become one of the most efficient scorers in the NHL overnight.

He will have to slow down sooner or later…

Evans’ situation – even though it isn’t exactly the same – reminds me of Rafaël Harvey-Pinard’s in 22-23.

The Quebecois finished the season strong with 14 goals in 34 games at a success rate of 24.1%, but the following season, he only managed two goals in 45 games with a success rate of 7.7%.

The difference is quite striking…

In the end, we simply need to be cautious with the projection of Jake Evans’ next contract.

It’s true that he is having great moments and, still, all the credit goes to him…

However, we shouldn’t necessarily expect his offensive production to remain similar or increase in the coming years. Because if we look at his numbers since the beginning of his career, he is not having a season like the others.

In Brief

– I love goals scored this way.

KJ ALL DAY

A six-goal night but #91 takes home the @FanaticsBook Goal of the Game! pic.twitter.com/La87aTtaSW

— Columbus Blue Jackets (@BlueJacketsNHL) January 10, 2025

– There is tension between the Sens and their fans. [TVA Sports]

– To be continued.

Time is running out. https://t.co/HsR1XhMMfL

— Passion MLB (@passion_mlb) January 10, 2025

– Emotional reading.

My friend Jean-Paul, already a year! @RDSca https://t.co/2LxCEXnAKp

— Yvon Michel (@yvonmichelGYM) January 10, 2025