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Adam Engstrom: more likely to make it in the NHL than Logan Mailloux, according to Byron Bader’s model

 Matthew Garcia
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Adam Engstrom: more likely to make it in the NHL than Logan Mailloux, according to Byron Bader’s model
Credit: Capture d'écran / Screenshot

It’s shaping up to be another very interesting training camp for the Montreal Canadiens at the start of next season.

It’s going to be exciting to watch the internal battles for a place in the Habs line-up, with a number of young players in action.

Owen Beck, Oliver Kapanen and Emil Heineman, among others, will be on the attack, but it’s on defense that the action will be most interesting.

As everyone knows, the Tricolore has far too many defenders, so management and Martin St-Louis will have to make some heartbreaking choices.

If nothing moves between now and training camp, there should be only one spot available on defense, as the Habs won’t want to lose Jordan Harris and Justin Barron to the waivers for nothing.

Mike Matheson, David Savard, Kaiden Guhle, Arber Xhekaj, Jordan Harris and Justin Barron should all be in the NHL, barring any surprises.

And if logic holds, Lane Hutson will be added to this group, as he’s currently the favorite to take the last spot on the Tricolore’s defense, since the ideal is generally to have seven defensemen in the NHL.

In short, this situation could certainly frustrate Logan Mailloux’s fervent supporters, who will be disappointed that the right-handed defenseman isn’t playing in the NHL.

However, Mailoux may not be as close to the NHL as many think.

In fact, he’s even less likely to make the NHL than another fine young Habs defenseman, Adam Engstrom.

(Credit: HockeyProspecting.com)

According to Byron Bader’s model, who closely follows the development of all National Hockey League prospects, Engstrom has progressed much better than Mailloux in recent seasons.

Currently, Mailloux has a 38% chance of establishing himself in the NHL, while Engstrom has a 59% chance.

However, in their respective draft years, Mailloux was at 40%, while Engstrom was at 22%.

Mailloux has stagnated, while the Swedish defenseman has progressed.

Obviously, this is just one model among many, and it’s clearly not an exact science or the infallible truth, but it’s interesting to analyze nonetheless.

Engstrom is a highly underrated prospect in the Habs’ bank, so it’s interesting to see a model that highlights him.

The Swedish defenseman could very well surprise at the next training camp, when he’ll be battling with all the other young defensemen, including Mailloux, for a place in the NHL.

The most likely scenario, however, is for both defensemen to play in the AHL with the Laval Rocket.

The two could even form a pair, given that Mailloux is right-handed and Engstrom left-handed.


Overtime

– What an incredible victory for the Canadian, who advances to the semi-finals.

– Less than a second separated the top-3. I’ve rarely seen that.

– Interesting.

– Not to be missed.

– Another match to watch in the next few minutes.

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