Top-15 habs prospects | 1st place: “The Brute” Juraj Slafkovsky

If you’re just wondering why I still consider Juraj Slafkovsky a prospect despite his 121 games of NHL experience, reread the first text in our series!

For the rest of you, dive in!

The decision was made to develop Slaf with the big club at the age of 18, a bold move just as his draft had been in the minds of many “fans”… of Shane Wright!

Even last fall, at the age of 19, following a stellar start to the season, Slafkovsky’s decision to play in Montreal was still not unanimously supported. I was among those who questioned it, until everything turned in his favor in the space of a few weeks, and he was paired with Suzuki and Caufield!

In any case, two years after being drafted first overall in 2022, and even after a dominant second half of the season, if not a first NHL symphony at 19-20, there’s still the feeling that many still underestimate Slafkovsky.

On the one hand, some take offence when we talk about Slaf as a future superstar or dare to compare him to the “sacrosanct” Tkachuk brothers, archetypes of new-style power forwards, as if it were impossible for this type of player to exist in Montreal!

On the other hand, the drafting of the new sensation, Ivan Demidov, generally perceived as more talented than the Slovak – I agree that his potential is perhaps higher – also helps to reinforce this idea of Slafkovsky taking a back seat.

But when you look at the big picture, it would be premature to place the young Russian ahead of the big Slovakian horse, and completely unjustified not to put Slaf in the same category as the Tkachuk and the best power forwards of his generation at the same age…

But why?

Because many don’t take into account conclusive statistical comparisons, underestimate Slaf ‘s development curve and/or perhaps don’t really watch the games!

In short, many fans don’t realize just how rare and valuable his profile is, and that the assurance that he’ll reach his potential has almost already become a certainty in the minds of management, as evidenced by the 8-year, $60.8 million contract he’s just signed.

In short, as Eliotte Friedman sees it, the Habs could well have a monster in their forward line-up from the very first game of the season…

1. Juraj Slafkovsky

Potential: 37.5/40
Insurance: 19/20
Utility/Rarity: 28/30
Trade value: 9/10

Total: 93.5/100 (highest score in the history of this tally!)

Potential
It’s not often that we change our assessment of a player’s potential from one year to the next in these rankings, but that’s the case here with the big #20.

We demonstrated several times last season that, at the same age, Slafkovsky had absolutely nothing to envy the best power forwards of his generation, and here we’re talking about the crème de la crème: Draisaitl, Rantanen and the two Tkachuk brothers.

The stats at the same age are there. The swag is there. The talent is there. The playing style is there. The efficiency is there.

And let’s not forget that Slafkovsky hasn’t even reached full physical, technical and tactical maturity yet.

As we can already anticipate with the number of fights he wins along the ramps, very soon, few players will be able to take the puck away from him or move him near the net. Many probably won’t even try.

Even if it’s not always spectacular, his physical dominance is a game-breaking skill : it allows him to regularly make plays that would be unthinkable for others.

Statistically, after recording almost a point per game in the^2nd half of the season, many – myself included – are expecting around 70 points from him next year.

And as for his comparables, if he maintains his current curve, I now estimate that his optimal offensive potential could oscillate between 90 and 110 points within a few years.

A true superstar. A true game-breaker.

Juraj Slafkovsky IIHF Men’s WC

Point 0 of 10

(this one is pre-tournament) pic.twitter.com/2HAXuYZOVF

– Shaun (@shaun_has_em) May 7, 2024

Insurance
With the mind-blowing, steady progress he showed us last year – it was almost as if he was taking a new step in his development every 15 games – you’d have to be crazy to bet against his chances of reaching his full potential in the more than reasonable future.

That’s why he deserves a spectacular 19/20 in this category.

Unless he suffers a major injury – remember that he didn’t miss a single game last year while playing robustly – it’s hard to see how he couldn’t become the dominant player of one point per game and more that the most optimistic saw in him in 2022.

Even so, the way he plays and his stats, comparable at the same age to the best players of his style, generate a great deal of optimism and confidence that he will reach his potential.

As mentioned above, his bosses are certainly convinced too.

Value in use

This is where Slaf stands out from many of its in-house “competitors” in this countdown.

The “Brute” is unique within the organization and is an arch-rare specimen throughout the NHL.

Slafkovsky has clearly demonstrated that he can make others better simply by being around them. Suzuki’s and Caufield’s production increased dramatically after he was moved to their line, and who knows what kind of season Dach might have had if he’d been with him all season.

Unlike many of his teammates, Slaf seems to be able to score in many different ways. Sometimes with spectacular goals, sometimes by deflecting shots with his knickers, sometimes with smashing one-timers.

What a fucking one timer shot by Juraj MF Slafkovsky!

To quote Pierre Houde: “What a cannonball!” pic.twitter.com/RY6IfvZrTn

– /r/Habs (@HabsOnReddit) October 30, 2022

But, like Rantanen and Draisaitl, he’s also a savvy director capable of executing plays ultra-quickly for his teammates.

What’s more, at 6’4 and 223 lbs, he can skate like a train, dominating along the ramps as well as in front of the net, and starting to be “a pain in the butt” to his opponents, as Shakespeare would say.

Add to that the fact that, sooner or later, he’ll have to play down low, as has been anticipated since he was drafted and compared to Marian Hossa, and you’ve got one of the most complete and terrifying forwards in the entire NHL. Bob Hartley recently agreed.

In short, he’s the kind of guy who could win you a lot of games in the playoffs.

He’s gold.

A contract that speaks volumes…

And speaking of gold bars and value in use, what about his “bargain-basement” contract for his bosses!

Like some of the Toronto Leafs’ star players, Slaf and his agent could have played a lot harder at the negotiating table.

Having been selfish, they could just as easily have demanded much more money than Suzuki and Caufield.

After all, Slaf is a first overall pick who fully deserves to have been selected at this level. He began his career at 18, was already a dominant NHL player at 19 and, all in all, possesses an extremely rare and sought-after profile. All facts and arguments that his two team-mates couldn’t use in their own negotiations.

At 19, he was even better than Suzuki and Caufield on most nights in the second half of the season…

But rather than be greedy or play the prima donna, Slaf preferred to ” win in Montreal ” and, for the good of the team, generously left at least $1.5 million on the table, because it’s quite clear to me that he’ll easily be worth $9, even $10 or $11 million, per season before long.

That too is the mark of a champion. #Crosby

Anyway, can we nail this guy?

Mind you, the Habs may have tried to do just that by opting for Demidov, who shares many of these qualities despite his more modest size.

We’ll see…

Trade value

Considering all the parameters, very few hockey players on the planet today would clearly have a higher trade value than Slafkovsky.

There are only a handful of them, and no more.

In fact, one on one, I’d see just four McDavid, Mackinnon, Makar and Bedard as clearly having a higher market value than him.

Considering his talent, character, physical size, age AND contract, if you’re a GM having to negotiate with the salary cap :

Slaf or Marner?

Slaf or Matthews?

Slaf or Rantanen?

Slaf or either Tkachuk?

Slaf or Draisaitl?

Slaf or Kucherov?

Slaf or Barkov?

Slaf or Celebrini?

Well, that’s it.

Whether or not we answer Slaf to these questions, we’re in these waters with him.

In other words, we’d have to offer Kent Hughes the Moon and part of Mars to get our hands on his young Slovak star.

Conclusion

So here’s our top-15:

1. Juraj Slafkovsky
2. Ivan Demidov
3. Lane Hutson
4. David Reinbacher
5. Jacob Fowler
6. Michael Hage
7. Kaiden Guhle
8. Joshua Roy
9. Adam Engstrom
10. Arber Xhekaj
11. Logan Mailloux
12. Justin Barron
13. Cayden Primeau
14. Owen Beck
15. Jakub Dobes

We can divide this group into a few thirds:

1. The third of future superstars: Slafkovsky, Demidov and potentially Hutson… in his own way!

2. One third of potential stars : Reinbacher and Fowler, more sober “defensive” stars, but you need them…

3. One third of potential impact players: Hage and Guhle. Guhle is already one when healthy, and we may be a little conservative with Hage here…

4. The third of good complementary players: Roy, Engstrom, Xhekaj, Mailloux, Barron, Beck, Primeau, Dobes. In my opinion, these are players with the potential to become above-average league players at their position, field hockey players at the very least worthy of the first round of their respective drafts or close to it.

All in all, it’s a damn fine top-15, which may well be bolstered by two more first-round picks next June…

In short, even if there were a few who underperformed expectations, the Habs won’t be badly hurt. There’s too much quantity and quality on the roster to miss out.

Some (Oliver Kapanen? Goalie Evgeny Volokhin? Florian Xhekaj? Big sniper Tyler Thorpe?) could also surprise us, let’s not forget!

And if we add the other members of the young core who have already reached their full potential or close to it, Suzuki, Caufield, Laine, Dach and Newhook (a fine mix of players well above the average), it looks like we’re well on the way to enjoying ourselves for many seasons to come in Montreal.

Perhaps even as late as June in the not-too-distant future…

As always, I look forward to hearing from you on Facebook and Twitter!