World Series: The Brewers Are the Favorites

On Friday night, the 2026 World Series will kick off. The series will feature a showdown between two small-market teams, as the Brewers and the Rays face off to see which team will win its first-ever World Series.

On Tuesday night, our colleague Charles-Alexis Brisebois set the stage for the series by analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of both teams.

What we do know, however, is that we're in for a showdown between two top-tier teams. Both clubs finished first in their respective leagues, and on paper, it seems a bit difficult to pick a clear favorite.

The specialized website Fangraphs, however, has attempted to do just that using its mathematical models. And according to the models' predictions, the Brewers are the favorites.

They estimate that the Brewers have a 57.3% chance of winning the championship, compared to 42.7% for the Rays.

One might think that the Brewers' stellar season (they won 103 games, compared to 98 for the Rays) is a factor explaining this difference, as is the fact that the Brewers just swept the powerful Dodgers.

The Guardians, with all due respect to their great season, aren't in the same league.

But of course, baseball is more than just a simple rule of three. Even if the Brewers are the favorites, that doesn't mean the Rays don't stand a chance—we're all on the same page there.

The only real advantage the Brewers will have starting Friday is home-field advantage. The rest will be decided on the field.

Created by humans, assisted by AI.