Blue Jays: An Unsustainable Pace for Playoff Hopes

Time is running out if the Blue Jays want to make the playoffs.

Is it impossible? No. After all, right now, John Schneider's team is 2.5 games out of the playoffs. And when you look at it that way, it's a realistic challenge.

But let's put things into perspective.

As journalist Mitch Bannon (The Athletic) noted in an article, the Blue Jays might need about 85 wins—if everything goes well—to make the playoffs.

The American League is weak in 2026. Last year, it took 87 wins.

To get there, the team will need to win 40 of its final 66 games of the season. That's a pace of 98 wins over 162 games.

Right now, the Rays (who lead the American League) are on pace for 97 wins out of 162 games in 2026.

In other words? If the Blue Jays want to have even the slimmest hope of making the playoffs, they'll have to overtake five teams and outperform the 2026 Rays.

That's a more pessimistic way of looking at things than just saying the team is 2.5 games away from the playoffs, isn't it? #LetTheNumbersSpeak

To make that happen, here's how the team will line up its starting pitchers.

The team will play 13 straight games from July 17 to 29. The White Sox (3) and the Rays (4) will visit Toronto before a six-game road trip to Boston and Washington. It won't be easy.

July 30 is a day off, and the Blue Jays will then face the Cardinals in a three-game series (in Toronto) before the trade deadline on August 3.

Based on those games—likely after the series against Washington—Blue Jays management will have to decide whether the team will sell or buy at the trade deadline.

And according to Mitch Bannon, a sell-off could be painful.

“The team needs to turn things around before August, or the roster could lose key pieces.” – Mitch Bannon on the Blue Jays

Could Kevin Gausman and Daulton Varsho end up finishing the season elsewhere?

Will the team, which has had its ups and downs, be able to step up at the right time to show it can make the playoffs?

Let's just say we have our doubts. But then again, who would have bet on a nine-game winning streak by the Red Sox?

There are still plenty of 2025-era players on the team to keep the ship afloat. But the vibe is so different compared to last year…

Created by humans, assisted by AI.