After speaking again today with my well-informed source (the one who told me about the #CH ‘s strong interest in Beckett Sennecke at the beginning of May, which was later confirmed), the team has apparently begun to narrow down its list of candidates for the…
– Marc-Olivier Beaudoin (@MOBeaudoin1) June 21, 2024
A decisive pick at No. 5: Is the Habs just ONE player away from an elite core?
Auteur: Christopher BrownYou’re already familiar with my analysis that, in reality, the roots of the Habs rebuild go back very clearly to 2018, with the acquisition of Suzuki (and Tatar!) in return for then-captain Max Pacioretty.
Notwithstanding the surprise Stanley Cup final in 2021, you’re still enjoying the renovations of the previous owner of your house, aren’t you?
You also know my other theory that it takes about a dozen top-15 equivalent players – or at least 12 better-than-league-average players at their position, if you prefer – to make it among the real contenders.
It’s been proven time and again over the past 15 years that when quantity and quality aren’t there, or aren’t there anymore, a club can’t win.
There’s a world of difference between the champion Avalanche of 2022 and the Avalanche of the following two seasons. Departures, salary cap, injuries, off-ice problems, no new talent to take over…
Look at the Oilers and Panthers in the final. They’ve finally managed to combine the two success factors, even if in an ideal world we’d probably like to have a little more depth in Edmonton…
What’s the habs rebuild all about?
It’s the backbone that lengthens and solidifies over time.
That’s what it’s all about:
That’s about 12 players (counting Fowler) who are all already well on their way to being in the top-15 discussion of their respective draft year.
And I haven’t counted Xhekaj, undrafted, who, in his own way, wouldn’t be far off the top-15 in 2020.
But while quantity shouldn’t be a problem, we’re right to question the quality of Montreal’s core; ideally, it takes another superstar to make the dough rise.
Suzuki, Caufield, Dach (when healthy) may be part of the “star player” or top-5-worthy conversation in 2017 and 2019, but no one is going to confuse them with the Barkovs, Tkachuks, Draisaitls and McDavids who are being plucked off the ice these days…
That’s why that other5th overall pick in 2024 is so important, and why a home run would be welcome, as we discussed on Thursday in our mock draft, which received a lot of good feedback, by the way. We thank you all!
According to Marc-Olivier Beaudoin and Grant McCagg’s sources, these are the four players the Habs are considering for the5th spot.
So, according to these sources, mathematically (!), it won’t be a choice to be one of these four players!
We’re getting close…
But let’s take a closer look.
For the purposes of this exercise, and without adding the 5th overall from 2024, let’s compare the Habs’ 2-3-year anticipated core with those of the 2024 finalists as objectively as possible, noting the value of the players in this way:
Category |
Value (points) |
Generational | 20 |
Elite/superstar | 15 |
Star | 10 |
Impact | 8 |
Complementary | 5 |
Of course, we’ll have to make a few projections, especially in the case of some of the Tricolore’s young players, but it will remain realistic, even conservative in the eyes of some:
Categories / Cores | Montreal | Edmonton | Florida |
|
|||
|
McDavid | ||
Elite/superstar | Slafkovsky | Draisaitl |
|
Star | Suzuki |
|
Reinhart |
Impact |
|
|
|
Complementary | Newhook
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|||
|
|
||
Star |
|
Ehkolm |
|
Impact |
|
|
|
Complementary |
|
Broberg |
|
Total core value | 13 players: 107 | 12 players: 118 | 13 players: 114 |
Conclusion
Unless you want to get bogged down in details, it’s easy to see that the addition of an elite player like Demidov/Buium or, at worst, another star player (Lindstrom? Sennecke? Iginla?) would put the Habs in a very interesting position, seemingly on a par with the best out there.
And let’s not forget that the Habs still have two more first-round picks slated for 2025, and that theaddition of a Patrik Laine, or something like that, is still a strong possibility. The core could even grow a little…
So, without claiming that our methodology is perfect and that we’ve just demonstrated “scientifically” that the Tricolore will certainly have a core worthy of a real contender within three years, it’s still very difficult toargue in good faith that this analysis is completely in the ballpark!
Since we’ll have to keep feeding the beast this summer (!), it will certainly be interesting to repeat this exercise after the draft and anticipated transactions, by comparing the Flanelle’s core to that of a few competitors who are also trying to position themselves among the logical contenders, like Buffalo, for example…
Don’t be shy about telling me I have rose-colored glasses and that I smoke too much and discuss the issue in a respectful manner on Facebook or Twitter!