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The Jets are one defeat away from clarifying the portrait of the choice sent to the Canadiens.
Credit: Photo by Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images
The Canadiens will draft twice in the first round of the next draft. Will that sentence still be true on draft night?

The Canadiens’ first right to speak is their own. Based on their poor season, Kent Hughes’ club currently has an 8.5% chance of winning the lottery, which takes place next Tuesday. #PourriPourCelebrini

As a reminder, here are the Tankathon rankings. It’s very detailed, but there’s an inactive club logo in sixth place.

(Credit: Tankathon)

As for the second first-round pick in the Habs’ hands, it’s the Jets’, obtained in the deal that sent Sean Monahan to Manitoba to finish the season.

To find out where the Habs will be drafting, we’ll have to wait and see what the Jets have in store for the playoffs.

What you need to know is that the 12 teams that lose in the first or second round will draft between 17th and 28th. The 12 teams will be ranked from best to worst according to regular-season standings, with a few exceptions.

This means that the Capitals (the worst team in the playoffs, who were eliminated yesterday) are the only team in the entire NHL to know where they will be drafted: 17th. But the rest is still up in the air.


As you can see, the Jets have the NHL’s fourth-best regular-season record. What this means, theoretically and according to what is often circulated, is that if the club loses in the first two rounds, it will have either the 28th, 27th, 26th or 25th pick to offer the Canadiens.

Remember that the Jets are one loss away from losing to Colorado in the first round.

That said, since the Hurricanes and Rangers can’t both survive the second round, there will be at least one top-3 team this season that doesn’t make the final four.

The Winnipeg Jets (still in the popular scenario where they too lose before the semi-finals) wouldn’t get the 28th pick: it would be between picks 25 and 27.

And since Dallas isn’t in a strong position in the first round, the Jets could aspire to 26th if the Stars don’t make it through the first two rounds of the playoffs either.

But let’s not forget that if the Panthers or Canucks don’t reach the Stanley Cup semi-finals, and the Jets don’t either, Winnipeg’s pick will be better than those clubs’.

Why would that be?

Because the division champions will draft after the clubs that didn’t win their division from the teams that won’t make the playoffs.

The result? In the best of all possible worlds for the Habs, if the Canucks, Panthers, Stars, Hurricanes and Rangers don’t advance to the final four, the Jets will draft 23rd – if they lose before the semi-finals.

If Winnipeg loses before the Final Four (remember, this is the key to avoiding drafting between 29th and 32nd), each club on the list in the previous paragraph that would advance to the Final Four would move the Habs’ pick back one spot.

Now you know who to pick in the playoffs.

For those who forgot, if the Jets win the Stanley Cup in 2024, the Habs will have a third-round pick in 2027. I’m not holding my breath on that, though.

In gusto

– Of note.

– Really?

– Will he be back soon?

– There…

– Incredible.

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