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NHL’s worst contracts: 2 Canadiens among honorable mentions

Every year, Dom Luszczyszyn’s model causes a stir with his famous ranking of the NHL’s worst contracts. Of course, any ranking that doesn’t take common sense into account will inevitably attract its share of debate. Here’s where you have to be careful: Dom doesn’t claim to have the absolute truth at hand. The rankings are purely statistical and are as close to reality as possible.

It’s worth noting, however, that Nick Suzuki was 9th in the ranking at this time last year. The model still gave him a 35.3% probability of success, the best rating in the top 10.

Josh Anderson was among the honorable mentions last year, along with David Savard.

This summer, Anderson is in, Savard is out, and Brendan Gallagher makes a not-too-surprising entry in the end-of-article mentions.

With 4 years left at $6.5 million a year and 34 points in his last 93 games, it’s surprising that Gally isn’t in the real top-10. By comparison, Brayden Schenn (6.5 x 5) is ranked 6th and Ryan Strome (5 x 4) is eighth. Even Josh Anderson (5.5 x 4) could have made the cut.

Top-10 or not, Gallagher’s contract will continue to age poorly and he may find himself higher up next year, unless his health deteriorates and he ends up on the long-term injured list.

Understandably, the ranking is done in such a way that the excess monetary value is the index of a contract’s success (or rather, failure). According to the model, the Blackhawks will spend 41 million too much compared to what Seth Jones will actually bring them, for example.

For the complete list, we invite you to read The Athletic’s excellent article, which details the statistical reality of each of the players mentioned, as well as offering a projection of their value over the next few years.

Interestingly, Jonathan Huberdeau enters the list at number three after a difficult season in Calgary, on the eve of his 30th birthday.

The rest of the top-5 (Jones, Parayko, Vlasic, Seguin) looks pretty much the same as last year.

Canadian veteran Ben Chiarot, who was 10th last year, remains among the honorable mentions.

In a gust

– Interest in Chucky.

– Difficult.

– Patrice Bergeron on his retirement.

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