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The 2026 Major League Baseball season isn't over yet, but in two months, the free-agent market will open ahead of a potential—and likely—lockout. By then, the hot topic will be where ace pitcher Tarik Skubal will end up and how much he'll sign for on his next contract.
And just yesterday, Jeff Passan of ESPN shared insights on the upcoming free-agent market, and one thing that stands out is that if there is no salary cap (and there won't be), an MLB team could be willing to pay Skubal as much as $500 million.
The figure will be enormous. Keep in mind that Skubal will turn 30 in November, and never before has a pitcher aged 30 or older received more than the $245 million Stephen Strasburg received (on a seven-year contract). Assuming there is no salary cap, Skubal could get double that amount. A contract of this magnitude would likely span at least a decade. But someone is going to pay an exorbitant sum for his services. And he'll be at the center of the salary cap debate in the meantime, because only a handful of teams are interested in paying $50 million a year for 33 starts.
Coming from one of the most respected voices in the baseball world, we have to assume this possibility is more than real.
Free agency is less than two months away—and it's an underwhelming group. Tarik Skubal, three Japanese stars, and question marks about how quickly things will move with the lockout set to begin on Dec. 1. Free on ESPN: How the class of 2026–27 stacks up. https://t.co/cOHKPO8tDn
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) September 10, 2026
No matter how much Skubal ends up earning, it will be absurd for a 30-year-old pitcher who just had elbow surgery.
Granted, when he's at his best, he's truly dominant—he won the American League Cy Young Award in 2024 and 2025 and led the league in WAR and ERA both years. In addition, he led the Manfred Circuit in strikeouts in 2024 and hasn't finished a season with an ERA higher than 2.80 since 2022.
But is that worth $500 million, considering the inherent risks? In today's market, perhaps. But in reality, no.
Currently, the largest contract awarded to a pitcher in total value is Yamamoto's $325 million deal, signed before the 2024 season. The Japanese pitcher just turned 28 on August 17 and secured this massive contract at age 25—not in his thirties.
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