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The New England Patriots find themselves in a paradoxical situation heading into the 2026 NFL season.
After surprising the world by reaching the Super Bowl in Mike Vrabel's first year as head coach, the team is now ranked among the underdogs according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).
The analytical index, designed to predict future performance, gives the Patriots only a 2.7% chance of winning the Super Bowl, placing them 14th in the NFL. Meanwhile, their AFC rivals, the Buffalo Bills, lead the way with a 10.7% chance, ranking first in the conference. The Los Angeles Rams lead the overall rankings with 14.9%, while the Seattle Seahawks, champions of the last Super Bowl, stand at 7.0%.
ESPN notes, however, that this assessment isn't necessarily a harsh judgment on the team. According to Seth Walder, the Patriots' previous season was marked by a relatively easy schedule and favorable playoff matchups against the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos—who were without Bo Nix. These factors may partly explain why the FPI sees them dropping in the rankings.
Despite these cautious projections, the New England franchise bolstered its offense this summer, notably with the acquisition of star wide receiver A.J. Brown, formerly of the Eagles. This addition could transform the passing game—considered the team's strength—and increase its chances of long-term success.
The Patriots: Underdogs but with Potential in 2026
Despite their “long-shot” status, the Patriots remain contenders: they have a 6.7% chance of returning to the Super Bowl and a 2.7% chance of winning it, according to the FPI. In the AFC East division, they trail the Bills with a 30.6% chance of winning the division compared to Buffalo's 67.6%, but their potential remains significant for those who believe in Drake Maye's talent and the new offensive dynamic.
This season, Patriots fans will need to closely monitor the performance of the revamped offense and the team's ability to transform itself from underdogs into genuine contenders for the title.
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