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Four Habs things: Guhle vs Struble | Slaf vs Rantanen | Extend Dvorak? | Ranking 25 and under
Tony Patoine
Four Habs things: Guhle vs Struble | Slaf vs Rantanen | Extend Dvorak? | Ranking 25 and under
Credit: It’s been a long time since we’ve discussed the team. We have a lot to talk about on several topics. Second coffee, let’s go! Guhle is better than Struble, but… I’ve always been a fan – a moderate fan, but a fan nonetheless – of Jayden Struble. In the summer of 2019, during my first […]

It’s been a long time since we’ve discussed the team. We have a lot to talk about on several topics.

Second coffee, let’s go!

Guhle is better than Struble, but…

I’ve always been a fan – a moderate fan, but a fan nonetheless – of Jayden Struble. In the summer of 2019, during my first evaluation of the American in my annual ranking of the most important prospects of the Habs, I ranked him 6th, even though he had been modestly selected in the 2nd round (46th) a few weeks earlier.

Of course, the selection of a superior defenseman with similar qualities like Kaiden Guhle in the 1st round (16th) the following year made him fall in the organization’s hierarchy.. and in my rankings.

But I still support much of what I said in March 2021, when he was 12th :

Guhle is Struble but better overall with much more assurance of reaching the NHL […]. In other words, Guhle’s ceiling is undoubtedly a little higher than Struble’s, but it’s mostly his floor that is clearly higher.

In addition to Guhle’s arrival, Struble had also suffered significant groin injuries in his first two seasons at Northeastern, not to mention the Habs’ depth on the left side of the defense.

At the time, in addition to Guhle, Romanov, Harris, and even Norlinder (!) were still in the picture and could take away some of the anticipated value from Struble. And we haven’t even talked about the very sturdy Edmundson and Chiarot, who both signed good deals with the Habs and weren’t exactly old.

In short, from a rare phenomenon within the organization in 2019, Struble had become a depth defenseman among others a year and a half later.

But, without making noise, he perfected his game in defense at university, had a seamless transition when he arrived in Laval in March 2023, and quickly earned a call-up to Montreal the following November, receiving praise for his solid and straightforward play.

Struble is still the mobile, physically strong, mean, and robust defenseman we know. But playing little this season, he had lost some confidence in his zone and poise with the puck, he who had been drafted for his offensive qualities.

Now, taking advantage of Guhle’s injury to play on the left of Lane Hutson, he was able to break out of his shell and is currently having his best moments in the NHL. We’re seeing the Struble who is agile on skates, comfortable on the blue line, capable of superb transition passes, and can also take good wrist shots without warning.

If so, the Rhode Island native has accumulated 7 points in his last 16 games, similar statistics to Guhle’s best moments in the NHL; a production of 36 points in 82 games.

Both also show similar overall production this season: 12 points in 46 games for Struble, 14 points in 45 games for Guhle. The points per 60 minutes are also almost identical.

Of course, Guhle starts many more shifts in his territory (63.5%) and plays many more minutes on average per game (21:14).

But Struble didn’t look too bad playing around 20 minutes in his last few games before Guhle’s return.

In short, Guhle still seems superior to Struble, especially in defense. But I believe the American has nothing to envy with the puck on his stick, on the contrary. So, in the end, I wouldn’t put these two defensemen in different galaxies.

Whether in Montreal or elsewhere, if given the opportunity, it’s not impossible that Struble, 23, will one day become a perfectly fine 4th defenseman. At worst, a very good 5th. After all, that’s more or less what Kovacevic became in New Jersey at 27, isn’t it?

I’m still on the same page regarding Guhle’s contract (6 years/$33M). As good a warrior as he may be, $5.5M per year is not a bargain for a 3rd or 4th defenseman.

It’s simply a good contract… if he stays healthy.

Saying that David Ettedgui, in daring to compare him to Jake Sanderson (!), believed he would never sign for less than $8.05M…

Slaf still has nothing to envy from Rantanen… and many others

I had written a few articles last year demonstrating, with statistics, that at the same age, Slafkovsky had nothing to envy from the best power forwards of his generation.

This included, among others, the Tkachuk brothers, Timo Meier, Valeri Nichushkin, Leon Draisaitl, Andrei Svechnikov, and… Mikko Rantanen, a player who has been talked about a lot lately.

The good Mikko, after refusing an 8-year/$96M contract from the Avalanche, was cavalierly traded to the Hurricanes in exchange for Martin Necas, Jack Drury, and 2nd and 4th round picks.

He has since been traded a second time to the Stars, with whom he finally had to accept a contract of… 8 years/$96M…

Beyond the millions, it’s now Rantanen’s very ordinary production, far from MacKinnon and Makar, that’s starting to get people talking.

After two almost identical seasons of 105 and 104 points, Rantanen was on track to have a third one before the trade to Carolina, but since then, it’s only 13 points in 22 games.

Bien sûr, il est normal qu’un joueur peine à trouver ses repères après autant de chamboulements en si peu de temps, mais quand même.

On peut de plus en plus constater que ce n’est clairement pas Rantanen qui conduisait la locomotive au Colorado et que les dirigeants de l’Avalanche auraient été fous de consentir plus de 12 millions à leur « troisième meilleur joueur », au demeurant un excellent « wagon de luxe ».

En jouant sur la première unité de l’avantage numérique avec les deux prodiges en plus d’évoluer sur le premier trio en compagnie de MacKinnon, même Jonathan Drouin (2,5M$/ 1 an) produit à un rythme frôlant le point par match!

Drouin était au mieux un joueur de 50 points à Montréal…

Quant à Necas (6,5 M$ / 2 ans), tout va plutôt bien pour lui au Colorado, même en jouant maintenant au sein du deuxième trio avec Brock Nelson et Lehkonen. Son style de jeu ultra-rapide se marie à merveille avec le tempo élevé de l’Avalanche et il continue d’évoluer lui aussi sur le PP1. Résultat : 22 points en 23 matchs depuis la transaction.

Pour le plaisir, imaginons combien de points pourrait faire Slafkovsky en jouant avec MacKinnon et Makar l’an prochain à 21 ans… Rantanen en avait fait 84…

Bref, avec une production supérieure à Rantanen entre 18 et 20 ans et un contrat de 8 ans /60,8 M$ en poche, on peut penser que Kent Hughes en aura pour son argent avec le gros Slovaque, pour qui la priorité était de jouer à Montréal dans une culture gagnante, quitte à laisser des dollars sur la table.

Tout ça dans un style plus agressif et puissant qui lui permettra de devenir peu à peu un des meilleurs joueurs devant de filet de toute la LNH. Tout ça avec une meilleure attitude et une meilleure forme physique que le Finlandais greedy qui croyait valoir 14 M$…

Alors qu’on devrait assister au grand débrouillage Super Écran de Slaf à sa quatrième saison dans la LNH, il sera très intéressant de comparer sa production à celle de Rantanen en 2025-2026.

Y aura-t-il un grand écart entre les deux, malgré la différence d’âge?

Pas si sûr…

Rantanen pourra-t-il devenir la locomotive que l’on espère à Dallas avec le contrat qu’on lui a consenti?

Vraiment pas si sûr…

Dvorak hasn’t said his last word!

I was one of those who believed that Marc Bergevin had more or less filled the gap left by Jesperi Kotkaniemi, if not, in part, that of Philip Danault, in the summer of 2021 when he acquired Christian Dvorak in exchange for a 1st round pick in 2022 and another 2nd round pick in 2024.

At 25, Dvorak had already had four seasons of 30 points or more and seemed capable of producing between 15 and 20 goals on an annual basis, while being an honest player over 200 feet.

And even if he had achieved these exploits alongside Mitch Marner and Matthew Tkachuk, his junior statistics – 50-goal seasons and over 100 points – made one think that better offensive production was still possible in his case.

On connaît cependant la suite. Le Canadien a pris la débarque du siècle à l’automne 2021 suite aux retraites forcées de Weber et Price. Puis, ce fut la reconstruction avec un grand R et les petits bobos qui se sont accumulés au fils des ans pour Dvo.

L’Américain aura donc à peu près remplacé KK qui n’est pas devenu grand-chose en Caroline.

Pour Danault, on oublie ça!

But here’s Dvorak, healthy, in an ideal role for him at the center of two veterans, Gallagher and Anderson, with whom he’s given nice missions in a simple and effective style of play.

Recently, he even seems to be flying on the ice, and we’re seeing a bit of his magical touch from his time with the London Knights, with 8 points in his last 7 games. His 16 points in his last 27 games also resemble his best seasons in Arizona.

As Nicolas Cloutier from TVAsports.ca recently detailed, we appreciate his game in powerplay and especially his effectiveness in the faceoff circle as a left-handed center, a rare commodity in the organization.

Bref, il reste encore une dizaine de matchs à la saison et je serais surpris que le CH lui offre une prolongation de contrat si le club rate les séries.

On parle aussi de tout mettre en œuvre cet été pour aller chercher un super joueur de centre top-6…

MAIS!

Si jamais le CH entre en séries et que Dvorak s’imposait en marquant quelques gros buts et/ou en jouant du hockey inspiré, du hockey apprécié par son coach, je verrais bien Hughes lui proposer de poursuivre l’aventure à Montréal pour un an ou deux à un prix très raisonnable.

Peut-être même plus raisonnable que les 3M$ que vient de consentir le Utah HC à Alex Kerfoot en vue de l’an prochain, comme le rapportait également Nicolas Cloutier,

Le temps que Beck, Kapanen, Hage se développent encore un peu, surtout qu’ils sont tous droitiers, un petit contrat de 1 an ou deux à Dvorak permettrait à tout le monde de souffler un peu…

Avec l’Américain qui est devenu le 12e attaquant de l’équipe avec au moins 10 buts, la recette de miser sur la profondeur sur les quatre trios semble assez bien fonctionner depuis décembre.

Bien sûr, Dvorak n’est pas un ingrédient irremplaçable. En plus du trio de jeunes droitiers, le robuste gaucher Florian Xhekaj montre des lignes encourageants. Puis Hughes et Gorton ont laissé connaître leurs intentions de dénicher « de l’aide » sur le marché.

Mais, avec la hausse du plafond, Dvo pourra peut-être encore faire partie de la recette à court terme, avec ou sans nouveau centre gaucher dans l’alignement.

À suivre…

A good ranking by Simon Boisvert!

When projecting into a career perspective, here’s the order of importance in the team’s successes in which Simon “Snake” Boisvert sees and ranks the Habs players 25 years old or less.

10. Newhook
9. Guhle
8. Fowler
7. Hage
6. Caufield
5. Reinbacher
4. Slafkovsky
3. Suzuki
2. Hutson
1. Demidov

Pas grand-chose à redire sur ce classement paru dans le plus récent épisode de Processus!

Peut-être Slafkovsky deviendra-t-il plus important que Suzuki s’il atteint son plein potentiel? Peut-être.

On peut aussi penser que si Newhook devient un ailier ou un centre de 3e trio, un défenseur comme Adam Engstrom – 27 points en 60 parties, différentiel + 15 avec Laval – pourraient le dépasser… Mais c’est loin d’être une certitude. 

Quand à Reinbacher devant Caufield, c’est un peu le pari inverse. But if the Habs aspire to become a powerhouse, it would be a good idea for Reinbacher to become a more important player in the team’s successes than Caufield… If the knee holds up and he becomes the top-pair defenseman – ideal playing partner for Hutson – that we’ve anticipated since his draft, that will be the case.

Bonne job Simon!

Au plaisir de poursuivre la discussion dans le plus grand respect des opinions comme Donald Trump tente chaque jour de nous en donner l’exemple.

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