The Fall and Fall of the Maple Leafs – Can Their Returning Players Steady the Ship?

The Maple Leafs fell to a disappointing 5-2 defeat against their rivals, the Montreal Canadiens, on Saturday, with the side having now lost seven of their previous eight matches.

This left Craig Berube’s team at the bottom of the eight-team Atlantic Division, having won just nine of their 22 matches (40.9%) so far in 2025/26. They also have the worst defence in the division, conceding 82 goals at a rate of 3.72 per game.

With several key players set to return from injury, however, Toronto will have a chance to rebound in the coming weeks. But will they achieve this objective, or do the sides’ problems run significantly deeper than their list of absentees?

The Maple Leafs’ Decline – What do the Statistics Say?

At the beginning of the 2025/26 campaign, the leading sports betting brands in Canada priced Toronto among the favourites for the Stanley Cup.

They’re now rank outsiders to achieve this lofty goal, as the team is barely in contention for a playoff wild card after their recent slump.

What made their most recent defeat worse was that the Canadiens had also been trapped in a horrendous run of form, losing five consecutive matches before the visit of their rivals. The Maple Leafs also started the game well at the Bell Center, recording the first six goal attempts and controlling the play before the Canadiens struck with their first two opportunities to score.

This dismal loss extended Toronto’s road record to 1-6-0 this season, while they’ve gone 9-10-3 overall. So, although their home form offers a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel, they’ve compiled just 22 points in 21 games and look completely bereft of confidence.

Certainly, when the Canadiens put their foot on the gas in the second period, Toronto were unable to live with them. This is part of a pattern that has been evident during the early stages of the Maple Leafs’ season, and head coach Berube seems unable to correct this at the time of writing.

Addressing the Impact of Injuries – Can Returning Players Boost Toronto?

Of course, Toronto’s recent form has been underpinned by a slew of injuries. These absentees have compounded the loss of their talismanic right wing Mitch Marner, who was traded to the Vegas GoldenKnights at the end of his contract in the summer.

The good news is that three of their absent players could be poised to return against the Columbus Blue Jackets, with Matthew Knies, Nicolas Roy and influential captain Auston Matthews having each skated in training earlier in the week. Matthews has missed Toronto’s last five matches with a lower-body injury, while Knies (lower body) and Roy (upper body) have been absent for three.

Similarly, key defenseman Jake McCabe is expected to be fit to start against the Blue Jackets. He left the 5-2 defeat to the Canadiens early with an upper-body injury, but this knock isn’t expected to rule him out for any significant period of time.

So, the side should be in much better shape in the coming weeks, potentially helping it to climb the divisional standings and at least become wild card contenders.

Mindset vs Injuries – What’s Really Behind Toronto’s Slump?

While the return of key players will boost Toronto, they’ve been inconsistent and often chaotic for much of the campaign. This was best embodied by a 5-4 home defeat against a depleted Carolina Hurricanes team in early November, despite the Maple Leafs surging to an initial 4-2 lead.

Although Toronto showcased their offensive capabilities in this game (as they have done for most of the season), they struggled to restrict turnovers and remained incredibly vulnerable defensively. To this end, the Hurricanes outshot the Leafs 47-20, while Carolina also created significantly more chances (43 vs 21) overall.

Such trends have plagued the Leafs throughout the campaign, with the team unable to control games for extended periods of time or fully capitalize on any dominance that they do enjoy. As the side’s confidence continues to diminish on the back of a run of just one win in eight matches, Toronto are also continuing to lose duels and struggle against high-tempo opponents.

This hints at a wider mindset problem: the side lacks consistency and the belief that they can contend in difficult divisional matchups. This is a much larger problem for Berube and his side to solve in the coming weeks, notwithstanding the return of his injured players.