Dylan Larkin: The Red Wings have only themselves to blame

Last week, when discussing a potential trade involving Michael Hage, we wrote the following:

The hunt for the big fish undoubtedly centers on [Hage] as the headliner. If the return doesn't include a center of the caliber of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Sidney Crosby, Nico Hischier, Robert Thomas, or Quinton Byfield, Hughes and Gorton would probably be better off being patient.

Obviously, this list wasn't exhaustive, but by including Byfield, it gave a very good idea of the minimum caliber of players for which a trade involving Hage would make sense for the Canadiens.

Would I include Dylan Larkin, who turns 30 in July, in that category?

Absolutely. But he would be far from the optimal option.

In fact, I had already discussed a scenario involving Larkin at length last summer. We'll remember this epic “exchange” between Larkin and his boss Steve Yzerman during the team's post-season review:

During his exit interview media session, Dylan Larkin said it would have been nice for Detroit to be more active at the trade deadline “for a morale boost.”

Yesterday, Steve Yzerman said he expects Detroit's best players and leaders to provide that morale boost. pic.twitter.com/I6CV7gcueJ

— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) April 30, 2025

So let's move on to leadership…

But on the hockey side, Larkin is similar to Nico Hischier in many ways. And while we have to take into account that he's two years older, the fact that he's under contract for another five years at a manageable $8.7 million per year makes the idea even more reasonable.

But what would the Red Wings want? And would they be interested in trading with the Canadiens, a team in their division?

Let's just say that Steve Yzerman hasn't often done business with the Habs, but when he has, it's paid off for him.

In 2017, in Tampa Bay, he acquired Mikhail Sergachev and a conditional second-round pick in exchange for Jonathan Drouin!

So, he certainly wouldn't be opposed to the idea. But he'd really have to get something in return: we're talking about Hage, of course, but also a seasoned player like, for example, Kaiden Guhle and a first-round pick.

And on that note, we first need to determine the direction the Red Wings should take, now that Larkin has decided he's had enough.

And why has he had enough?

After pulling off a stroke of genius in 2014 with Dylan Larkin (15th)—but missing the mark in 2015 (Evgeny Svechnikov, 19th) and 2016 (Dennis Cholowski, 20th)— they selected in the top 10 seven years in a row (!) between 2017 and 2023.

However, the Wings' front office simply didn't draft the right player often enough during that crucial period.

That's where it really came down to.

The Making of a Fiasco

With the 9th pick in 2017, they drafted the big, tall Canadian center Michael Rasmussen. The four picks that followed were, in order: Owen Tippett, Gabriel Vilardi, Martin Necas, and a certain Nick Suzuki…

In 2018, with the 6th pick, they turned to Czech player Filip Zadina—a monumental flop who's been playing in Davos for the past two years—rather than drafting the local kid: Quinn Hughes, who was, of course, selected right after by the Canucks. At the very least, if they were determined to avoid selecting a “small defenseman” at all costs, Evan Bouchard (10th) and Noah Dobson (12th) wouldn't have been a bad choice…

We finally hit the mark in 2019 with the bold selection of Moritz Seider at No. 6, and followed that up in 2020 with Lucas Raymond at No. 4.

Here are at least two players around whom we can build.

But the results were far less impressive in the next three drafts.

2021, 6th overall: The big defenseman Simon Edvinsson, a safe pick—not bad at all, but not the best. William Eklund and Dylan Gunther were drafted 7th and 9th overall, not to mention Wyatt Johnston at 23rd overall…

2022, 8th pick: The fiery center Marco Kasper. Again, not the worst choice, but not better than Pavel Myntyukov (10th), Denton Mateychuk (12th), Frank Nazar (13th), and Jimmy Snuggerud (23rd). And no, I won't be talking about Lane Hutson (62nd)!

2023, 9th pick: another center, Nate Danielson. The jury hasn't yet reached a final verdict on Danielson, but the preliminary verdict is already clear: Zach Benson (13th) was the best player available.

So, without looking any further back than the 2021 draft, the Wings could very realistically have counted on a core group consisting of Dylan Larkin, Nick Suzuki, Quinn Hughes, Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond, and Wyatt Johnston.

Two high-quality 1A-1B centers.

Two top-tier 1A-1B defensemen.

And two excellent first-line wingers.

That's a superb foundation for a championship-caliber team!

When Dylan Larkin expresses his desire to leave Detroit today, he's likely doing so, among other reasons, because of all those opportunities his management missed in the draft…

Acquiring Alex Debrincat in 2023 for a song and signing Patrick Kane at a bargain price unfortunately wasn't enough to plug the holes…

The Canadiens: A Model for the Wings?

Meanwhile, between 2018 and 2024, the Canadiens, through the draft and trades, acquired Suzuki, Dobson, Caufield, Slafkovsky, Hutson, and Demidov—six players aged 26 and under who are now featured in every discussion of the top 5 picks in their respective drafts.

And we haven't even mentioned Dach (2019), Newhook (2019), Guhle (2020), Dobes (2020), and Bolduc (2021), who should all be considered among the top 15 of their respective draft classes, not to mention Hage and Zharovsky, still in the “pipeline,” who are also already anticipated by many experts as worthy of the top 15, or even the top 10…

In short, the Wings must—or should—rebuild once again.

Will they do so around Seider (25) and Raymond (24) before it's too late?

Very good question…

When Hughes and Gorton decided to keep Suzuki and Caufield in the summer of 2022, the latter were 23 and 21 years old, respectively… The question didn't really arise.

One thing is certain: they can't trade Larkin for another Larkin!

They'll mainly be targeting a good, established young center (someone like Matt Beniers in Seattle or Michael Misa in San Jose?), a prospect with Michael Hage's profile, or a top-5 pick.

Because let's not forget that the Wings don't have a first-round pick this year! They traded it away last winter to acquire Justin Faulk, 34, who will be a free agent in the summer of 2027!

In that regard, if the Rangers want to make a return to the playoffs as early as next year, their fifth-overall pick might be tempting for the Wings if they ever wanted to take a long shot on players like Wyatt Cullen or Viggo Björck. But let's not count on that too much…

In short, while the summer looks set to be hot and sunny in Montreal with all the trade possibilities that could help the team move forward, Steve Yzerman's summer in Detroit—if he keeps his job—looks set to be rather stormy, with a chance of clearing up by the end of the day…