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Statistical model: Samuel Montembeault is worth about $8 million a year

 Auteur: mjohnson
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Statistical model: Samuel Montembeault is worth about $8 million a year
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At this point, you all know that Dom Luszczyszyn, The Athletic’s numbers expert, likes to use his statistical model to assign a monetary value to player production.

He projects NHL players’ performances into the future and establishes what each guy, on paper, will be worth.

A few years ago, he caused quite a stir when he described Nick Suzuki’s contract as one of the worst in the league. It’s worth mentioning, however, that he was the first to say it was an anomaly in his model.

He strongly believed that it would turn around… and since then, we’ve seen that it has.

In a paper published this morning on the league’s 32 payrolls, Luszczyszyn mentioned that seeing Suzuki become a #1 NHL center made him a guy with excellent value.

In fact, as you can see from his model, Cole Caufield ($9.5 M) and Nick Suzuki ($9.4 M) should be making quite a bit more money than they are right now. They’re two players who give the Habs a run for their money, both of whom are paid less than $8M a year each.

The Habs have several players who are worth more than their contracts, but no player has as marked a (positive) difference as Samuel Montembeault in Luszczyszyn’s model.

In his eyes, Montembeault should be the Habs’ third-highest paid player at $7.9 million per year. That’s an increase of nearly $5 million from the $3.15 million he earns per season.

You read that right.

Of course, you have to take some and leave some with your model. This is the first time he’s ranked goalies, and he doesn’t go into detail about every guy in the NHL either.

What we do know is that the Habs’ #1 goaltender’s contract helps the Habs rank 16th among the most mass-efficient clubs – excluding entry-level contracts, of course.

But why is it so high? Surely because, for the past two years, Montembeault has ranked seventh in the NHL for saves above expectations with 35. That must help. But $7.9 million?

Let’s not forget that Dom Luszczyszyn is the first to say that you have to take some and leave some with his model, which projects the future of players. Remember the Nick Suzuki story…

And when you see that Sergei Bobrovsky is expected to earn $5.2 million and Stuart Skinner $8.2 million, you’d think we’d take it or leave it with this model, if it’s good enough for you.

That said, it’s good to see the work of the Habs’ Quebec goaltender being recognized.

Overtime

– Ouch.

– Cody Fajardo: caution. [98.5 FM]

– Ah well.

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