Updated Canadiens Atlantic Division Odds Following 6-1 Drubbing by Tampa Bay

Montreal’s December 9th clash with the Tampa Bay Lightning at Centre Bell was supposed to be a barometer test as to where the Habs currently find themselves within the cutthroat world of the Atlantic Division. Were they genuine contenders or pretenders once again? Well, any Canadiens fans hoping to see the former were in for a rude awakening.

The night quickly spiralled into a dominant Lightning performance. Tampa Bay, in full stride, raced into a 3-0 first period, as the Habs were exposed in alarming fashion. Throughout the second two stanzas, it was more of the same, as Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point took apart the Canadiens’ blue line time and again. When the horn sounded to confirm a 6-1 Lightning drubbing, Montreal was left with more questions than answers.

Anatomy of a Collapse

To call the opening 20 minutes catastrophic for the home side barely does it justice. Brayden Point, always a heartbeat away from transforming any shift into a highlight, brush-stroked an early goal past Jakub Dobes only two minutes in. The Lightning, desperate to end their own four-game losing skid, seized the initiative and shredded the Habs’ defensive cover like confetti. By the midpoint of the period, Pontus Holmberg’s breakaway made it two, and before Montrealians had re-settled in their seats, Kucherov unleashed his signature slapper for a 3-0 Tampa bulge.

Jakub Dobes—heroic at times this year, but human on this night—was mercifully replaced after stopping just 11 of 14. It hardly steadied the ship. Sam Montembeault, helming the crease in relief, was met with the same defensive indifference and surrendered three more. Tampa’s depth—Darren Raddysh, Charle-Edouard D’Astous, Kucherov—overwhelmed Montreal at every turn. As the experts duly underlined, this was less a hockey game, more a forensic study in puck mismanagement and opportunistic finishing.

Montreal’s lone solace—Oliver Kapanen’s power-play marker, with help from Nick Suzuki and Ivan Demidov—served only as a blip of resistance. Even the most optimistic observer couldn’t miss that it papered over deep, structural rifts. Perhaps most damning: Cole Caufield’s white-hot 11-game point streak found a hard stop, emblematic of a Canadiens attack that, on this occasion, flickered and was snuffed out.

The Atlantic Outlook

All season long, bookmakers have been unconvinced by Montreal’s start to the season. Even when they topped the Atlantic, websites offering hockey betting in Canada were hesitant to slash odds on a Habs division victory. Fast forward to now, back-to-back defeats culminating in this drubbing at the hands of Tampa Bay have instead seen oddsmakers lose faith in the Canadiens, as opposed to finding confidence.

Currently positioned 4th in the Standings, Nick Suzuki and Co. are now considered +1000 contenders, not quite considered an outsider, but certainly not a favourite. But to view the Canadiens’ campaign thus far is to watch a pendulum swing—a wild-card berth last spring, cautious odds in preseason, hope rekindled early, and now an all-too-familiar feeling of gravity taking hold. Through 29 games, Montreal’s 15-11-3 record lands them fourth—close enough to dream, close enough to fret.

🚨 THE CANADIENS ARE THE FIRST 🇨🇦 TEAM TO EXIT THE PLAYOFFS: pic.twitter.com/d2oppvkSRU

— Bodog (@BodogCA) May 1, 2025

The metrics mix optimism with alarm. Captain Nick Suzuki’s 33 points signal intent. Cole Caufield—his 16-goal haul interrupted but not diminished—and Ivan Demidov, whose 23 points as a rookie have injected verve and unpredictability, power a top unit capable of lighting up any defence in a flash. On a good night, they compete with the division’s best.

But defence and fate have rarely been so cruel. Montreal ranks a dismal 28th leaguewide in goals allowed—an Achilles heel visible in every odd-man rush and crease-scramble. Yet, their 12th rank in expected goals against showcases a defensive structure that’s sounder than surface stats suggest. The flaw? Execution—particularly between the pipes. Sam Montembeault’s .870 save percentage, fair or not, is a weight on this team’s back, magnifying every breakdown. It’s not a system failure; it’s a symptom of a young club still searching for that elusive blend of discipline and backbone.

If you want to live the Canadiens experience in microcosm, look no further than the week behind: a spine-tingling 2-1 shootout triumph over Toronto, fueled by clutch from Caufield and Texier; a gut-wrenching 4-3 collapse against St. Louis, the memories of strong goaltending performances growing fainter by the game; and then, the Lightning’s callous dissection. Here, hope and vulnerability dance nightly.

The Unyielding Giants

The Canadiens’ wild swings and now-lengthening odds have to be viewed against an Atlantic landscape more unpredictable, more unforgiving, than any in recent memory.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-145): Their resume is a monument to consistency, and Tuesday night in Montreal was another brick in the wall. Missing Vasilevskiy, losing Hedman, yet the Lightning don’t just survive—they thrive, with Kucherov (already at 36 points), Point, and Guentzel stuffing the scoresheet, and role players thriving in the system. Everyone continues to install Tampa as the favourite, not out of blind loyalty, but because they pulse with championship DNA.

Florida Panthers (+475): Adversity has been their handshake for months—Barkov and Tkachuk’s injuries would sink most, but Bobrovsky’s playoff mettle and Marchand’s scoring touch keep the Cats right in the picture. If these stars return by February, write them off at your peril; nobody relishes a playoff showdown with Florida, not after back-to-back division championships.

Toronto Maple Leafs (+850): Toronto fans know pain, but they also know this roster has staying power. Matthews’ early absence saw Nylander (32 points) and Tavares (30) step up, while Sheldon Keefe’s defensive tightening has disguised past soft spots. Is this finally the year the first-round curse shatters? The energy remains coiled, the moment of release perhaps not so distant.