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Maple Leafs facing a tougher path to the Stanley Cup?
Credit: luis-fallas/unsplash
As of late January, the Maple Leafs are still considered strong contenders for the Stanley Cup. Various sportsbooks place them among the favorites out of the East, with only the Oilers and Carolina above them in the pecking order.

On aggregate, traditional sportsbooks list the Maple Leafs’ odds at around +1100, currently tying them for the second or third shortest odds, depending on the bookmaker. This sentiment is echoed by crypto sports betting sites, which generally share the second spot with the Dallas Stars, Florida Panthers, and New Jersey Devils at 11.0.

Despite these favorable odds, the Maple Leafs have encountered challenges that could impede their path to the Stanley Cup. Recently, the team has faced a downturn, losing two consecutive games and five of their last eight. While this slump isn’t necessarily cause for alarm, it does highlight areas that require attention. Compounding these internal challenges is the Carolina Hurricanes’ acquisition of Mikko Rantanen. This proactive move strengthens a direct competitor and raises the stakes for the Maple Leafs.

Before acquiring Rantanen, the Hurricanes were already a formidable opponent, ranking sixth in the NHL by points percentage. Advanced metrics further underscore their prowess; they lead the league in puck possession and expected goal percentage, suggesting they were arguably the best team in hockey even before this trade. The addition of Rantanen, a top-tier player, significantly bolsters their lineup.

One pressing concern is the composition of the defense. The current deployment of players like Philippe Myers, Simon Benoit, and Conor Timmins constitutes half of the blue line, a configuration that may not withstand the rigors of playoff hockey. Ideally, a player like Oliver Ekman-Larsson would be the least utilized defenseman rather than a central figure. This situation highlights the need for the Maple Leafs to acquire a puck-moving defenseman, preferably a number-one caliber player, though such assets are scarce and challenging.

In contrast, the Maple Leafs have benefited from strong goaltending, ranking fourth in 5-on-5 and eighth overall. While solid goaltending is advantageous, a heavy reliance on it can be precarious, especially if other aspects of team performance are lacking. This reliance underscores the need for the Maple Leafs to address existing weaknesses to maintain their competitive edge.

Offensive depth is another area of concern. The team lacks scoring contributions from its bottom six forwards, who also struggle defensively, creating a dual liability. To mitigate this, acquiring one or two centers to bolster depth scoring and enhance defensive reliability is imperative. However, the Maple Leafs face constraints, including a tight salary cap and a limited pool of trade assets, necessitating creative strategies to strengthen the roster.

If these roster enhancements prove unattainable, the team’s success may hinge on star players like Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner elevating their performance during the playoffs, coupled with continued exceptional goaltending. While this scenario is plausible, it carries inherent risks, especially given past playoff disappointments. Therefore, proactive measures to address roster deficiencies are crucial to improve the Maple Leafs’ prospects of securing the Stanley Cup.

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