Baseball

Mariners vs Blue Jays: not as big a gap on the mound as you might think
Charles-Alexis Brisebois
Mariners vs Blue Jays: not as big a gap on the mound as you might think
Credit: Sportsnet

The Seattle Mariners of 2025 are known for their excellent starting pitchers. It's true that on paper, the Mariners' rotation is really, really excellent. No one's taking that away from them.

But what if the Blue Jays weren't so far behind the Mariners on the mound?

In reality, the Blue Jays (who have home-field advantage) don't necessarily have to be ashamed of what they have to offer on the mound for the championship series against the Mariners.

Why not? Several reasons.

1. Since August 1, series included, the Mariners have had starters who collectively have a 3.84 earned-run average. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, are at just 3.87. That's close – closer than you'd think.

If we look only at the starters expected to pitch in the series, we see that for the past two and a half months, it's been Toronto's advantage.

Because don't forget that the excellent Trey Yesavage has only four outings in the Majors, which affects the average very little over a two-and-a-half-month sample.

And Max Scherzer has been part of the statistics since August 1.

2. Bryan Woo is the best starting pitcher in this series. However, he can't pitch today, as he hasn't yet recovered from his injury.

How will he look if called upon? Doubts remain.

3. The Blue Jays can line up their rotation to their liking, but the Mariners need to get Bryce Miller pitching on short rest. Ideally, he would have had an extra day off, having pitched on Wednesday.

Note also that he did poorly against the Blue Jays in May: he gave up seven earned runs.

4. What about Monday? Which starting pitcher will be on the mound for the Mariners? The other three starters pitched in Friday's crazy 15-inning game… and Woo won't necessarily be in the game.

Once again, a short rest could be in play for a starter. #NotIdeal

5. The Mariners play in a pitcher's ballpark and the Blue Jays play in a hitter's ballpark. This doesn't change anything for the series games, since the teams will be playing in the same stadium.

But it does affect the average starter since August. And it could help Shane Bieber (if he pitches Game #3 in Seattle), Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Jeff Hoffman avoid giving away home runs.

6. Mariners pitchers are mostly right-handed, especially in the rotation. The Blue Jays have an offensive line-up that is much more optimal when a right-hander is pitching. That's going to hurt the Mariners, no matter how good their pitchers are.

In fact, their only left-hander often used in the bullpen (Gabe Speier) struggled against Detroit. That'll help get the Nathan Lukes and Addison Bargers of this world playing more often.

7. Since the start of the series, the Mariners' bullpen ranks eighth out of 12 for earned run average: 4.33. He's been used for 27 innings over five games, which is a lot… especially bearing in mind the fatigue of Friday's game.

Obviously, it's better than the Blue Jays' bullpen: everyone agrees on that. But Toronto certainly won't have a bullpen day during the championship series, and still has a few guys who can do well.

I'm not saying this will be a walk in the park for the Blue Jays – I'm really not. But the narrative that the Mariners have the advantage on the mound may not be 100% true.

I'm not ruling out the Seattle Gunners being dominant, of course. But let's just say they'll quickly realize that the Blue Jays' forward is nothing like the Tigers'.

PMLB
  • The Mariners line-up for the championship series.

  • Henry Blanco: only player in history to have played in Seattle, Toronto, Los Angeles and Milwaukee.

  • Two teams without huge budgets in the final four.

  • Who remembers this? It took place in April.

  • Who do you think will make it to the World Series?

This content was created with the help of AI.

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