The last 72 hours have been really eventful in Toronto. We saw John Chayka and Mats Sundin take over, we saw Chayka come under heavy criticism at a press conference… and tonight, we saw the team win the draft lottery.
Oh, and on top of all that, we also learned this morning that Auston Matthews doesn't know if he wants to come back next year. You know, when things are going well.
Matthews, to come back, wanted to see the club make substantial improvements. And even though Chayka claims he doesn't know who the club will draft because he just started the job (which is probably the most credible excuse in history to dodge the question), we suspect Gavin McKenna is on his way.
John Chayka says he can honestly claim not to know who the #leafs will draft at No. 1: “We haven't had scouting meetings yet. Second day on the job.”
— Chris Johnston (@reporterchris) May 5, 2026
The question now is whether McKenna (or another prospect, if the Leafs deviate from the consensus) will provide the immediate help Matthews is looking for. The two guys are a perfect fit in terms of playing styles… but McKenna is only an 18-year-old, after all.
And above all, McKenna isn't the one who's going to solve all the Maple Leafs' problems. And that's where I want to go with this tonight.
It's worth remembering that the Leafs could have lost their first-round pick tonight. If the team had been pushed out of the top five following the lottery (which was the most likely scenario), Toronto's first-round pick would have gone to Boston. In the end, that didn't happen.
But despite all that, Toronto will still have to give the Bruins a first-round pick someday. And we expect the NHL to confirm shortly that the Leafs' first-round picks in 2027 (which will go to Philadelphia) and 2028 (which will go to Boston) will not be protected in any way: they will go to the other team regardless of the pick's draft position.
McKenna is all well and good… but it still means the team has no first-round picks for the next two years.
Furthermore: It sounds like there's a good chance the NHL would rule in Philadelphia's favor if this scenario plays out.
Meaning, if Toronto retains its 2026 first-round pick after tonight's lottery, expect the 2027 first-round pick to go to the Flyers and the 2028 first-round pick to the Bruins… both unprotected. https://t.co/Iyq5Fq0CM5
— Chris Johnston (@reporterchris) May 5, 2026
Keep in mind that the Leafs finished last in the Atlantic this season—which is likely the best division in the entire league and where all teams will be competitive next year. Also keep in mind that Toronto has serious defensive weaknesses… and that Auston Matthews has only two years left on his contract.
Maybe McKenna will convince Matthews to stay one more year, and maybe he'll help the team (which won't be able to tank since it doesn't have its draft picks) start winning again. But that doesn't change the fact that there are serious red flags regarding the Maple Leafs' future… even with McKenna's eventual arrival.
Now we just have to see what Matthews thinks about it.
In a nutshell
– Could Ivar Stenberg be the Leafs' pick?
Bukala on HNIC: McKenna may give you 100 points, but he'll be an even player; Stenberg can give you 80 points and be a +25.
He loves the +/- stat.
— NHL Watcher (@NHL_Watcher) May 6, 2026
– Renaud Lavoie thanks everyone who sent him kind words. We wish him a speedy recovery.
All the messages received in the last few days have a much bigger impact than you think. We always wonder, is it worth texting or calling someone to comfort them? I just wish I could find the right words. But tell yourself…
— Renaud Lavoie (@RLavoieTVA) May 5, 2026
– Phillip Danault is ready for the second round.
Phil Danault on his IG:
“
2nd round
” pic.twitter.com/DSyGjKZs1g
— /r/Habs (@HabsOnReddit) May 6, 2026
– Big news with the Canucks.
Well, that's BIG news in Vancouver…
As we mentioned before, the belief was that Rutherford would be leaving the organization once they hired at least a GM. https://t.co/n0XTry5Riz
— David Pagnotta (@TheFourthPeriod) May 6, 2026
– The Wildcats eliminate the Armada.
The Wildcats eliminate the Armada in the decisive game and advance to the championship game!
pic.twitter.com/7kAJM6C0jk
— RDS (@RDSca) May 6, 2026
2nd round
”