A new contract for Kirby Dach… or not?

Tony Patoine
A new contract for Kirby Dach… or not?
Credit: NHL.com

Kirby Dach turned 25 last January.

He is set to become partially unrestricted this summer, then fully unrestricted at age 26 in the summer of 2027.

The Albertan stands 6'4” and tips the scales at 215 lbs.

He is currently playing in his first playoffs with the Canadiens, and let's just say that aside from a small (but very costly) mistake in Game 2, there's not much to fault him for—quite the opposite, in fact.

He directly contributed to two of his team's wins in Games #3 and #5.

His goal on Wednesday night was quite a sight. Not every NHL player is capable of pulling this off:

A Complex Case

Over four seasons marred by multiple injuries—he hasn't even played in 50% of the Habs' games since arriving in Montreal—Dach has racked up 77 points in 154 games, which works out to exactly 0.5 points per game.

For a guy who's often injured, that's obviously not a huge deal, but it's not that bad either. It's slightly better than the average NHL forward.

Despite his knee injuries, we also know that his optimal potential—when healthy and well-supported—is likely still around 0.6 points per game, as was the case during his first season in Montreal when he recorded 38 points in 58 games (0.66 PPG) at just 22 years old.

There aren't a ton of 25-year-old right-handed centers in the NHL who were former third overall picks, talented, and capable of performing in the playoffs.

So, whether we love him or not in our little hearts, Dach remains a rather rare specimen.

Of course, you'd have to be a bit naive or downright optimistic (RIP Jean-Marc Chaput!) to believe that Dach will never suffer another serious injury and that he could certainly become a full-time third-line center again in Montreal or in the NHL.

But here's the thing: like Juror #8 in Twelve Angry Men, Dach's agent, Gerry Johansson, can always play this card: “It's possible!”

To which Hughes and Gorton could respond just as classically, in the style of the banker character: “But highly unlikely!”

That could lead to some, let's say, “interesting” negotiations…

We don't yet know when and how the Habs' playoff run will end, and all of this will undoubtedly have some impact on Dach's future with the club.

But already, I think we can say that Dach is more of a player who can be part of the solution in the playoffs than an invisible, unremarkable player.

That's where Hughes and Gorton will need to show the most shrewdness.

If I were them, here's how I'd see things—or at least how I see them right now.

A calculated and reasonable contract or a trade?

Dach will be eligible to receive a $4 million qualifying offer this summer, which would lead to full free agency the following summer.

If Dach were 29, I'd go with that offer, telling myself, “We'll wait for Hage,” and then probably “trade him away” afterward…

But here's the thing: at 25, Dach is still in the same age group as a good portion of the team's core: Suzuki, Caufield, Dobson, Guhle, Dobes—and I'm not even mentioning Xhekaj, Struble, and Kapanen!

At 25, he might stay healthy and have the season of his career, hoping to cash in big in the summer of 2027 by demanding over $5 million a year.

It's possible that Dach prefers this option.

Theoretically, Dach is in the prime of his career. He could choose to bet on himself by opting for a one-year contract.

But others might also ask, “Why not trade him while his value is on the rise following a strong playoff run?”

Short answer: because it probably wouldn't make any sense!

Unless he has a playoff run worthy of a Conn Smythe winner—given his injury history—it's hard to see how the Habs could get their money's worth on the market, considering his potential and his value to the team in Montreal.

The Albertan can still be part of the medium- and long-term plan and be part of the core group of 24- to 27-year-old players who will compete for the Cup in the coming years.

Dach on the bottom six is some seriously impressive depth!

And to really drive home his value, take note of this: the Habs currently have only one other forward over 6'1” and 200 lbs with a contract extending beyond the 2026–2027 season: Juraj Slafkovsky.

Do we really need to remind you again how important it is to have enough big, strong forwards to survive in the playoffs?

I don't think so.

So, it's pretty simple: I'd bet on Dach again, asking myself, what are the odds he'll get injured as much as he did during his last contract? 

Pretty slim, right?

And even if that were the case, as long as he delivers strong playoff performances, what's the risk? The Habs have already proven—twice over—that they don't really need him on a regular basis during the regular season to make the playoffs anyway!

So, if I had to make a call right now, I'd take that bet on Dach with a 3- to 4-year contract—maybe 5—at a salary just slightly higher than the $3,362,500 he's earned over the past four years.

A salary befitting a solid third-line center, capable of filling in on the top six when needed and playing on the second power-play unit.

And $3.5–4 million would be almost pocket change compared to the future salary cap…

Unless he tears everything apart on his way through a long playoff run, I don't see how such a role and such a contract could offend Dach and his agent. Reminder: Dach hasn't played in 50% of the games over the past four seasons…

He'd thus have the chance to stay in town with teammates who appreciate him and be part of a Stanley Cup contender in a role tailor-made for him, while securing over $10, $12, or $15 million in the process.

For an often-injured player who owes the organization a debt of gratitude, that would be hard to turn down.

Options for his bosses…

Good NHL management is management that—as much as possible—makes sure it always has a few options up its sleeve.

Extending the deal with Dach at a reasonable salary would solidify his market value and also give Hughes and Gorton plenty of flexibility:

– They could gradually integrate the young players Hage and Zharovsky, or even Paupanekis and Mooney, and they could also more easily consider trading them (just like Kapanen) for bigger fish…

– Even though Dach is right-handed, they would ensure they maintain good depth at center given Danault's possible departure at the end of the 2026–2027 season.

– Signing another good forward to a medium- to long-term deal and further solidifying the core would help make the team even more attractive to other top players in the future.

In short, who would be against such a reasonable contract?

Are the arguments against stronger than the arguments for?

The rest of the playoffs, especially if they go deep, will no doubt help us see things even more clearly…


extension

The text you just read was written before yesterday's game.

Dach didn't lead his team to victory. But, like all his teammates, he put up a good fight against the Lightning and will have another chance to be the hero tomorrow night…

That said, he is currently the team's fourth-most-used center, never playing more than 13 minutes per game.

As expected since his acquisition in December, it is Philip Danault who has become the Canadiens' true second-line center in the playoffs, having played over 19 minutes in the last two games, while averaging 16:55 of ice time over six games—one minute more than Jake Evans at 15:54.

Dach is therefore currently the team's fourth-most-used center in terms of ice time… This could help Hughes and Gorton in their negotiations… or make them reconsider the very idea of keeping him.

Just for fun, who would you choose between Dach and Kapanen?

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