Bookmakers aren’t giving the Canadiens their due

Charles-Alexis Brisebois
Bookmakers aren’t giving the Canadiens their due
Credit: Mark LoMoglio/NHLI via Getty Images

The Canadiens won the first game of their first-round series. They will therefore do no worse than they did in 2025, when they lost in five games.

Jon Cooper, speaking rationally, summed up his team's situation well: the Lightning must now win four of their next six games if they hope to advance to the next round.

That's no small task.

Historically, an NHL team that wins Game 1 has a 68% chance of advancing to the next round. If the team wins that game on the road, the odds drop to 57%. It would have been 75% for a team with home-ice advantage.

And historically, the Canadiens have a 64-11 record in the playoffs when they win Game 1.

At this point, we can see that, looking back, the Habs have given themselves a chance to advance to the next round. But what happened way back in 1900 has little bearing on the rest of the series, which is taking place in 2026.

And at this point, the bookmakers still have their doubts about the Canadiens.

According to the Polymarket website, the Canadiens currently have a 49% chance of winning their first-round series. That's better than the 33% chance they had before yesterday's game…

But that means that as of noon today, the Habs are still not the favorites.

Obviously, it's not Martin St-Louis's job to worry about that. He'll just have to remind his guys that they were able to beat Tampa Bay yesterday and that it's possible to do it again.

But I imagine, all the same, that if some Canadiens players see this, it might give them a little extra motivation.


In a nutshell

– I'm not surprised.

– He skated before the others.

– What will happen with him?

– Note to self.

– Wow.

– It would make sense for Evgeni Malkin to come back.

facebook icon Share twitter icon Tweet linkedin icon Share
Copied!