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Last night, the Montreal Canadiens lost to the Blue Jackets. They played poorly, Noah Dobson got injured, and Ivan Demidov took a hard hit at one point…
In short, it wasn't a great night at the office, on the heels of the last home game of the regular season.
And since the Lightning won their game, we can all agree that Martin St-Louis's team shot themselves in the foot when it comes to their chances of winning the Atlantic Division.
Right now, the Sabres are two points ahead of the Lightning and the Canadiens. There are two games left for all three teams, who are guaranteed to finish in the top three of the division.
Since the Sabres have 41 regular-season wins (which serves as the tiebreaker if needed) and the Lightning have 40, Buffalo's chances of winning the division look good.
According to the Playoffs Status website, Buffalo has a 67% chance of winning the division.
Currently, the Lightning has a 31% chance of finishing at the top of the division. Nothing is lost for the Florida club, but it won't be an easy challenge.
Naturally, this means the Canadiens currently have about a 2% chance of winning their division. Since they have 33 regular-season wins, they must have more points than both the Sabres and the Lightning to finish in first place.
That's why, mathematically, the Habs have a 20% chance of finishing second and a 79% chance of finishing third—and starting the playoffs on the road.
Currently, the Canadiens have a 67% chance of facing the Lightning in the first round. They also have a 31% chance of facing the Sabres and about a 2% chance of facing the top wild-card team.
Tampa Bay, Buffalo, Ottawa, and Boston are the only four possibilities at this time.
Tomorrow, the Sabres will be in Chicago before finishing their season at home on Wednesday against the Stars. As for the Lightning, they will play their last two games at home: tomorrow against the Red Wings and Wednesday against the Rangers.
The Habs, as you probably know, will play tonight on Long Island and Tuesday in Philadelphia.
overtime
Yesterday's games confirmed a lot of things in the East. And right now, even though there's still some uncertainty, there are still quite a few things we know.
For example?
- The Hurricanes and Penguins can't be moved from their spots: they'll finish first and second in their division.
- The Flyers are the favorites to secure the eighth available spot in the East. The Blue Jackets, the Capitals, and the Islanders can still hope to qualify, but time is running out.
- The Sabres, Lightning, and Canadiens will want to win the division to let the other two teams face off against each other.
- The Senators and Bruins are guaranteed a playoff spot—which eliminates the Red Wings from the race. It remains to be seen who will finish ahead of the other in the standings and who will have to go through the “Atlantic” side of the playoff bracket.
So for the Canadiens, in addition to keeping an eye on the Sabres and the Lightning, they'll inevitably be watching Boston (the Blue Jackets and the Devils are still on the schedule) and Ottawa (who have the Devils and the Maple Leafs on the schedule) over the next few days.
But if the Habs lose in regulation tonight, they can no longer win their division. It won't be an easy matchup, since the Islanders are fighting for their survival, obviously.
