Canadiens vs. Lightning in the first round: a 70% chance of it happening

Maxime Truman
Canadiens vs. Lightning in the first round: a 70% chance of it happening
Credit: X / capture d'écran

What a night of hockey at the Bell Centre!

Cole Caufield's 50th goal… Juraj Slafkovsky's 30th goal… Jakub Dobes' superb performance… Nick Suzuki's two assists, bringing his total to 98 points… excitement and reasons to celebrate: there were plenty of them yesterday at the Temple.

Unfortunately, Michael Hage didn't have as many reasons to smile last night.

The Canadiens outshot the opposition 21-19. Recently, Montreal had been outshot by the Lightning and the Hurricanes (twice); it feels good.

However, what stands out most to me from last night's game is Adam Engstrom's brilliance and the intense, physical nature of the match. The referees handed out a total of 126 penalty minutes, most of them in the second period.

(Credit: NHL.com)
(Credit: NHL.com)

I don't think I'm wrong in saying this morning that there could be no better scenario than a first-round matchup between the Lightning and the Habs.

Josh Anderson and Declan Carlile…

Corey Perry vs. Lane Hutson…

Nikita Kucherov and his big mouth vs. our captain Nick Suzuki…

Cole Caufield

Charles-Édouard D'Astous…

Arber Xhekaj…

Jayden Struble…

Jon Cooper and his arrogance…

The Habs are guaranteed to finish in one of the top three spots in the Atlantic Division. Anything is still possible on April 10, 2026!

(Credit: NHL.com)

However, according to the mathematical models on PlayoffStatus.com, the Habs are projected to finish second or third… same goes for the Lightning.

In short, barring a statistical surprise, we're definitely in for a Lightning vs. Canadiens matchup in the first round. There's a 71% chance of that happening, while a showdown against the Sabres or the Bruins remains possible, though unlikely. Note that facing the Red Wings, the Islanders, the Capitals, or the Flyers are infinitely less likely scenarios.

Basically, we're heading (starting next week) toward the matchup I'm quietly dreaming of this morning. Will the Habs get their revenge following their loss in the 2021 Stanley Cup Final?

Will Bell Centre fans make Nikita Kucherov pay for the comments he made about them five years ago?

On the hockey side, one wonders if (the highly emotional) Jakub Dobes will be able to stay on track once the playoffs begin…

Whether Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, Lane Hutson, Noah Dobson, and Ivan Demidov will be just as effective once playoff hockey begins…

Will Brendan Gallagher, Patrik Laine, and Zachary Bolduc be the three forwards left out…

Whether Joe Veleno and Alexandre Texier will have the coach's trust…

Whether Stéphane Robidas and Martin St-Louis will actually dare to bench Arber Xhekaj or Jayden Struble to make room for Alexandre Carrier (because I assume replacing Adam Engstrom with Kaiden Guhle won't be a problem)…

Could we really do without Struble and Xhekaj in a potentially tough, physical series against the Lightning?

Since the Habs are relatively healthy, Martin St-Louis will have some big decisions to make; this year, for the first time since he's been at the helm of the Habs, he might face the pressure of being the playoff favorite. Because yes, I see the Canadiens eliminating the Lightning in the first round…

Even though this year's Tricolore is the youngest team to ever qualify for the playoffs. With an average age of 25.86, the 2025-26 Habs break the record set… by the 2024-25 Habs last year (25.91).

The future looks bright in Montreal… and the present is starting to look bright too. Go Habs Go!

Before we get a taste of these long-awaited playoffs, we'll be treated to three regular-season games during which Nick Suzuki will try to notch his 99th and 100th points of the season. Let's go!


Overtime

On a slightly less festive and joyful note, CF Montréal will open its home season tomorrow afternoon at Stade Saputo. I spoke with Nilton Jorge about it after attending the first four practices of the week. Enjoy the listen!

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