The three teams most likely to face the Canadiens in the first round

Charles-Alexis Brisebois
The three teams most likely to face the Canadiens in the first round
Credit: Josh Lavallee/NHLI via Getty Images

Barring a massive upset, the Lightning, the Sabres, or the Canadiens will finish at the top of the Atlantic Division.

There's still a chance (mathematically speaking) that the Bruins could finish at the top of the division… but let's just say it's not exactly likely. The stars would have to align like crazy.

There's also a chance (according to PlayoffsStatus) that the Senators could sneak into the top 3 of the division (though not at the top), even if that remains a highly unlikely scenario.

(Credit: Sportsnet)

In other words, what I'm trying to say is that the chances of Tampa Bay, Buffalo, and Montreal being the top three teams (in any order) in the division after 82 games are very, very high.

Since the Canadiens have only a 7% chance, as of this morning, of winning the division, it makes sense to conclude that the Habs are highly likely to face the Sabres or the Lightning in the first round of the playoffs.

In fact, right now, the Canadiens have a 78% chance of facing the Sabres in the first round and a 13% chance of facing the Lightning in the coming weeks.

That's more than a nine-in-ten chance of facing one of those teams. No one's surprised, right?

But it's interesting to ask: which other teams still have a mathematical chance of facing the Canadiens in the first round?

And the most likely answer, aside from Buffalo and Tampa Bay, is Boston, with a 6% chance.

(Credit: Playoffs Status)

The Canadiens could face Boston if both teams finish in the top 3 of their division (in second and third place, to be precise) or, in certain scenarios, if the Habs win their division.

The Sens (2%) and the Hurricanes (1%) are also among the top five teams that could face the Habs in the first round.

It's also worth noting that the Habs could mathematically face the Penguins, Red Wings, Islanders, Capitals, Flyers, Blue Jackets, and Devils.

But right now, anything other than Buffalo, Tampa Bay, and (at a stretch) Boston is relatively unlikely.

Note that as of now, the team has a 63% chance of starting the playoffs on the road and a 37% chance of starting at home.

That makes sense: they have a 7% chance of winning their division and a 30% chance of finishing in second place.

(Credit: Playoffs Status)

Remember that the Canadiens will face the Panthers, Lightning, Blue Jackets, Islanders, and Flyers in the coming days. That could change things by the end of the regular season.

The game that could change everything is Thursday's matchup against Tampa Bay. The Florida club is two points ahead of the Habs in the standings… and has a game in hand.


In a nutshell

– Ouch.

– Note to self.

– What do you think?

– That would be something.

– A name to keep in mind in Nashville.

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