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Recently, 18 arbitration-eligible players failed to reach agreement with their clubs for the 2026 season. Of the lot, Tarik Skubal is—by far—the most spectacular case.
And why? Because the arguments on both sides add up.
The Tigers are offering their pitcher $19 million, while Skubal is asking for $32 million. The $13 million difference is a baseball record, and an arbitrator will have to determine whether the player will earn $19 million or $32 million in 2026. He can't split the difference.
Basically, if the arbitrator deems that the pitcher is worth more than $25.5 million (the average of the player's and club's demands), he will rule in favor of Scott Boras and the Tigers' pitcher. However, if he deems him to be worth less than $25.5 million, the Michigan team will win.
At present, it's clear that the issue is divisive.
On the one hand, there are people like Jim Bowden who believe that the player will win his case and that Scott Boras will achieve his goal: to raise salaries for arbitration-eligible pitchers.
I don't understand how the #Tigers could submit an arbitration salary of just $19 million for Tarik Skubal after two consecutive Cy Young Awards and the reality that he can be compared as a 5+ player to free agent players. Skubal submitted a figure of $32 million…no need for Skubal to settle. He will win.
– Jim Bowden
(@JimBowdenGM) January 9, 2026
He wants to drive up salaries because right now, the precedents that have been set make it hard to see Skubal, as good as he is, getting that kind of money via arbitration.
The record for a pitcher is $19.75m and it belongs to David Price in 2015. However, he was a super-two player, which means he was on his fourth contract as an arbitration-eligible player instead of his third, like Skubal and the majority of MLB guys.
Yes, it's been 10 years and such an amount today equates to nearly $27 million… but Skubal earned $10.15 million last year. Will an arbitrator grant him an increase of nearly $22 million before he is entitled to autonomy?
Remember that the figure Boras is aiming for is more than $25.5 million, not $32 million… but still: it's a good point. Such an increase would be truly incredible.
The arbitration system in general isn't ideal. Skubal fully deserves to be paid what he's asking for, but the Tigers likely know he's not going to get a $20 million raise over one season. Also important context is David Price's $19.75 million arb record came in his fourth year as he was Super Two.
– Brandon Wile (@Brandon_N_Wile) January 9, 2026
Jacob deGrom, in the past, received a salary increase of just under $10M from one year to the next. That's the arbitration record – and Skubal is clearly looking to break it.
That's why everyone will be keeping an eye on the situation. More than ever, agents will be hoping Boras wins his bet – and clubs will be hoping the Tigers win, so as not to upset the pre-established order.
A Tigers-Tarik Skubal arbitration hearing would be fascinating theater.
Here's a closer look at the case for the Tigers, the case for Skubal, and what the CBA actually says:https://t.co/gjDTfjA8Ja
– Cody Stavenhagen (@CodyStavenhagen) January 9, 2026
It's also worth remembering that, in all this, it's becoming increasingly clear that Skubal's future lies elsewhere. A year from now, it won't be the Tigers or umpires who decide his salary: it'll be the Mets, Dodgers, and clubs like them.
The arbitration case doesn't help the Tigers, who seem resigned to losing the best pitcher in the world a year from now.
This content was created with the help of AI.
