The mid-season mark has already been passed in the NHL, and it's starting to become clear who's in the playoff race and who's not.
The Canadiens are carving an easier path to the playoffs than last year.
According to The Athletic'sDom Luszczyszyn, the Habs currently have a 68% chance of making the playoffs.
The NHL Playoff Report
Taking stock of where every team is at the halfway point, plus the biggest risers and fallers.
MIN, DET, EDM, SJS
NJD, WPG, ANA, DALhttps://t.co/9lCcmmFzpy pic.twitter.com/C13vSemI8j
– dom
(@domluszczyszyn) January 8, 2026
That puts Montreal fourth in the East and second in the Atlantic Division.
The only team ahead of the Habs in these stats is Tampa Bay with a 100% chance of making the playoffs. 100% is pushing it when you're not already mathematically qualified, but we agree that it would be surprising to see the Lightning miss the playoffs.
These probabilities take into account not only the current number of points in the standings, but also the difficulty of the upcoming games and the strength of the division.
Unfortunately, the Canadiens are part of a division where several teams have a chance of making the playoffs, which explains why Washington is in third place in the East, according to the probabilities.
The odds of Montreal making the playoffs have jumped 14.8% since the beginning of December 2.
It helps that the Habs collected 25 points out of a possible 36 in games from December 3 to January 7.
What Canadiens fans won't like is that the odds of Montreal winning the Stanley Cup this year are just 0.5%.
We know that the Habs aren't supposed to win a Stanley Cup this year, but 0.5% is a bit low considering that the Jets still have a 1.1% chance of winning it, according to these statistics.
Overtime
– More Nazem Kadri rumors.
INSIDER TRADING…
– Kadri happy in Calgary but would consider change
– Coleman a potential trade fit for Habs
– Devils trying to shake things up
– Canada's Olympic reserve list at around 15
– What really happened with Binnington non-pullWATCH: https://t.co/At6MSnoAn4 pic.twitter.com/xyee3YGPn2
– TSN Hockey (@TSNHockey) January 8, 2026
– Matias Coccaro has found a new team.
Matías Coccaro's new club. #CFMTL https://t.co/35W0ND9I5O
– Nilton Jorge (@NiltonJorge) January 9, 2026
– 400 NHL games for Yegor Sharangovich.
You're going to need a bigger boat
pic.twitter.com/guw4AuH6HU
– Calgary Flames (@NHLFlames) January 9, 2026

MIN, DET, EDM, SJS
NJD, WPG, ANA,