Hockey

Would Nazem Kadri be more useful to the Habs than Kaiden Guhle?
Tony Patoine
Would Nazem Kadri be more useful to the Habs than Kaiden Guhle?
Credit: Screenshot / X

Kaiden Guhle is pretty much the equivalent of the proverbial apple pie.

Everybody loves apple pie.

Everyone loves Kaiden Guhle.

In some cases, it's unconditional love. Before the season started, a few voices on sports radio were still referring to him as the “key defender”, the “most important” defender and the “soul” of the Montreal defensive brigade.

So much for the “soul” part.

But as for the rest, it's time to revise our assessments, gentlemen!

In fact, can we start acknowledging, in all lucidity, that his recurring injuries are beginning to constitute a problem?

A problem?

Well, yes and no, because the Canadiens continue to win in his absence.

A player less “important” than you might think

There are two reasons for this.

The first is that, although he doesn't play on the power play, Jayden Struble is a very adequate replacement. By protecting his face-offs a little more(match-ups, fewer defensive zone starts), the difference between him and Guhle often seems marginal at five-on-five… The eye can see it, and some advanced statistics also confirm that, properly used, Struble is a positive factor on the ice.

(Screenshot: Puckpedia.com)

Secondly, and most significantly, Guhle's importance in the organization chart has greatly diminished in recent years and deserves to be reviewed.

We could go on and on about all the players who will be more important to the Habs' success in the years to come than Kaiden Guhle.

Let's just list them without even adding the name of David Reinbacher, who could be his eventual replacement alongside Lane Hutson:

1. Ivan Demidov
2. Lane Hutson
3. Nick Suzuki
4. Cole Caufield
5. Noah Dobson
6. Juraj Slafkovsky
7. Mike Matheson
8. Dobes/Montembeault

As you can see, Guhle, the team's #4 defenseman, would be about the Habs' 9th most important player when healthy..

But the really good teams are always able to win without their 9th best player or their #4 defenseman..

And that's exactly what the Habs do when Guhle is absent.

2024-2025

Last season, Guhle was absent for two months following the January 28 game.

During this period, his club collected 22 points in 20 games, good for a projected 90.2 pts over 82 games.

But how many points did the Habs record over 82 games?

91 pts!

Without taking anything away from #21, that's clearly a negligible impact on his team's results.

Maybe it's the atheist in me, but there will always be a limit to how many games an “aura”, a “soul” or a “presence” can win you..

What about 2025-2026?

Of course, it's too early after his nine-game absence to draw any big conclusions about the impact of his absence on the current season.

But let's just say that with Guhle in the line-up, the club had 4 wins and just one defeat (0.800) and that in the nine games it played without him, it accumulated 12 points out of a possible 18 (0.666).

Logically, maintaining an average of 0.800 is virtually impossible (131 pts).

However, over 82 games, if the Habs play for 0.666 – a much more realistic target – they'll have a 109-point season. I don't think he'd do much more with Guhle in the line-up.

In any case, 109 points would have been enough to finish one point ahead of Toronto at the top of the Atlantic last season…

What to do with Guhle?

If his injury heals normally – he's already back on skates – and we take it for granted that the Albertan will miss five weeks of play, he could return on November 20 against the Washington Capitals, a 14-game absence.

That would give him a campaign of 67 games played.

If he doesn't re-injure himself this season, Guhle would have averaged 59 games per year since joining the Canadiens in 2022-2023.

So it's hard to talk about his 6-year, $5.5 million contract as a bargain – a mantra we hear regularly – when instead of pocketing $67,073 per game played, it costs $93,220!

93,220 per game is what a $7,644,000 player is worth!

Don't get me wrong, at $5.5 million per season, Guhle would represent a bargain by playing 82 games.

But will he be able to play 82 games – or close to it – even once in the five years remaining on his contract?

Will he be able to play healthy when it counts most in the playoffs?

In any case, I'd be very hesitant to bet $5.5M on it… And if I were in the shoes of Hughes and Gorton, that's the kind of question I'd seriously ask myself.

With Hutson's contract extension set to take effect next year ($8.85 million), Matheson's soon-to-be-signed new deal at nearly $7 million per season, and Demidov's next deal set to take effect in 2027 ($11 million?), these three will soon be eating up another $20 million on the payroll…

Will the Canadiens be able to afford a4th defenseman at $5.5 million?

Probably not.

But perhaps they'll also want to spend that money elsewhere.

Especially when Struble, his replacement with similar qualities, costs four times less for a perfectly honest job, not to mention the possible arrival of the right-handed Reinbacher, perhaps the most natural complement to Hutson imaginable…

A bargaining chip for Kadri?

If Hughes and Gorton put 23-year-old Guhle in the shop window, he's likely to be of interest to many clubs.

The mediocre Flames in Alberta, Kaiden's home province, come to mind, who might take him in return for a certain Nazem Kadri.

Aside from giant Kevin Bahl, to whom they've just agreed to pay $5.35 million for the next six seasons, the Flames have absolutely nothing on the left side of defence, and Guhle would also assume a great deal of leadership during their rebuild…

That would be sound management on the part of both clubs, both hockey-wise and salary-wise.

Note that, as part of a package, the Flames might prefer young forwards. Kirby Dach, another Albertan, or Alex Newhook, or even Kapanen, would be logical targets..

But Montreal might prefer to keep these young, inexpensive forwards who may not yet be at their peak, in order to maintain as much forward depth as possible.

Just imagine:

Caufield-Suzuki-Slaf
Bolduc-Kadri-Demidov
Newhook-Kapanen-Dach
Anderson-Evans-Gally

Talent, speed and sandpaper in every trio.

A serious Stanley Cup contender this season…

Why Kadri?

In a world where Dan Muse is working miracles with his gang of 30-somethings in Pittsburgh – led by Crosby and Malkin – there's little doubt in my mind that Nazem Kadri must be considered a serious contender for the second center spot in Montreal.

Kadri, the Flames' first pivot, 721 points in 1,000 games, $7 million a year, no missed games and an average of 66 points in his last three seasons in Calgary, would probably be one of the top five second centers in the league until the end of his contract at age 38. He's that kind of player.

A fine career, almost never injured, in great shape, always productive, Kadri is what you might call a “35-year-old”.

Oh yes, as with Crosby, the Habs are also his childhood club and his father's!

But beyond these beautiful and touching images, Kadri is above all an excellent left-handed center forward, and the kind that is hard to play against and not at all relaxing to face. He has a tiring side, not always moral-moral, that disturbs his opponents in the playoffs, just like a certain Sam Bennett…

All in all, Kadri has 44 points in 52 playoff games, with a Stanley Cup in Colorado. Not bad clutch, that.

The Avalanche have never been the same club in the spring since his departure.

And, in Montreal, we like “spring” players.

Conclusion

Of course, things have time to change a thousand times between now and the trade deadline on March 6.

The Penguins and several other clubs could fall in the standings, and new targets could appear on the radar screen…

In the meantime, Kadri is just one option among many, with the likes of Zacha, O'Reilly, Schenn and Kyrou coming to mind.

At 35, some may find Kadri “too old” and the remainder of his contract a little too long (2029). Perhaps an O'Reilly would do the trick while Hage and/or Zharovsky took over?

But we could also say that if Crosby really wants to finish his career in Pittsburgh, Kadri may be the one with the best chance of winning the Cup at least once over the next four springs…

An experienced, talented, left-handed center with dog. A winner. That's certainly one missing ingredient in HuGo's recipe.

A more important ingredient than Kaiden Guhle, in my opinion.

But, who knows, maybe the Habs don't need to sacrifice Guhle to acquire Kadri?

Maybe Guhle is too much a part of the identity, the fiber, of the Canadiens to part with him?

It all depends on what the Flames want and what vision Hughes and Gorton have in mind for the next few years.

The evaluation of David Reinbacher could be decisive. Perhaps he'll be the one sacrificed…

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