How Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has re-invented himself midway through his career

It’s a double-edged sword to grow up as the son of a future Hall-of-Famer. Guerrero Jr. been asked about his experience dozens of times. Articles have been written about his childhood, what it’s like to “live up” to his name, and anything else that journalists can come up with. For all the good that Vlad Sr. did for his son, at the end of the day, Vlad Jr. doesn’t credit his father with his career; he credits someone else – his uncle, Wilton Guerrero, an eight-year MLB veteran in his own right.

See, Vlad Jr. didn’t grow up with his dad. His parents split when Guerrero was just a toddler, with Vlad Jr. moving to the Dominican Republic before he could swing a bat. It was in the Dominican Republic where Vladdy split time between his mother’s house in Santiago and his uncle’s in Don Gregorio. It was in Don Gregorio with Uncle Wilton that Vlad learned to play, and more importantly, practice, quoting – “He’s the one who taught me to practice well and guided me to where I am” in an interview with Sportsnet in 2018.

Having a pro ballplayer for a father is one advantage, but pro players are busy. Growing up getting coaching from a .282 career-hitter just two years removed from the majors is a near-foolproof recipe for success.

Compared to the publicity that it receives in America, youth baseball in the Dominican Republic is a mystery. Most fans and amateur scouts have to rely on prospect showcases run through the MLB, and most Major League clubs rely on full-time scouts living in Latin America to find prospects under the age of 16. It was at one of these showcases that the world was first truly introduced to Vlad Guerrero Jr. A YouTube video from November of 2014 showed a then-15-year-old Vladdy smash 33 homers in 60 pitches at a home run derby set up by the Guerrero Baseball Academy.

In the Dominican Republic, Vladdy Jr. played as much as he could. He frequently worked with the Dominican Prospect League (DPL) and spent the rest of his time working with his Uncle Wilton at the Guerrero Baseball Academy. He was signed by the Blue Jays on July 2 as an international free agent and moved to the US for the following season at just 16.

After signing a $3.9 million deal, I’m sure 15-year-old Vlad saw visions of MLB ballparks and private planes right away, but that’s not how baseball works. It doesn’t matter if you’re the biggest international prospect in baseball; once you get into the system, you’re just another player trying to make the bigs. Between 2016 and 2018, Vladdy played for seven different ball clubs across seven different leagues, with varying degrees of success. He struggled a little in his first 60 games of Rookie ball, but after being brought up to single-A, he dominated every level he played. At. He played 276 games over those two seasons and commanded a batting average of .330 across all levels.

His performance would earn him a spot on the Blue Jays in 2019, where he played 123 games as a 20-year-old, batting .272 and picking up 126 hits as a rookie, good enough to finish sixth in rookie voting that season.  The minor league circuits are a grind, and for some players, it’s difficult to stomach. Vlad spoke about this with Vice News in 2017, crediting his father for giving him some solid advice – “He said, that where I start, it doesn’t mean I’m going to end up there too – By going forward, everything is possible”. Patience clearly paid off for Vlad, because almost ten years after that interview, he’s the highest-paid first baseman in MLB history.

It’s not easy to be the biggest prospect in baseball playing on a team starved for success. When Vlad Jr. made his debut in 2019, fans were still reeling from back-to-back ALCS eliminations in 2015 and 2016. They thought those teams could do it, and when they failed, they struggled for the next two seasons, finishing fourth in the division both years. In 2019, it was much of the same story, even with Vlad. Toronto finished fourth in its division, but it felt different. This time, there was a glimmer of hope filtering through the clouds. Hope that took the form of two rookies, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

After a solid rookie season, Vlad stumbled slightly in his COVID-shortened sophomore campaign. It was the first time fans had seen his power disappear. In that sophomore season, Vlad grounded into almost as many double plays as he hit homers. At the end of the year, after averaging less than a hit per game with a career-low batting average, Vlad’s struggles in 2020 came to a head in the playoffs. It was Vladdy’s first taste of postseason baseball, and it turned sour quickly, managing just one hit in eight plate appearances, en route to a sweep against the Tampa Bay Rays.

After a 2020 season that could only be described as a disappointment, Vladdy got to work in the offseason, showing up to spring training 35 pounds lighter than he left the ballpark in 2020. The work paid off. At just 22 years old, Vlad managed 47 home runs and 111 RBI’s; he batted .301 and finished with an OPS of over 1.000, finishing second in MVP voting. It was an incredible individual performance that was only spoiled by the Blue Jays missing out on a postseason berth at the end of the year. Even then, Vladdy’s incredible season softened the blow of the team’s performance for fans, as far as they were concerned, Toronto had its star – an extraordinary individual who could carry the franchise on his back for the next ten years.

Vlad’s following season was a step back from his breakout in 2021 but was certainly an acceptable year. Vlad knocked in 32 home runs and batted .274 – not explosive numbers, but certainly not bad enough to have fans worried. Of course, there were some concerning slumps, and nobody in MLB grounded into more double plays, but this was Vladdy; he’d be fine. Fans and pundits were confident he would bounce back in 2023 and find his pop once again. His performance in the playoff did continue to concern, though. In the 2022 ALWC against the Seattle Mariners Vlad managed just one hit in nine plate appearances in his second attempt at postseason baseball, and the Jays were swept once again with Vlad and fans left looking for another bounce back in 2023.

Unfortunately for Vlad, the 2023 season would not prove to be a bounce-back year. Guerrero struggled at the plate even more than he did in ‘22, finishing with just 26 homers. He didn’t have a bad season compared to the MLB average, but he certainly wasn’t a dominant offensive force. To Vlad’s credit, he was playing at an All-Star level, just not in the way that was advertised. Vlad was supposed to be a power hitter, a 40 home run guy, not a low-end All-Star.

After the lacklustre regular season, Vlad got a chance to change the narrative in the playoffs. Once again, Toronto relied on Vladdy in a playoff series, and once again, he faltered, managing just one hit in eight plate appearances. The Jays were swept once again, and another pay raise was given to Vlad in the offseason.

To open the 2024 season, Vlad managed just seven homers in the team’s first 74 games and had an on-and-off hitting slump for the first 30. Pundits were making a living analyzing his messy advanced analytics, while fans criticized his offensive woes. While Vlad struggled at the plate, Toronto was failing in the standings, with a negative win percentage for four of the first five months of the year.

It wasn’t until the All-Star game that Vladdy started to turn things around – but he did so dramatically. Vlad commanded a batting average over 310 for the final 50 games of the season. He hit homers at the highest rate since 2021, and his OPS soared to just under 1.000. Vladdy’s performance didn’t matter, though, as Toronto went into freefall in September of 2024, going 7-17 when it mattered the most.

Before the 2025 season, Vlad signed the richest deal in Blue Jays history, making him the highest-paid first baseman in MLB history. A 14-year, $500 million deal that pays an average of $35 million a year. That’s not the kind of contract you give a low-level All-Star; it’s the kind you give a franchise talent. The Blue Jays made it clear to Vladdy this offseason that they see him as the player he was in 2021, and the market agreed. If Vlad had tested free agency, it’s rumoured he could have signed for upwards of $600 million.

This season, Vlad hasn’t been the player that Jays fans wanted him to be. He hasn’t been a power hitter with game-changing pop. Instead, he’s become one of the more effective contact hitters in MLB. 125 games into the 2025 MLB season, Vlad is batting .298 and is eighth in MLB in hits. His on-base percentage is third best in the league and 14^th in walks. Vlad only has 21 homers so far, but the Blue Jays are at the top of the American League, and Vladdy has been something that he hasn’t been in years – consistent. It seems as though Vlad came into 2025 with an approach in mind, and he’s been dedicated to it. His inflated chase rate is down significantly, and so is his GiDP rate. He might not be playing like the player fans wanted him to be, but nobody is complaining.

Vlad has figured something out in 2025. He built off his success in 2024 and has transformed his identity as a player into something more effective for the Blue Jays. Toronto has retooled effectively, surrounding Vlad with one of the deepest teams in MLB.

There’s only one question left for Vlad: Can he put it together in the postseason? Toronto should get the bye into the ALDS, and in a five-game series, they will need Vladdy to put together a net-positive performance. Vladdy is 0-6 in playoff games, with a batting average of .137. I don’t need to comment on the connection between Toronto-based franchises and stars performing in the postseason – but if this season is a repeat of 2023, someone will.