Skip to content
Your daily dose of hockey
News

Top-5 finish possible for the Canadiens
Kevin Vallée
Top-5 finish possible for the Canadiens
Credit: I think we often tend to underestimate just how different NHL draft lists are. There is very little consensus beyond the second pick… and even then. In reality, let’s take this for granted: no two lists are alike, from 1 to 32, and maybe even from 1 to 10. There may be a few identical […]
I think we often tend to underestimate just how different NHL draft lists are.

There is very little consensus beyond the second pick… and even then.

In reality, let’s take this for granted: no two lists are alike, from 1 to 32, and maybe even from 1 to 10.

There may be a few identical ones, if we’re talking about the top-5, because the number of possible combinations is lower, but there certainly aren’t just three or four versions of this chart.

That’s why the top five are always very difficult to predict, without insider information like Corey Pronman.

In fact, the analyst published a collection of quotes from NHL scouts and executives this morning, showing absolutely major differences of opinion.

One scout puts Michael Misa at number one.

Another thinks Anton Frondell is the second-best prospect. Some think Caleb Desnoyers is in the same category as Misa… and others think Frondell and Desnoyers are overrated.

Another puts Brady Martin in the top-3, while a counterpart thinks he’s overrated, not smart enough and a future third-line player.

One even thinks Porter Martone is the best forward of the crop.

Where am I going with my skis?

The top-5 is extremely difficult to predict, because there’s absolutely no way of knowing who is loved, or hated, by the teams that will select from the frontrunners.

A guy who’s 16th on one list could be 3rd on another. And that’s where it all comes tumbling down. Because the shortcut that a team has no advantage in backing out is totally false if they think they can get their hands on a player they believe in more a few rows down, as well as getting some goodies.

But that’s very, very risky. Unless you’re not a fan of anyone in the 4-10 range and think the best value will be further down the line.

I don’t know, you don’t know… But maybe Corey Pronman does.

Utah GM Doug Armstrong says he’s open to trading the 4th overall pick.

It’s fairly standard to say that, but it’s rare to see such a deal materialize. Remember the famous P.K. Subban deal for Leon Draisaitl and the Oilers’ 4th pick…

And the Mammoth would like a top-6 forward, something the Canadiens aren’t likely to offer for the 4th pick.

But what about the 5th and 6th?

The real question is, who’s THE guy on the team in question… and who’s the runner-up?

Fictional scenario! The Preds suspect that Schaeffer and Misa will come out 1 and 2, and they TRIPP on Anton Frondell and Caleb Desnoyers… but the Hawks and the Mammoth take them both, as in Scott Wheeler’s mockdraft.

But the Preds believe that James Hagens is a trap, that Brady Martin is overrated because of the U18s and that Porter Martone will be a third-line winger.

Will they reach with the next guy on their list, who’s likely to come out 12th… reluctantly select one of the above three guys… or explore their options? Will they think that two chances to hit a home run, in the middle of the first round, is more interesting than taking a guy they’re not tripping on?

It all depends on who’s available, and the club’s preferences at the podium.

And we’re talking about the Preds, but that applies to the other teams in the top-10, don’t get me wrong.

In closing, let’s flip the question to the other side.

Will the Canadiens necessarily fall in love with one of the players available in fourth place?

Please, let’s stop assuming that Desnoyers is that guy for the sole reason that he’s Québécois… Maybe they like Jake O’Brien, who knows….

But anyway, maybe the Canadiens like it, having the 16th and 17th picks…

One last thing: Kent Hughes and Jeff Gorton hide their cards very, very well. Be careful!


Overtime

– Pronman confirmed that Justin Carbonneau is higher on the lists than most people think.

– A funny, cool moment between Schaeffer and McDavid.

– Court day summary.

facebook icon Share twitter icon Tweet linkedin icon Share
Copied!
More Content