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We’ve recently been discussing various summer trade scenarios for the Canadiens.
First, we looked at six possible trades that would allow Kent Hughes to find the second-line center many are dreaming of… or not! Crosby, Barzal, Horvat, Larkin, Zacha and O’Reilly were all analyzed.
Perhaps Malkin could have been added as a very short-term option. Maybe we’ll come back to that..
Then, last week, we sub-scoped a few scenarios in which the Habs would move up a few spots in the draft, specifically targeting the 8th (Kraken) or 14th (Blue Jackets) spots. A few players might be worth a look. Bear? Mrtka? Carbonneau? Martin?
In both cases, whether it’s to get our hands on a seasoned player or to move up a few rungs, the Habs’ picks #16 and #17 have more often than not been at the center of our reflections.
In this way, we could see the summer of the Canadiens’ thinkers as a big utility calculus (hello Bentham and Mill!) in which we try to predict which scenarios would bring the most benefits (and the least disadvantages) for the organization.
In due course, we’ll have to evaluate a few options on the free agent market.
Long term and percentage of success…
However, when we interpret the words of Hughes and Gorton during the end-of-season review, both insisting that next season will be “even more difficult” and that we must “take nothing for granted”, that the team will still be “very young”, perhaps even “younger”, that it is not “done” and finally, that nothing changes, we want a group that will be “good for a very long time”, we understand that we won’t be looking at all costs to complete a spectacular transaction to improve the club this summer.
Clearly, the Habs’ two-headed entity is not most interested in short-term profits. In this “beginning of end of rebuilding” phase, if we say we’re putting “the present and the future in the balance”, in reality, we still seem to be thinking mainly in terms of the medium and long term.
So, if we were to sacrifice one or two first-round picks to complete a major transaction, it would probably be for an option that would have benefits for at least five years.
He might. If we’re talking about legacy and leadership model…
But we wouldn’t want to make the mistakes that others have made – sometimes in spite of themselves – like the Maple Leafs, Senators and Sabres, who “precipitated” their respective rebuilds with a few questionable decisions…
The Habs can always try to move up a few spots in the draft if they think a particular player is worth the risk. But the most likely scenario, and the one with the greatest potential payoff on May 24, with just over a month to go, is simply to… draft 16th and 17th!
By doing so, without sacrificing anything, the Habs will have the chance to draft TWO “impact players” who would theoretically be added to the core in three or four years’ time, exactly in the optimum period of anticipated success for this team.
Of course, as Simon ” Snake ” Boisvert demonstrated in a recent episode of Processus, on average, teams that draft at these positions make about one mistake out of two. So we can’t rule out this very realistic scenario.
At the same time, we understand that it’s not the scenario that offers the greatest guarantee of success.
It’s always possible to ” swirl in the butter” like the Bruins and their infamous 2015 first round with Jakub Zboril, Jake Debrusk(correct…) and Zachary Senyshyn at 12th, 13th and 14th…
But the odds of success are still high if you do your homework with the scouts.
It is therefore entirely possible to hit two “home runs”.
But, as we shall see, at these ranks, you also need to appreciate the value of two “solid doubles” in the left-hand lane!
The typical profile of the 16th and 17th “best players” in a draft
Rather than repeat Snake ‘s excellent exercise and list who was drafted in the 16th and 17th spots between 2005 and 2020 in order to separate the good moves from the bad, I’m going to focus instead on what we have a right to expect from the 16th and 17th best players in each draft, i.e., a kind of “typical profile” of the player we can expect at these ranks.
In other words, what’s the average 16th and 17th best player in a draft?
Let’s do the exercise with the 2007 to 2012 auctions to get a good idea. This will give us a fairly accurate profile of players who have all played at least 600 games and who are, for the most part, at least three-quarters of the way through their careers.
For the purposes of this study, we’ve identified two forwards and two defensemen each year who could be considered the 16th and 17th best players in their respective drafts. Please note! These are not necessarily the 16th and 17th best scorers!
First observation: a general profile is clearly emerging. We’re talking about good midfielders: second- or third-line forwards; quality third- or fourth-line defensemen.
We’re talking about forwards of all styles and formats – most of them wingers – averaging around 40 points per season, with a few 50+ point seasons here and there. Seven out of twelve were drafted in the first round.
In retrospect, all (or almost all) of these players could be seen as “solid doubles”, even if in some cases the home run was undoubtedly attempted.
The Habs wouldn’t be crazy to trade one of these two picks for a player of this type who has reached maturity and still has several good years left in his body.
As is the case every year, there are bound to be two, three or four players left in these ranks who, in 10 years’ time, could be considered home runners, stars or, at the very least, impact players.
Since the Habs have two “glue” picks, it may be very tempting to go for the long ball with at least one of the two.
Cole Reschny has 74 points in his last 37 games. His 25 points through 10 playoff matches co-leads all CHLers.
No one is helping their draft stock out more than this kid right now. pic.twitter.com/EfG2jktCFE
– Cam Robinson (@Hockey_Robinson) April 22, 2025
Roger McQueen? It all depends on the doctors…
Carter Bear? He won’t be around.
That said, if only one remaining player is deemed worthy of a shot at closing and the remaining first-round pick is not traded, the “optimal scenario” could be to consolidate the draft with a “solid double”.
For example, a player who we can see fitting in well with the organizational culture and who fits a certain profile, say, “made for the playoffs. You might think of a typical talented forward with a dose of energy, character and sandpaper. Someone who will become your next Gallagher or Anderson. On defense, another Kaiden Guhle, drafted a very safe 16th in 2020, would fit the bill nicely.
Spitfires Team Awards!
Jack Nesbitt has been named the most improved player!
He will be looking to hear his name called at the NHL Draft in June! #WindsorSpitfires pic.twitter.com/T1K1OSXZw7
– X – Windsor Spitfires (@SpitsHockey) May 20, 2025
If they’re still available, I’d definitely put Justin Carbonneau and Brady Martin in this category with a “little plus” next to their names….
Mystery, mystery…
Finally, the Habs will maximize their chances of success by clearly establishing their strategy in the weeks and days leading up to the draft. We’ve probably already been working on this for some time.
Thus, both the trade scenarios discussed in recent weeks and the scenario of drafting 16th and 17th may not materialize until the very day of the draft, when we’ll know who’s still available starting at 7th or 8th.
