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Here’s the continuation of our article from last weekend, in which we predicted a hot summer for Canadiens fans...
Basically, at this stage of the rebuild and assuming that the Flames won’t win the lottery (1.1%!), it appeared to us that the use value of the twomid-1st-round picks the CH will have in June will be less for Kent Hughes than their trade value.
According to our analysis, no anticipatedmid-1st-round prospect appears to be a candidate for the position of quality second center in the near future. That includes right-handed center Brady Martin, for all his fine qualities, which Craig Button is touting these days on TSN’s U18…
Keeping one might not be crazy, but we’d be very surprised if the CH kept its two picks, as it has a crying need to fill right now.
Now that the CH has been eliminated and the weakness at second center has been identified as one of the main reasons for the quick exit against the Capitals – well before the degree of truculence displayed or not by Xhekaj and friends, let’s say – let’s turn without further ado to the options available on the trade market, since it’s this market that Kent Hughes is most interested in.
We’ll see in June if it’s worth tackling the free-agent market…
Different” but highly interesting targets
In our last article, we established that Hughes and Gorton had their hands pretty full when it came to choices and hopes to offer their colleagues around the NHL.
Filling the second-trio center position will become a real obsession in Montreal in the coming months, and theoretically, any of the players targeted in our research could be acquired with the quality assets available to Montreal executives.
So, between Sidney Crosby, Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, Pavel Zacha, Dylan Larkin and Ryan O’Reilly, who would be the best acquisition for the second-trio center position?
Is there really a bad option among these six?
Let’s delve a little deeper into the cases of Crosby and Barzal today, since these are the ones that strike the imagination the most.
We’ll return to the other four gentlemen in a later article.
This isn’ t the first time we’ve written about the possibility of the Tricolore acquiring the Penguins legend.
But now that Crosby has signed his contract extension, the Penguins have taken a further nosedive and the CH is ahead of its own plan, perhaps this scenario is becoming more realistic.
Crosby, who turns 38 in August, may no longer be at his peak, but he’s still one of the best in the business, as he demonstrated at the 4 Nations Confrontation.
If we were to be picky, we could say that he no longer has the same acceleration, and we could point in the direction of his advanced statistics, which have seen a slight drop this season compared to his average in recent years.
But it’s more likely that it’s the Penguins who have regressed enormously as a team.
So, what should interest the Canadiens most in his case is the length of his contract.
At $8.7 million for two more years, Hughes would not be handcuffed on the salary scale and would be almost guaranteed to get his money’s worth with the Cole Harbour native.
And that’s not counting the ultra-positive influence he would have on the current group of players.
In this respect, Crosby would be at least in the same category as Shea Weber and Carey Price.
The CH would have a leader AND an excellent left-handed center in the face-off circle to launch Demidov’s career and, who knows, maybe even help him become an NHL center himself – or at the very least, a more complete player.
If the Penguins are the least bit “logical” and want to revitalize their franchise by monetizing their aging stars, trading Crosby for prospects and draft picks is THE first thing to do. At the same time, they’ll improve their chances of selecting Gavin Mackenna, Landon Dupont and Maddox Schultz in the next three auctions…
And, with a few additions to the roster, if Crosby hopes to win another Stanley Cup, there will be worse places to play than Montreal for the next two seasons, or even longer if his heart and body hold out..
On that subject, we don’t know how many little Molson Exes the amiable Yvon Lambert had in his evening, but for what it’s worth, Kent Hughes is said to have told him of his interest in the “Bionic Penguin”. It may have been half-serious, but still…
All he has to do is deliver the fruits of his reflection to Kyle Dubas.
Perhaps he’ll want to remain loyal to the Penguins right into his grave. It’s probably still his first choice.
But if he wants to play in Montreal, the ball is in his court and the keys to the city are his.
Offer: I don’t think the CH has to offerfour first-round picks + Michael Hage for a 38-year-old player, as good as he is.
Come to think of it, that’s still “four first-round picks”, hehe!
In John Tavares’ final season with the Islanders, I still remember a young Mathew Barzal – in the midst of his 85-point rookie season – blowing away the Bell Centre crowd during warm-up.
Barzal would go on to win the Calder a few months later.
Perhaps his father’s interest in the Flanelle and the fact that he speaks French had something to do with it, but his pleasure at being the center of attention on this mythical rink was palpable. Sitting in the “reds” with a friend celebrating his 40th birthday, he can still be seen working his magic with the pucks before tossing a good half-dozen to the young fans on the other side of the bay window before retreating to the dressing room…
When healthy, Barzal is simply one of the best skaters and puck-handlers in the entire NHL. He’s also become very effective “on 200 feet” over the years.
And even though he’s downright bad in the face-off circle (42.3% in his career), he’s literally a puck-possession monster, as evidenced by his very impressive stats over the past five seasons.
But in addition to his state of health, which should be investigated in greater depth (he has played an average of 55 games over the last four seasons, but claims he’ll be fully fit for the next camp…), his rather slender profile as a playmaker and the fact that he’s right-handed could raise a few eyebrows.
Top-6 left-handed centers are non-existent in the Montreal organization…
On the other hand, if the doctors’ opinion is favourable, Barzal’s contract – $9.15M good until 2031 – and his age (28 this month), wouldn’t scare me, especially with the salary cap skyrocketing.
When you consider that even Jakob Chychrun pockets $9M per season..
A notch above Stützle and Cozens in Ottawa? Maybe so…
That said, the CH could have some competition if it ventures into the market to acquire Barzal, a native of Coquitlam, British Columbia.
But he also has what it takes to seduce the Isles. He would even have the luxury of overpaying.
Finally, we don’t think Barzal will have the same status as a Crosby in Pittsburgh in the eyes of his future boss on Long Island. But if he were to suggest that Montreal would be his preferred destination in a trade, it wouldn’t hurt..
With Crosby, we’re obviously in a shorter-term project where the ideal would be to compete now for the Cup while ensuring a transition to Michael Hage or Ivan Demidov in the role of second (or first!) center.
That’s why I’d be rather reluctant to include Hage in a deal for Sid the Kid. But who knows what Dubas might demand in return for his captain?
When you read about the Penguins, many team observers even think that Crosby is still too good. He’s not going anywhere, and he needs to stay in place to ensure the team’s recovery.
Will it still be a little too early in the Montreal process to invest so many assets in such a short-term project? Will the youngsters still be too young? Hmmm… We’d need to acquire at least one other seasoned veteran to maximize the chances of success.
That’s an analysis for another day, but we know that Crosby “on his own” wouldn’t be enough over such a short period of time… and that, ultimately, he’ll be the one to decide his future.
In short, even if it’s an almost poetic idea, we shouldn’t hold our breath too long in the case of #87.
Maybe he will, maybe he won’t…
If he stays injury-free, Barzal should be good enough until the end of his contract (at 34) to remain a quality top-6 center. But he’ll certainly cost more than Crosby, and the Isles could demand Michael Hage in the adventure or the CH’s two1st-round picks this year.
We’ll know soon enough. The Islanders should announce the name of their new boss in the next few weeks, and his first task will be to decide the fate of Barzal, Horvat and Dobson.
We’ll be back soon to continue the investigation with “suspects” Larkin, Zacha, O’Reilly and that same Horvat!
