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Since Christmas, the Caps have the same record as the Canadiens
Mathis Therrien
Since Christmas, the Caps have the same record as the Canadiens
Credit: Getty Images

The Montreal Canadiens’ opponent in the first round of the NHL playoffs won’t be an easy one.

The Washington Capitals didn’t finish first in the Eastern Association for nothing, and they have a very complete, well-built team.

In short, everything seems perfect for the Caps, and therefore everything seems to be to their advantage in this series against the Tricolore.

So why do so many experts (7 out of 18) believe in the CH’s chances of surprising the Caps?

In fact, a number of factors point to the fact that it won’t be a walk in the park for Alexander Ovechkin’s team.

Indeed, if we forget the Montreal Canadiens’ poor start to the season, well, since December 17, the CH and the Caps have had the same record (or close to it).

As you can see, since Christmas, the CH has accumulated 66 points to the Caps’ 67.

Those 66 points for the Tricolore are good for 7th in the NHL versus 5th for Washington.

And even when we look at more than just points, there aren’t any major differences between the two teams since Christmas, in several statistics.

Special units are very similar despite a slight advantage for the Caps (25% vs. 20%), both teams direct the same number of shots per game (26.7 vs. 26.3 for Montreal), and CH goaltending has performed slightly better.

In short, aside from the goal differential, the Tricolore has been competing very well with the Capitals since Christmas.

And all this becomes all the more interesting in the Habs’ favor when you look at the Caps’ statistics in their final regular-season stretch.

Indeed, since officially qualifying for the playoffs, Ovi’s gang has been on a tear.

As you can see, in addition to a better power play, Spencer Carbery’s team has been unrecognizable since March 23, scoring fewer goals and allowing many more.

As a result, the Caps have been winning far less recently, and a bad run before the playoffs is often not a good omen.

Going from allowing 2.54 goals per game to 4.25 is far from ideal, and it’s a sign of struggling goaltending.

And in this respect, it’s worth comparing CH and Caps goaltenders since the Four Nations break, because it clearly shows that Capitals goaltenders are struggling with their individual stats.

In short, even if many see the Caps getting off easy against the Habs, all these stats show that this was a much closer match-up than one might have imagined.

The Caps have slowed down considerably, and that could benefit the CH.


On a roll

– Really.

– To watch today.

– Blackwood was very solid last night.

– It’s clear.

– Ouch.

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