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Standing: the Canadiens didn’t get the tiebreaker against the Rangers (and it’s important)
Charles-Alexis Brisebois
Standing: the Canadiens didn’t get the tiebreaker against the Rangers (and it’s important)
Credit: Let’s talk about the standings a bit. When we look at it, we can see that the Senators will be difficult to catch in the first place among the drafted teams. If the Sens do what they have to do, they will qualify for the playoffs. We suspect that the race to watch is for […]
Let’s talk about the standings a bit.

When we look at it, we can see that the Senators will be difficult to catch in the first place among the drafted teams. If the Sens do what they have to do, they will qualify for the playoffs.

We suspect that the race to watch is for the Montreal Canadiens’ spot.

The Canadiens no longer have a game in hand against any direct opponents in the race – on the contrary – currently, but they have points ahead. In terms of points percentage, they are also ahead of the other teams outside the playoffs.

So, at the risk of repeating myself: if the habs do what they have to do, they can qualify for the playoffs.

The Islanders (seven points behind the habs) and the Red Wings (six points behind the habs) may have a game in hand over the Canadiens, but the carrots are starting to be well-cooked for these teams.

A miracle is always possible, though.

But logically, the teams that scare the habs the most right now must be the Blue Jackets and (especially) the Rangers. Looking at the standings, it’s a logical conclusion.

The Blue Jackets still have eight games to play, including two back-to-back and four road games. They also have the sixth most difficult schedule in the NHL from now until the end of the season – according to Tankathon, at least.

(Credit: NHL.com)
But most importantly, there is an important aspect to note: the Blue Jackets have two fewer regular-season wins than the habs. We’re talking about 24 for Columbus and 26 for the habs.

In the event of a tie after 82 games, it’s the number one factor in determining which team is ahead of the other.

So if the habs win more games in regulation than the Jackets from now until the end of the season, and the Ohio team gets four more points than the habs from now until the end of the season, the habs will still pass the Blue Jackets.

It’s therefore logical to think that the Blue Jackets need five more points than the habs (or several more wins in regulation, at least) to pass the habs in the standings. And that’s without counting the Rangers, who still exist.

And that brings us to the Rangers, precisely.

The New York Rangers (who were supposed to be an NHL power in 2024-2025) have played 75 games (like the habs) this season, have two points fewer than the habs, have the seventh most difficult schedule from now until the end of the season…

(Credit: NHL.com)
But they have 32 wins in regulation. Clearly, the habs (26) will not surpass the Rangers in this regard.

If the two teams have the same number of points at the end of the season, the Rangers will pass the habs in the standings. This is a very important aspect.

So the habs may have a two-point lead over the Rangers (and the third easiest schedule in the NHL from now until the end of the season), but they only have a one-point margin over the Rangers.

Winning games would not be a luxury for the habs. After all, a Rangers win on Saturday afternoon and a habs loss on Saturday evening would have the effect of temporarily removing the Montreal team from the playoff picture.

(Credit: NHL.com)
The habs have been rolling in sequences this year, and it will be necessary for the latest trend (three wins) to be the heavy trend from now until the end of the campaign. We must put the previous trend (five losses) aside.

Because otherwise, it will be hard to qualify.

The habs have a 55.8% chance of making the playoffs, according to MoneyPuck. And since the team will play more games at home than on the road from now until the end of the season (unlike the Rangers and Blue Jackets), this can be a help.

After all, except for the Sharks and Blackhawks, everyone in the NHL wins more often than not at home this season.


Overtime

– The idea of sending Jacob Fowler to Abbotsford to allow Cayden Primeau to be in Nashville on Sunday (and for Samuel Montembeault not to travel to Nashville for nothing) was raised by Martin Lemay and Bob Hartley. I liked the idea… but Fowler won’t be going to the West.

– Nick Suzuki: a revealing differential. [Réjean Tremblay]

– Ouch.

– Well done.

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