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Samuel Montembeault is the second most useful goalkeeper in the NHL according to a new statistic
Kevin Vallée
Samuel Montembeault is the second most useful goalkeeper in the NHL according to a new statistic
Credit: Getty Images

If you know baseball, you know that the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) statistic is undoubtedly the most revealing in terms of a player’s concrete contribution to their team. If you know basketball, the Wins Above Replacement Players (WARP) statistic is also recognized as one of the best, even if it has its limitations.

By accounting for a good quantity of positive actions for the outcome of a game, and comparing the outcome to what an average player would accomplish in such circumstances, we can try to put a number on the normally abstract value of a player.

A data science specialist, Patrick Bacon, developed such a statistic four years ago in the National Hockey League (NHL). On the new website of popular analyst @JFreshHockey, available for now only to Patreon subscribers, this statistic can be found.

One of these subscribers, a user of X, however, took a screenshot of the goalies’ statistics in terms of WAR. In second place is the Québécois goalie of the Canadiens, Samuel Montembeault. In fact, the stat is not bad, as Monty is sandwiched between the favorites for the Vezina: Connor Hellebuyck first, Andrei Vasilevskiy third, Logan Thompson fourth.

He is one notch behind Hellebuyck, and a hair ahead of Vasilevskiy.

Concretely, this means that Samuel Montembeault, according to this statistical model, brought 7 wins (14 points) more to the Canadiens.

And so, if the Canadiens had an average goalie between the posts, Montreal would be at the bottom of the NHL.

Perhaps there is a flaw, or an inflation of the stat? 14 points is a lot. In short, it’s the ranking that matters.

Nicolas Cloutier (TVA Sports) contacted @JFreshHockey for explanations. The latter explained that the “average goalie” constitutes the 65th best in the league.


Overtime

– Samuel Montembeault has almost had as many consecutive games as Carey Price’s peak during his Vezina season.

– Dustin Wolf still at the heart of the matter.

– What a season of redemption for Pierre-Luc Dubois.

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