Advanced stats: Martin St-Louis talks about four wins in five games

For five games, the Canadiens have been collecting losses. They are gradually falling out of the playoff race.

Of course, for those who want to believe in the playoffs, it’s not necessarily too late. But… let’s just say they will need to string together wins with a series of five games instead of the opposite.

The CH will have been #InTheMix for a few weeks, at least.

Obviously, Martin St-Louis cannot see it that way. He has to manage each game to win, which means he needs to find solutions. After all, if the CH loses a sixth in a row tonight against the Sharks (18 losses in their last 22 games), it won’t look good.

I have two solutions to help the Canadiens win games:

• Martin St-Louis could shave his beard to reverse the bad luck (I don’t wish for him to go that far)
• The Canadiens could play in a parallel universe: that of advanced stats

I’m saying this because Martin St-Louis, to put the last five games into perspective, explained that the CH hasn’t played as poorly as their record indicates. Why does he say that?

Because as reported this morning by Anthony Marcotte on BPM Sports, St-Louis argued yesterday that based solely on advanced stats, the CH would have won four of their last five games.

The game he would have lost? The one against the Devils, the only one where the team pushed the game into overtime.

Of course, St-Louis is not saying that the CH is the best team in the league. What he is saying is that the CH has shot themselves in the foot in games where they had chances… and that they are not as bad as a team that loses five straight.

It’s hard to contradict him with facts because no one has access to the advanced stats of the CH as such… but the eye test makes me say that even if the CH made some sacred “actions to help the other team” during the games, they were not in the driver’s seat during those games.

The game against the Wild, well… I don’t see in what aspect the CH deserved to win.

St-Louis is not afraid to explain things as he sees them, even if he knows it will not go over well publicly. He understands that advanced stats don’t provide the complete picture of the team, but it’s clear that I was taken aback listening to the coach.

And I’m not the only one. Anthony Marcotte, reiterating the coach’s words (who said that sequences of four potential wins in five games via advanced stats are rare in a season), stated:

It’s a bit special to hear that, because it means that during the Canadiens’ success streak, we should have lost.

So, in other words, we have a pretty ordinary team. – Anthony Marcotte

St-Louis’s point is that the CH needs to do as they did before, which is to find ways to win regardless. But the use of advanced stats should not become an excuse in the locker room.

Because the real wins are in the standings.

With our lack of focus and details, we find ways to lose.

But it’s not like we are too far from what it takes to win. But it’s not enough at present. – Martin St-Louis on his team

Tonight, against the San Jose Sharks (the worst team in the league), the CH cannot afford to lose (in real life or in the land of advanced stats): it would be a defeat too painful for the group.

Losing tonight would be fatal.

Overtime

We will see if Josh Anderson, who missed practice yesterday, will be present for today’s game. We won’t know during training since there will be none. And as long as Owen Beck is not officially recalled, we must remember that the CH cannot really leave Anderson aside.

Let’s recall that Samuel Montembeault will play tonight.

#Habs will not have a morning skate in San Jose ahead of tonight’s game vs. #TheFutureIsTeal
Sam Montembeault will get the start

— Priyanta Emrith (@HabsInHighHeels) February 4, 2025