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Following the irresistible streak of 12 wins in 17 games by the Canadiens since December 3, coinciding with Laine’s return to play, there is a slight scent of playoffs at the city’s doorstep.
Can such a push, during which the Canadiens play at .705, be maintained until the end of the season?
One might doubt it.
But in any case, the Canadiens won’t need to play at .700 in the second half of the season to qualify for the playoffs. If that were the case, it would result in a 100-point season!
The Blue Jackets, in 8th place, have 44 points in 42 games, a pace of 85 points…
If our resurgent Glorious ones from the last few weeks manage to collect, let’s say, 50 points in the next 41 games (.625), a very realistic estimate based on the team we’ve seen over the last 2 months, they would finish the race with 94 points, which should be enough to qualify in the East.
Indeed, it is by looking at the last 25 games, going back to November 11 – the day of the famous 7-5 victory in Buffalo where the players may have said something like “ enough is enough ” – that we can better establish the probabilities of a little set square in spring at the Bell Centre.
Following Kent Hughes’ press conference earlier this week, here are five factors that could further solidify playoff participation for the Tricolore.
1. A major breakthrough for Kirby Dach
It’s easy to forget, but Kirby Dach had already experienced a breakout before his two major knee injuries. In his first season in the metropolis, he had already become a center capable of producing at a rate of over 50 points in a full season.
In everyone’s eyes, he was a completely legitimate second-line center and I was among those who believed his potential was slightly higher than Suzuki’s, when considering overall impact.
Of course, the problem is that Dach has not yet experienced a full season.
But here he is at mid-season, still injury-free (knock on wood), and after a difficult first half for various good and less good reasons (conditioning?), the Albertan has the chance to be reborn and experience another major breakout.
Despite still making too many thoughtless passes, Dach is showing increasing signs that his form is returning. In addition to his four goals and five points in his last six games, he is more often seen with the puck, and his speed seems to have returned, as he is slightly above the NHL average in this area.
These increasingly frequent peak speeds, along with his agile pivots, may indicate that the knee surgeries may not have left too much of a mark in his case, which would already be a stroke of luck for his team and him.
Provided that pretty much everyone stays healthy and continues to play up to their potential, a breakthrough from Dach could be THE deciding factor between making and missing the playoffs.
So, no pressure Kirby, but this one is still a bit on you!
Apart from Dach and Newhook, Slafkovsky is the only other forward (with Newhook, to a lesser extent) whose season has so far left us somewhat wanting. There’s no need to go into too much detail about it.
Kent Hughes has also been very clear on this subject: Slaf can do more.
He needs to redeem himself in the second half, and he knows it. He actually played one of his best games of the season yesterday in Washington.
His production isn’t too bad when he’s paired with Suzuki and Caufield; he regularly dominates along the boards and makes some beautiful passes to his talented teammates, as was the case again yesterday or like here earlier this week:
Venez pour le but de Caufield, restez pour la SOLIDE mise en échec de Guhle
pic.twitter.com/feGfdByCFk
— TVA Sports (@TVASports) January 7, 2025
The Canadiens will need the best from their big Slovak forward as the games become more intense and fiercely contested.
We don’t just want to see flashes here and there; we want to see real full-time Slaf.
The Canadiens are not yet the kind of team that can regularly win with “ordinary” performances from their goaltenders.
That may come, but… not yet.
Montembeault and Dobes will therefore need to continue delivering performances worthy of the best duos in the NHL if the Canadiens hope to qualify for the playoffs.
But the young Dobes, 23, is hungry and impresses with his temperament and athletic qualities, particularly in his play with his large pads…
The big Czech, 6’4, 215 lbs, shows enormous potential.
Following his three very conclusive starts in the NHL – against three recent Stanley Cup champions, no less – we can expect Dobes to start an average of one game out of three until the end of the schedule… and Monty knows it’s best to be good in the two others, or else it could be more…
Having two performing goaltenders is one heck of a nice problem for any team…
The Canadiens already have 12 picks (!!!) in the upcoming draft and nine more in 2026. Do they really need more?
Let’s say… not really?
And that’s exactly what Kent Hughes hinted at during his press conference.
If he hadn’t returned to the “mix” and was still hoping to draft in the top-5 of the upcoming draft, Hughes would likely have been inclined to trade Dvorak, Savard, or even Evans and Armia, if only to weaken the team further in the short term.
But now it feels like he won’t want to trade these four future unrestricted free agents for scraps. At worst, he will prefer to keep them and see them as his own rental players!
And that’s where it could get very interesting.
Thus, in such a context, without deviating from the long-term plan, if they could make another “similar” trade to those they made to acquire Laine and Carrier, young players with a few years left on their contracts, why not?
Mailloux, Struble, Roy, Mesar, Kapanen, and especially the eight second and third-round picks in the next two drafts then become all potential pieces if the offer is good.
Hughes has also taken care to list all these nice and numerous picks in front of the cameras during his Wednesday press conference…
We would however be very surprised if the two first-round picks of 2025 were put in play by the Canadiens; maybe one in return for a young veteran who could be integrated into HuGo’s overall plan, but not both.
The Tricolore must complete its reconstruction, and these two picks – or what may result from them – must serve to complete the foundations of the reconstruction, leaving virtually no organizational deficiencies in a medium to long-term perspective.
However, if the Canadiens are in the playoff picture and decide to bet on themselves by seeing themselves as a playoff team with a Demidov in the lineup next season, the first pick of 2026 would be much more tempting to trade than those of 2025…
Reminder: In the CH’s video on its last draft (at 7 min 30 sec), when GORTON asks him in an interview if he sees himself as a “ franchise player ”, Demidov, smiling confidently, answers in the affirmative without even hesitating.
In general, “franchise” players have a significant impact from their first season, and it shouldn’t be any different for Demidov.
A nice question from Marc-Antoine Godin during last Wednesday’s press conference: “Kent, what do you see as the most sustainable thing in this team?”
Hughes replied that it was the culture that is being established in the locker room, a culture that all winning clubs possess.
There indeed seems to be a well-embedded “team first” mentality in the words and attitude of the players. This is a factor that is already contributing to the team’s success and may make the difference between the Canadiens and their competitors this season and for those to come…
