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Three near-first-round picks… That was the case in 2022, and it’s likely to be the case again in 2025.
As we speak, the Montreal Canadiens are headed for a glittering top-4 pick and a mouth-watering top-20 (Flames), not to mention the1st pick of the second round, 33rd overall.
I don’t know if Hughes and Gorton will be tempted to do the same thing they did in 2023, when they traded picks #31 and #37 to get Alex Newhook, but it’s an avenue to be used with great caution, because better players than Newhook regularly remain in the draft at the start of the2nd round…
Good scouts need to be able to identify them…
That said, with the time at my disposal, it’s too early to make an informed judgement on potential early-second-round picks. It’s a difficult exercise just a few days before the draft, so in November, it’s a no!
However, a good deal of thought has already gone into the top-4, which, while not set in stone, seems set to take shape fairly quickly.
If we all agree that the Habs have just as many needs up front as they do at the back, in light of what we’re seeing on the horizon, what would be the Habs ‘optimal top-4 pick next June?
If the Habs finish last in the overall standings – which would surprise me enormously, but hey – 5’10 Boston College center James Hagens, Missisauga right winger Porter Martone, Erie defenseman Matthew Schaefer and Saginaw center Michael Misa will all be available for the Habs to take.
In my opinion, none of them stands out all that much from the other three right now, and once again this year, the first teams to draft are likely to go with the optimal choice in their eyes, considering both the player’s talent and their organizational needs and culture.
And what would be the Habs’ optimal pick as of today?
A left-handed center with more talent than Nick Suzuki?
A big, right-handed winger capable of filling the net and distributing the puck at least as well as Slafkovsky does as a lefty? Martone even has a much better scoring touch than Slaf, who remains bigger, stronger and a better passer than the Ontarian.
Or a #1 left-handed defenseman somewhere between Miro Heiskanen and Rasmus Dahlin?
For his part, if he were in the shoes of Hughes and Gorton at the moment and had doubts about his future defense (recurring injuries to Guhle and Reinbacher, defensive potential of Huston, Mailloux, Xhekaj, etc.), the ever-relevant Simon “Snake” Boisvert, would turn to defenseman Schaefer, probably the safest bet of the four players mentioned, all things considered.
MATTHEW SCHAEFER ARE YOU SERIOUS?
The top-rated #NHLDraft prospect with a GORGEOUS move to give the @ErieOtters the lead late in the second period! #OHL | @CHLHockey pic.twitter.com/oEVNsKFK7a
– Ontario Hockey League (@OHLHockey) November 14, 2024
Talent is coming out of Schaefer’s ears, both offensively and defensively. We’re talking about a skater with rare fluidity, excellent hands, a good shot and above-average vision. A guy who can play 25 minutes without a problem, night after night. A future number 1 every day of the week and twice on Sundays.
According to Boisvert, Schaefer’s selection would even guarantee the Habs a Stanley Cup within 6 years! Nothing less!
Schaefer-Reinbacher
Hutson-Guhle
All that’s left is to decide between Struble, Xhekaj, Engstrom on the left and Mailloux, Barron on the right.
Finally, if the Habs don’t draft a guy like Schaefer, they’ll have to try to be the first team in the modern era to win the Stanley Cup with a #1 defenseman under 5’11 and 170 lbs in Lane Hutson!
BUT, we all also know that Nick Suzuki isn’t the ideal first center for a champion club, or at the very least, that the Habs need another top-quality center to help them out.
Is that center Kirby Dach?
Is it Ivan Demidov?
Is it Juraj Slafkovsky, who should at least deserve a try in this year… of tries?
For the moment, nothing is less certain, and left-handed centers James Hagens and Michael Misa would be hard to ignore, because in the last 40 years, we haven’t seen many teams win the Cup without the equivalent of at least two very good center players.
Very fluid on skates, superb playmaker, good defensively, very supple hands, James Hagens is a kind of blend of Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes.
The American practically treaded water last year with the USNDT (102 points in 58 games) and at U18 (22 points in 7 games).
A favorite on most lists right now, Hagens could go downhill in the coming months. He’s playing well, but isn’t throwing anyone off their chair at Boston College with his 11 points in 8 games, including just 1 goal.
Then there will always be legitimate doubts about a 5’10 number-one center, especially from a playoff perspective…
That’s why another left-handed center, Michael Misa, 6’1, 185 lbs, former OHL first choice and player of exceptional status at 15, teammate of Owen Beck and Memorial Cup champion with Saginaw last spring, is likely to make more and more noise in the coming months.
Michael Misa has 21 goals. He’s played 17 games.
Tops in the CHL. pic.twitter.com/VMCyKnYkPP
– Cam Robinson (@Hockey_Robinson) November 10, 2024
Misa is an agile skater who shows great finesse in his game and has a surgical shot that he unleashes at lightning speed. An instinctive and intelligent player, he also does very well defensively. Finally, 23 goals and 39 points in 19 games so far this season is “something I think…”, as the great Mario would say! Over a projected 68-game season, that’s 82 goals and 139 points!
In short, even if there’s no unanimous candidate for the top spot, it’s hard to see how the teams drafting in the top-4 can go wrong next June.
For now, as far as I’m concerned, if I were HuGo, I’d say it’s between Misa and Schaefer, with perhaps a slight advantage for Misa.
But we’d still have to try out Slaf in the center before making a decision, unless we’re already certain that’s where we’ll be playing Demidov in the near future…
