The problem is expectations (set and validated by management)

The Canadiens had another tough night last night in Washington. The season is not even a month old, and already the Montrealers have had five thaws since the start of the season:

6 to 3 vs Penguins
4 to 1 vs Kings
7 to 2 vs Rangers
8 to 2 vs Kraken
6 to 2 vs Capitals

This was the team’s first thaw on the road, the other four having (unfortunately) been suffered in front of Montreal fans at the Bell Centre.

Apart from the play of Lane Hutson, Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovsky, nothing is going right for the Canadiens.

Okay, maybe I’m exaggerating, but Brendan Gallagher and Josh Anderson are giving it their all…

But for the rest, it’s zero, as Julie Masse sang.

The Habs have the second-worst cumulative differential in the NHL(minus-15). Differential means nothing individually when the sample is small, but collectively, over a sequence of more than 10 games, it’s very revealing.

The Canadiens aren’t just losing games: they’re constantly getting washed out. It’s not necessarily the fact that the team has won only four of its 11 games that worries me this morning, it’s the fact that it’s downgraded far too often.

1. Montreal’s goaltenders (and defense) are giving up the most goals per game on average so far this season in the Bettman circuit: 4.18. And the forwards don’t even score three per game…

2. The Canadiens have been dominated in shots on goal in nine of their 11 games, often by almost twice as many.

3. In five-on-five situations, the Canadiens are struggling. Only the Ducks have a worse Corsi than the Habs in the entire NHL.

4. The Canadiens are on track for a 67-point season, which would put them in the NHL’s bottom 5 for the fourth year in a row. This would put the Habs in 28th place for the third straight season (after finishing 32nd and last).

5. Christian Dvorak, who made yet another mistake that no quality NHLer can afford to make last night, should be waived and sent to Laval.

6. Arber Xhekaj, Joel Armia, Alex Newhook…

I could go on like this until tomorrow, but I have professional (and personal) obligations.

Expectations
Before the start of the season, I said repeatedly – and got crap for it – that I didn’t believe in the Habs ‘ chances of making the playoffs. I watched the playoffs last spring and the Canadiens were light years away from being able to play that style of hockey.

And it couldn’t be said that the team we saw during the preparatory schedule was any better than last year’s: Dach, Kapanen, Hutson and Heinamen IN, Kovacevic, Allen, Monahan, Pearson and Ylonenv OUT…

In short, I’m not surprised (at all) by the Canadiens’ successive defeats. Although the way we’re taking a lot of these losses is worse than I expected, but hey…

Except that something has changed with the Habs. Martin St-Louis saying he doesn’t want to listen to criticism from people he wouldn’t ask for advice… Juraj Slafkovsky claiming he doesn’t have a solution/explanation, adding to journalists that they’ll probably find it when they write their articles… Cole Caufield implying to Guillaume Lefrançois that the latter can’t really talk about the consequences of shoulder surgery, because he’s never had shoulder surgery…

Clearly, the media and fans have higher expectations this season… and so does the club!

A year after refusing to utter the “P” word , management, coaching staff and players talked in September about at worst being in the mix, and at best making them, the damned playoffs.

Nobody expected the Canadiens to win the Stanley Cup this year (or next), but pretty much everyone expected to see progress, however small. Management’s message wasn’t the same this year.

But right now, we’re not seeing any. And we should still see some, even if Patrik Laine is out of action…

Defensively, in our zone, it’s even worse than last year. And the year before that too…

The problem, in my opinion, is that the organization set the bar too high (too fast) when it talked about a mix last September. The club is still rebuilding and there are still holes everywhere. There are plenty of youngsters to learn, especially at the back, and a number of high-paid veterans are no longer doing anything up front. Thinking we’d make the playoffs with this group was a dream come true.

And believe me, there were plenty of dreams among Montreal fans. If you knew how many people bet on “yes, the Canadiens will make the playoffs” at Mise-o-jeu…

Kent Hughes and Jeff Gorton set the bar too high before the start of the campaign with their mix. And the fans, fed up with spending flat evenings in front of their TV sets, or even worse, spending a fortune on one-way games at the Bell Centre, drank the Kool-Aid. It’s normal, sport is emotional/irrational… and they hope for the best for their team.

Except that in sport (as in life), it’s important to set goals that are achievable, but still relatively difficult to reach. If you reach them too easily, you’ll demote yourself. Same thing if you never reach them! That’s what high-level coaches are taught in training courses…

P.R. or poor assessment?
Some people claim that Kent Hughes and Jeff Gorton talked about mixes because, at PR level, not doing so would have been a disaster. So they lied or misrepresented the truth in front of the cameras…

Instead, I think the Canadiens’ management believed their team was a little further along than it actually is.

Otherwise, why lie? Every thaw puts a huge (and new) layer of disappointment/pressure on chum Martin behind the bench. Trying to avoid 24-48 hours of disappointment in September, only to have your fan base experience it for six months, isn’t exactly P.R. excellence!

I think so too.

I don’t think Kent Hughes and Jeff Gorton said they wanted to be in the mix for PR reasons, thinking “no, we’re going to be in the cellar again, but we have to pretend.”

I think they saw themselves going from 32, to 27-28, to 20-24. #TheirMix

– Maxime Truman (@MaximeTruman) November 1, 2024

In short, we’re all unfortunately in the same spot as last year: we all want to turn off our TVs before the Habs games are over.

At least youngsters like Slafkovsky, Caufield, Suzuki, Hutson and Guhle are making progress. Lucky them…

What’s next?
Since a number of Habs executives told Pierre LeBrun, Elliotte Friedman and Frank Seravalli that the Canadiens were looking for reinforcements on the blue line (right-handed defenseman), up front (sturdy forward) and in front of the net (experienced goaltender), I agree that no, Habs management isn’t satisfied with their team’s start to the season. They were hoping for better. Which confirms, in my opinion, that it wasn’t just a P.R. move to talk about being in the mix…

There’s a storm brewing around the Canadiens right now, and we’d all like it to stop. The Habs first!

I’m pretty sure Martin St-Louis and his bosses didn’t see their team throwing up all over themselves when they made projections in September.

Since we can’t lower expectations once they’ve been clearly established, Hughes and Gorton will have to find reinforcements, elsewhere or in Laval…

Martin St-Louis will have to adjust his defensive system and start hard coaching. We’re going to have to get rid of the veterans who’ve run out of steam. Otherwise, the culture instilled in the youngsters won’t be the right one…

And the guys are going to have to start playing in a more structured way. And with more conviction and determination…

Because right now, the Canadiens are like the ti-gars who are aiming for 60% on their report card, but got 30% and 40% on their first try. He’s going to have to start studying and stop foxing when it’s sunny in the afternoon (and he has math, French, science or English classes)…