Marc Bergevin’s legacy in rebuilding the Habs

Last Thursday’s showdown with the Leafs and that bugger Max Pacioretty reminded us of two things.

Firstly, a lot of water has passed under the bridge since his trade for Suzuki, the highlight of the reset on the fly.

But more importantly, out of curiosity, this question: what contribution will the Bergevin era make to the eventual “dominant” core of the Habs?

The roots of the rebuild

We previously wrote that the true roots of the Habs rebuild – well sold these days in a Crave infomercial of sorts – date back to the spring of 2018.

There’s no need to review in detail all of Bergevin’s good and bad moves from 2018 until his dismissal.

Let’s just remember the general spirit and a few key moments.

From 2018 until Bergevin’s dismissal in November 2021, the Habs didn’t try to tank, per se.

Caufield (15th, 2019) and Guhle (16th, 2020) are mid-first-round picks.

But let’s not forget that, were it not for the COVID and Gary Bettman’s “very inclusive” summer mini-tournament, the Habs would never have made the playoffs in 2020…

Under normal circumstances, they should have drafted 8th, not 16th!

Without tanking, 2018 to 2020 are therefore the years when Bergevin wasn’t scrambling to get the Habs into the playoffs at all costs either.

His all-in was in preparation for the second pandemic-shortened season, 2021. A gamble that almost paid off, three victories away from the Cup!

But the work accomplished from 2018 to 2020, the reset on the fly, is clearly the first phase of the work that the Habs’ “house” needed, and that their new managers are still benefiting from today.

A “reset” that allowed us to get our hands on young star or impact players like Suzuki, Caufield, Romanov and Guhle actually became a damn good start to rebuilding, a start to rebuilding that was already 7-8 years old and without which it would have been impossible to envisage any return to relevance before 2030!

It’s no surprise to hear G. Molson repeat that the Habs are only in “year three” of their rebuild. The more we repeat it, the bigger the show! But, 2021 finals notwithstanding, the reality is that the Habs are entering Year 8 of their 2-phase rebuild. And that’s okay!

– Tony Patoine (@PatoineTony) September 16, 2024

But, of course, the post-Stanley Cup mess (Danault’s departure, Weber and Price’s retirement, a Bergevin without a contract and quite a bit sour and at the end of his rope, etc.) was going to call for a more radical operation and resulted in a very clear rebuilding mandate for Gorton and Hughes…

Just without the loss of Danault, it would have been difficult to “select” Slafkovsky…

A significant contribution from the old regime
But, following our recent methodology attempting to establish core value by scoring different categories of players, roughly what percentage of the team’s future “big core”, say the one we should see from 2026-2027 onwards, will still be attributable to the Bergevin era?

Today, we’ll be using a more nuanced version of our methodology, freely inspired by a recent article published on The Athletic, where we’ll no longer be classifying “superstar” and “elite” in the same category that was once worth 15 points.

Also, let’s clarify that the minimum threshold to be considered a complementary player worthy of being part of the core is to be projected as an above-average 3rd line player or an above-average 5th defenseman.

Finally, players attributable to the former regime who enabled Hughes/Gorton to obtain new players will be counted fairly accordingly (50/50).

Projected core from 2026-2027
Categories/managers	Bergevin-Timmins-Churla	Hughes-Gorton-Bobrov-Lapointe
Generational (20 pts) McDavid on his desert island.	–	–
Elite/MVP/Franchise (16 pts) MacKinnon, Kucherov, Makar et cie	–	–
Supervedette (13 pts) F. Forsberg, Barzal, Morrissey, etc.		Slafkovsky-Demidov Hutson (39)
Star (10 pts) A. Svechnikov. Suzuki, Werenski, Ehkolm, etc.	Suzuki (10)	Harris-Laine (5 pts)* Reinbacher (15)
Impact (8 pts) Kyrou, Nelson, Caufield, Brodin, Matheson, etc.	Caufield Guhle Romanov-Dach (4 pts) Petry-Matheson (4 pts) Dobes-Montembeault-Primeau (1 player, 8 pts) (32)	Romanov-Dach (4 pts) Petry-Matheson (4pts) Fowler (16)
Complementary (5 pts) Lehkonen, Tippett, Newhook, D. Savard, etc.	Roy Harris (Wool) Xhekaj-Mailloux-Struble (1 player, 5 pts) (15)	Newhook Hage (10)
Total value of core shares	7 1/2 players: 57 points	8 1/2 players: 80 points
Total core strength	137 points
Percentage of core strength	42%	58%

*ADDED: This table and data were compiled before Laine’s frightening injury in yesterday’s game against the Leafs… Should his injury compromise his future career, we’re confident that the Habs will be able to reinvest their $8.7M salary on a player of similar calibre for the 2026-2027 season.

We understand that this is really a projection, because if we had analyzed the current core, the one that will start the season in Montreal, even without counting Armia, Anderson and company, the percentages would still be in favor of the Bergevin era!

We’d still have 57 points for the old guard, but only 44 for the new, and that’s counting Slaf and Hutson generously as the superstars they’re destined to become, but aren’t yet… as well as an injured Laine.

But even at the end of two years, about 40% of the team’s core strength should still be attributable to the Bergevin era!

In 2026-2027, 5-6 years after the departure of the little guy from Ville-Émard, the legacy will be far from negligible…

Beyond the quantitative, there’s the qualitative…

That said, there’s more to life than numbers.

The Bergevin era laid the foundations for a great culture in the dressing room. In fact, the importance of “character” has not at all disappeared from the vocabulary of the new leaders, either at the draft or during the season. Quite the contrary, in fact.

In fact, last we heard, Suzuki, a unifier who excels under pressure, is this team’s captain.

And if you ask Pierre Gervais, he’ll also tell you that he’s a little better in that role than Max Pac, who was removed from the dressing room by Bergevin…

In that respect, it’s quite extraordinary that a first-round pick in 2007 (^22nd) has been transformed, 11 years later, on the eve of his thirties, into a first-round pick in 2017 who will still be captain of the team in 2030!

Great asset management over a period of 23 years and maybe more! Bergevin’s finest legacy. A master stroke.

For his part, whatever one thinks of Guhle’s “ceiling” height, he is still the one who best embodies the heart and soul of the Montreal defense in its primary function: defending and sacrificing for the team.

Hughes and Gorton clearly recognized the Albertan’s character and self-sacrifice in the contract he signed last summer…

If we look at Caufield, in addition to a good scorer, Timmins seems to have got his hands on a pretty good team player, one who’s appreciated in the locker room. We don’t know if he’ll become the annual 40-goal scorer we were anticipating from his NHL debut, but his goals-per-game average over fairly long stretches tells us he certainly has the potential. In short, he’s certainly part of the team’s soul and identity.

And we haven’t even mentioned the bionic Beauceron, Joshua Roy, or the trio of defensemen (Xhekaj, Mailloux, Struble) from whom at least one good 5th defenseman should emerge, or the excellent line-up of goalkeepers (Montembeault, Primeau, Dobes) from whom we can clearly hope that at least one of them will become an impact goalie.

Oliver Kapanen, 64th overall in 2021? Let’s breathe… Let’s wait… In any case, his chances of staying in Montreal have logically just increased following the injury to his talented compatriot Laine…

Be that as it may, if the Habs string together a few fine seasons crowned by fine playoff runs following their rebuild, Bergevin, Timmins and Churla will deserve a thought for themselves.

Perhaps we’re a little ahead of ourselves today in measuring and qualifying their contribution.