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Top-15 Habs prospects | 2nd place: the “new sensation” Ivan Demidov

 Auteur: ewilson
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Top-15 Habs prospects | 2nd place: the “new sensation” Ivan Demidov
Credit: Capture d'écran / Screenshot
Had I fallen victim to the famous novelty bias last year by placing David Reinbacher ahead of Lane Hutson and Juraj Slafkovsky?

Perhaps a little.

But it’s mainly because these two main competitors in 2023 weren’t exactly what they are today.

On the one hand, Reinbacher, 6’3 210 pounds at 18, had just been drafted 5th overall, had no apparent flaws and filled an arch-important organizational need on the right side of the defense. He seemed the safest prospect of the three.

His potential to become a kind of Pietrangelo also impressed us. And that’s still the case today, despite a few minor reservations.

On the other hand, Slafkovsky’s injury-shortened first season as an 18-year-old was just “okay” enough to make us believe that the Habs had their version of Matthew Tkachuk.

Finally, as for Hutson, the level of confidence that he would reach his full potential with his small frame wasn’t quite the same as it is now.

Now, what about Demidov?

Why isn’t he first in this year’s ranking of the Habs’ top prospects? After all, pretty much everyone sees him as the “Habs’ best prospect”, the “best since Guy Lafleur”, you name it, right?

Well, while I’m absolutely thrilled that the Habs have drafted Demidov – who I personally ranked second only to Celebrini in the last draft – I do have some reservations about whether I’ll see him reach his full potential.

And there’s also the fact that I think we’re still underestimating the man I’ll be ranking first next week…

In short, once again this year, I’m wary of the novelty bias as well as the popularity bias… and invite you to do the same!

 

2. Ivan Demidov | AD/AG | chosen 5th in 2024 | Last ranking : none

Potential

Game breaker. Superstar. Elite.

These are the magic words that Flanelle fans and management are dreaming of, because they’re quite simply the rarest adjectives we’ve heard in Montreal over the past 40 years.

Only a handful of players have earned such appellations in this post-Lafleur era: Naslund, Roy, Richer, Turgeon, Koivu, Théodore, Kovalev, Price and Subban.

Slafkovsky?

Hutson?

We’ll see…

But considering the number of years in total that these players have played at their zenith in the metropolis, we can’t say that the post-Bee Gees crowds at the Forum and Bell Centre have been very spoiled…

Some might even think me generous for including so many names in my list, since of the lot, only Price and Subban were considered among the most sparkling players in their positions over a fairly “long” period. The others only had one or two great years in La Belle Province, and some none at all!

That doesn’t sound like a lot of dreams for young people… And it’s perhaps one of the underestimated reasons why hockey’s popularity has greatly diminished in Quebec over the same period.

Ask a group of 17-year-olds if they know the name of the Canadiens’ captain, and you’d be surprised how many have no idea!

Maybe that’s why they’re trying to feature him in Tim Horton’s ads…

In short, all this to say that since Lafleur, many agree that the Habs have drafted NO player with as much potential as Demidov.

Without having been labelled “generational”, Demidov possesses just about every quality you’d want in an elite forward.

Intelligent, very agile and solid on skates, superior hockey IQ, elite vision, sensational hands, skilful shooter and passer (dual threat), and so on.

At the same age, I wouldn’t hesitate to compare him to a cross between Forsberg and Kucherov.

Not exactly piquette.

Insurance

Of course, when you’re talking about a potential player in this stratosphere, many people will have quite reasonable doubts about the assurance of total success in the NHL.

Especially since we’re talking about an individual who hasn’t yet played for very long at a level worthy of his talent. On this subject, some people are already panicking at seeing him get so little playing time in Russia after 4-5 games… True, Russia wouldn’t have been my first choice as a place to develop him at 18, but hey…

Others, and I’m one of them, will also point to the knee injuries Demidov has already suffered in a caliber (MHL) where the players are on average really not as big, fast and mean as those he’ll face in North America.

But already in the KHL, he has to realize that things go a little faster and hit a little harder, and the more control you have over the puck in the danger zones (zone exits and entrances), the more you expose yourself to violent shocks.

On this subject, Simon Boisvert made a very pertinent comment in the latest episode of his podcast The Process. I totally agree with the friend Boisvert refers to, when he says that Demidov risks exposing himself more to knee injuries, and I would also add groin, hip, thigh and ankle injuries, and even general injuries like a certain… Peter Forsberg.

By going in so wide and cutting to the center so often when entering the opposition’s territory, Demidov is certainly playing in a rather dangerous way, and will be even more so in the NHL.

Saku Koivu, another who skated very wide and often cut to the middle early in his career, learned this the hard way and was never the same player after that sad injury against Chicago when he was flirting with the top of the scoring charts at just 23 years of age in 1996-1997.

On the other hand, Demidov also possesses the qualities most likely to guarantee success for players of his talent: he’s a hard worker, a competitor and a true enthusiast.

Exactly the same qualities as the monstrous Slafkovsky, with the spectacular results we’ve already begun to see…

Finally, and for what it’s worth, I have great respect for the judgement of his agent Dan Milstein.

The latter wasn’t wrong about Alexander Romanov, whom he dared to label against all odds as a top-10 talent in 2018.

So, if he feels that his new client Demidov is at least as talented as Celebrini, and would have at least been seriously considered for the top overall spot in 2024 had he played in America, I tend to give him some credit and reassurance.

But we can’t wait for him to cross over to America…

Value in use

Having said that he was the player drafted by the Habs with the greatest potential since Price, or even Lafleur, you’ll have understood that his anticipated use value is virtually priceless to his bosses.

Suzuki is having trouble asserting himself as the boss on the power play, and perhaps they’d prefer to use Slaf close to the goalie?

No problem, Demidov is there.

The score is 3-1 midway through the game and the Habs need a big play to get back into the game quickly?

Who do we give the puck to? Demidov.

The score is 3-3 with 3 minutes left in the game…

Okay, you get the idea.

We’re not saying there’ll be fireworks every night as soon as he starts skating in the NHL, but with the real thing, it never takes long, especially when they’re 19…

But we’ve already seen what he did in the KHL, the second-best league in the world, in his very first game.

For as long as we’ve been saying that the Canadiens’ biggest problem was a lack of raw talent and, more specifically, the absence ofa player who could single-handedly change the course of a game, well, now they seem to have one popire….

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Trade value

Of course, it’s always a bit preposterous to talk about the trade value of a player who’s just been drafted so high and with such high expectations.

But the idea here is not to discuss trade probabilities, or targets to identify in return. It’s simply to get an idea of what a player like Demidov is and will be worth once he’s settled in and performing well in the NHL.

Obviously, as long as Demidov is playing in Russia, where he may be making a good comeback in the KHL, we won’t have a very good idea of his real value.

After that, if he quickly becomes an NHL star, or even a superstar as we think he will, he’ll be the kind of player with an almost priceless value that we almost never trade, except in sorry situations like that of Matthew Tkachuk in Calgary.

But we already know that Demidov’s enthusiasm for Montreal is incomparable to Tkachuk’s for the land of the Stampede, cowboy hats and big pancakes.

We’ll be back next week with the first-place dividend and the conclusion of this ranking of the 15 most important Habs prospects that many people read religiously year after year! #Thank you

In the meantime, it’s a date with respect in the land of democratic unicorns on Facebook and Twitter!

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