Broberg and Holloway: not matching bids was a no-brainer for the Oilers

As the Oilers approached day seven following the Blues’ hostile offer to Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway, Stan Bowman completed two transactions that might have suggested he was going to match Broberg’s offer, but let Holloway move to St. Louis.

By sending Cody Ceci to the Sharks, the Oilers freed up a few million dollars on the payroll that could have allowed them to retain the services of Philip Broberg.

Still, I wasn’t surprised for a second when it was announced that neither of the two offer sheets would be matched. Were you?

Good riddance!

Why would a Stanley Cup finalist team decide to offer too much money to two young players who willingly put the club in a financial bind?

Knowing full well that a team counting on the services of Connor McDavid must count every penny to present the most competitive team possible on the ice?

Knowing full well that the Oilers will already have to use their imagination to offer a salary increase to Leon Draisaitl, who currently earns $8.1 million, and to the team’s best defenseman, Evan Bouchard, who currently earns only $3.5 million?

Knowing full well that the two young players in question have proven nothing to merit such a salary, and that it’s possible to find similar players at a fraction of the price?

Everyone knows. The Blues have maneuvered in this way to trap the Oilers in their difficult payroll situation. Two players coming on board shows a desire to leave.

Of course, the Oilers were going to refuse.

Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway haven’t yet made their fortune in the NHL. So I understand why they were tempted to accept offers that totaled $9.16 million and $4.58 million respectively, and constituted 63.4% and 51.4% of their career earnings – in just 2 years. Money isn’t everything, but it’s not nothing either.

Broberg and Holloway will also have more room to shine in St. Louis, as they both mentioned at their first press conference with the Blues.

More money, a better opportunity… It’s their decision, and we have to understand it, even if we don’t agree with it.

“I felt that this was a better opportunity for me personally… St. Louis is building something special. It’s got a good young core group of guys so I’m excited to be part of that.”

-Dylan Holloway discusses his decision to sign the @StLouisBlues‘ offer sheet. pic.twitter.com/37jTI4uRrS

– NHL Network (@NHLNetwork) August 21, 2024

Podkolzin can do the job

I’m not saying Vasili Podkolzin, acquired for a fourth-round pick, has the same potential as Dylan Holloway. At $1 million per season, however, it’s a good bet he’ll get the job done. Podkolzin will replace Holloway’s bottom-6 role in 2024-2025; he doesn’t need to replace his long-term potential.

Dylan Holloway, a first-round pick (#14) of the Oilers in 2020, is a 22-year-old left winger who has so far registered 9 goals and 9 assists (18 points – 0.20 pts/game) in 89 NHL games.

Vasili Podkolzin, a first-round pick (#10) of the Canucks in 2019, is a 23-year-old right winger who has so far registered 18 goals and 17 assists (35 points – 0.26 pts/game) in 137 NHL games.

The profile of the two players is relatively similar, and so will be their role. But beyond that, Podkolzin is an above-average defensive player who normally limits mistakes.

In 2021-2022, in 79 games, he finished with an offensive rating 2% above league average, while his defensive rating was 5% above average. In 39 games in 2022-2023, his offensive rating had dropped to 5% below league average, but his defensive rating remained strong at 3% above average.

-OilersNation.com

The Russian forward, who had his best offensive season as a 20-year-old rookie before being used inconsistently with the Canucks, needed a fresh start.

Maybe Dylan Holloway will end up being the better player, given a chance in St. Louis. It’s just not important, in the current salary climate, for the Oilers, and they’ve done relatively well with their replacement pick.

Holloway and a fourth-round pick versus Podkolzin and a third-round pick is far from catastrophic in terms of asset management.

Emberson can do the job too

Ty Emberson really didn’t have a bad rookie season with the very bad San Jose Sharks. On the third pair, the 24-year-old defenseman got away with a record of just -4 in 30 games, while his colleagues on the blue line all did far worse than he did. Through it all, he was the club’s most productive defenseman, offensively, with 0.33 pts/game.

I’ll say it again: Emberson, a third-round pick in 2018, may not have better potential than Broberg, drafted 8th overall a year later. But he can do the job demanded.

In addition to his good forward set…

Gonna repeat myself here. I saw Ty Emberson play 50 times between Wisconsin and Tuscon in the AHL. His skills match the Oil.

His 5v5 pts/60 would have placed him 3rd on Oilers D behind 2/14. He also averaged 3.7 shots/g. 2,14 and 25 were over 6 shots/g.

Analytical trade IMO

– bcurlock (@bcurlock) August 19, 2024

The Athletic considered Ty Emberson, in April 2024, to be one of the league’s best defensive players, assessing his market value at… $5.8M, instead of the $950,000 he earns.

In 2023, we might add, he was named the best defensive defenseman in the East, in the American League.

Broberg, for his part, remains a top-10 pick who never managed to solidify his place with the team – and who no longer wanted to play in Edmonton, after five years of development that led to nothing better.

He dominated the AHL, and his potential remains visible. But now, in August 2024, Broberg is 23 and unproven, and that potential is no longer part of the equation when he signs a contract worth $4.5 million a year.

Extension

–But if you still believe in Philip Broberg at 23, why is it crazy to believe in Podkolzin, who was drafted two spots later?

– For its bottom-6, the team has several other options for next season, and other quality prospects in its ranks. Roby Jarventie, acquired from the Senators, is expected to fight for a roster spot this season. Matthew Savoie, acquired from the Sabres, dominated in his final WHL season and will be interesting to watch over the next few years.

–Don’t forget that the Oilers also lost Cody Ceci in the process. However, they also released $3.25 million, which could be useful for a rental player. In all likelihood, he wouldn’t have been renewed in 2025 anyway.