Top-15 CH prospects: positions 12 to 10

After our introduction and positions 15 to 13, today we continue our countdown of the Flanelle’s most important prospects with three defensemen who have all already had a taste of the AHL and NHL.

In all three cases, you could say that the role of 4th defenseman on a competitive team would be El Dorado.

While anything is still possible for Justin Barron and Arber Xhekaj, the length of the contracts they have both just signed suggests that the next two years will be decisive in determining their place in the Habs hierarchy. But these same contracts, under $1.5 million, also make them quite attractive on the market…

As for Logan Mailloux, after a successful debut at Lava and a first game with the Habs, recent information suggests that he doesn’t have both feet firmly planted in the Montreal region…

With defensive congestion at an all-time high, it’s safe to say that the next few months will see a lot of thinking in the administrative offices about the gap between our three lascars’ use value (scarcity/utility) and their trade value…

12. Justin Barron | Latest ranking: 11th
Potential: 33/40
Insurance: 14.5/20
Usefulness/rarity: 22.5/30
Trade value: 6.5/10
Total: 76.5/100

When he’s on a roll and playing with confidence, Barron – with 94 NHL games under his belt – can look like his team’s best defender. In these 10-15-game stretches, he gets the puck up, scores important goals and does more than his fair share of scoring.

Then he disappears and/or makes some memorable blunders, and is too kind to his opponents.

He looks a bit like the Jeff Petry of the Edmonton years.

As with his former teammate, there’s a 40-50 point potential lurking in Barron, and that’s what makes him so intriguing to his bosses… and to other teams.

Of course, to achieve such seasons, Barron would need to get carte de blanche and significant playing time from his coaches, as well as plenty of power-play minutes.

However, if our reading is anything to go by, it’s not in Montreal that all these conditions will be met in the next few years.

Matheson is still in town and Hutson will certainly have his fair share of the power play. Even Mailloux could get an important audition in this phase of the game if the context is right.

In the medium term, this puts Barron on a second or third pair at best, with little opportunity to make his presence felt other than at five-on-five and perhaps at a numerical disadvantage.

In short, Barron, with his new two-year contract just over $1 million, could look like a trade candidate. Young 6’3 right-handed defensemen, recent first-round picks, who skate and shoot the puck like he does, can always make professional scouts and less-wealthy teams at the blue line salivate…

You’d think Hughes would just have to wait for his fish. But in the meantime, there’s nothing to stop the organization from providing Barron with every opportunity in the hope of hatching him for good or boosting his value. Two birds with one stone…

However, Barron will also have to learn to seize these opportunities and, above all, not to let go…

11. Logan Mailloux | Last ranking: 8th
Potential: 33/40
Insurance: 14.5/20
Usefulness/Rarity: 23/30
Trade value: 6.5/10
Total: 77/100

It wasn’t a perfect pro debut for Mailloux in Laval last fall. First, his teammates had to make him understand that delays were unacceptable. Then, without getting into the same stories as in Sweden, there were reports that some of the Ontarian’s off-ice decisions could seriously impair his judgment…

While he seems to have quickly understood the message about the delays, it’s hard to say whether he has the maturity and gumption to survive for long in a “hot” market like Montreal…

That said, on the ice, it’s fair to say that Mailloux, invited to the AHL All-Star Game, had a season that lived up to expectations and finally “earned” a recall for the final game of the season in Montreal, even scoring his first point with the Habs.

Newhook’s new goal-scoring high, Mailloux’s first point in the League!

New career high in goals for Newhook, first career point for Mailloux! #GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/iVmZ6SHmtO

– Montreal Canadiens (@CanadiensMTL) April 16, 2024

Similar in many ways – size, shot, skating quality, vision – Mailloux seems to have more confidence in his abilities than Barron, as well as being sturdier and physically stronger. That’s enough to give him a slight edge over Barron in this ranking.

But all this is theoretical, and the real hierarchy will be established on the ice and in management offices over the coming months. There could be many changes between now and the end of next season…

That said, in terms of trade value and despite his efforts at personal growth, I still believe that not all markets would welcome Logan Mailloux in their dressing room, at least not at a high price.

The Habs therefore still have every interest in maximizing his use value by offering him every opportunity to blossom. In fact, this seems to have been Hughes’ preferred option at the last draft, when, according to a very credible rumour/information, a serious deal involving Mailloux and Zegras was on the table between the Habs and the Ducks.

But no matter where he plays, the rope will always be shorter for Mailloux, and the slightest off-ice misbehaviour could prove very costly.

And in Montreal, that could include simple distractions or unwanted company…

Mailloux won’t tarnish the Habs’ image twice.

We’d like to think he’s fully aware of that…

10. Arber Xhekaj | Last ranking: 9th
Potential: 31.5/40
Insurance: 14.5/20
Usefulness/Rarity: 23.5/30
Trade value: 8/10
Total: 77.5/100

So far, in the 95 games he’s played with the Habs, Xhekaj has shown us some interesting offensive and defensive flashes with his powerful shot, mobility and toughness.

And of course, there’s the dimension of the evil “sheriff” who punishes wrongdoers with his fists.

What he showed us less of, however, was consistency and intelligence in all three zones.

In terms of potential and usefulness, despite an excellent shot and fairly good hands, we’d be very surprised if he were to become the next Sheldon Souray of the Montreal power play. Looking at his competition, he probably won’t get the chance.

But with a little more experience, he could become a fairly reliable five-on-five back and a pillar of the power play, a phase of the game where the Habs haven’t particularly shone in recent years…

We still see him as an excellent ^5th/6th defenseman, capable of special missions higher up the hierarchy if need be. Xhekaj will always make opponents think on the ice, and we can’t wait to see him in a playoff context…

Management seems intent on keeping Xhekaj and making him an important part of the Montreal identity. The drafting of his younger brother also lends credence to this belief. There’s also the fact that Xhekaj’s name “sells” and he’s a crowd favorite. That can’t hurt…

That said, Xhekaj may be a rare specimen, and a defender who is undoubtedly coveted by many GMs due to his often uncertain reading of the game, but he’s not the kind of player who will be systematically pitted against the opposition’s best players. And so, even if some imagine him to be “bigger” than the Olympic Stadium, we still have to be a little cautious about his real usefulness to the Habs.

He doesn’t seem destined to play in the top-4.

Like Mailloux, Barron and the next name on this list, Xhekaj is part of a group of four defensemen for whom everything remains to be proven.

Once again, the next few years, if not months, will serve to untangle all this.

See you next week for the rest!